舆情变动规律初论

舆情是指在一定的社会空间内,围绕中介性社会事项的发生、发展和变化,作为主体的民众对作为客体的国家管理者产生和持有的社会政治态度。因此,它的基本内容可以理解为民众在社会政治方面的群体心理活动。在本质上,舆情则是民众与政府之间利益关系的一种复杂体现。舆情的产生、变化和结束有其自身的规律性。从它的产生看,它是国家管理者“生产”或“管理”的中介性社会事项,包括各类政策、法规、制度、措施以及领袖形象和社会问题等诸多的复杂内容刺激的直接结果;从它的变化和结束看,舆情是随着刺激它产生的各类社会事项的变化和结束的情况而变动的。但是,舆情作为政治性很强的群体心理活动,它的变化和结束又有着自身复杂多变的规则和轨迹:舆情的主要持有者或主体本身的基本构成和政治素质,都会对他们的群体心理活动的具体情形产生影响;民众对过去的一个社会事项曾持有的社会政治态度,会部分地“残留”在他们对一个新的社会事项的心理反应之中。掌握舆情变动规律,对“建立社会舆情汇集和分析机制,畅通社情民意反映渠道”具有重要意义。     

民族地区乡村经济行为模式、动机体系及其变迁研究

民族地区乡村经济中的主导经济行为模式至少存在四种类型。民族地区人们的经济行为大致有三种基本的动机体系。改革开放以来,有五种主要因素在改变着这些经济动机体系和行为模式,一是乡(镇)政府、具有准政府性质的村集体组织以及其他各种组织的推动、示范和劝导作用,二是体制改革的推动或压力,三是文化移入的诱导或冲击,四是内部创新行为的出现,五是特定文化传承的激活。     

Management of Energy Technology for Sustainability: How to Fund Energy Technology Research and Development

Operations management methods have been applied profitably to a wide range of technology portfolio management problems, but have been slow to be adopted by governments and policy makers. We develop a framework that allows us to apply such techniques to a large and important public policy problem: energy technology R&D portfolio management under climate change. We apply a multi‐model approach, implementing probabilistic data derived from expert elicitations into a novel stochastic programming version of a dynamic integrated assessment model. We note that while the unifying framework we present can be applied to a range of models and data sets, the specific results depend on the data and assumptions used and therefore may not be generalizable. Nevertheless, the results are suggestive, and we find that the optimal technology portfolio for the set of projects considered is fairly robust to different specifications of climate uncertainty, to different policy environments, and to assumptions about the opportunity cost of investing. We also conclude that policy makers would do better to over‐invest in R&D rather than under‐invest. Finally, we show that R&D can play different roles in different types of policy environments, sometimes leading primarily to cost reduction, other times leading to better environmental outcomes.     

人力资源管理系统影响企业绩效的复杂性机理——基于高新技术企业的实证研究

破解人力资源管理系统影响企业绩效的机理是战略人力资源管理研究领域的核心问题。基于164家高新技术企业的调查数据,采用层级回归模型检验了人力资源管理系统与企业绩效间的复杂性机理。结果显示,人力资源管理系统对企业绩效的正向直接效应显著,影响二者关系的外生变量是创新战略非高管价值观;人力资本在二者关系间的中介效应不显著,但以组织氛围为控制变量时中介效应有了显著提高;"组织氛围调节下的人力资本中介作用模型"很好地刻画人力资本发挥中介效应的机理。研究结果强化了我们对人力资源管理系统与企业绩效关系机理的认知,同时为高新技术企业管理者在实践中管理员工提供了有益启示。     

Current Constraints and Future Directions for Risk Adapted Land-Use Planning Practices in the High-Density Asian Setting of Ho Chi Minh City

The need to integrate adaptation efforts into land-use planning policies has been only recently recognized in Ho Chi Minh City. The city's latest planning guidance addresses both flooding resilience and mitigation of urban heat. This paper outlines the development contexts and the current barriers for adapted land-use planning within the city. The key challenge for land-use planning is communicating the important functions and services of open and natural urban spaces and effectively guiding the mainly individual developer-driven development. As the realization of non-structural adaptation measures is in strong contrast to the current market-driven private and short-term developer interests, the main development trajectories are questioned and synergies identified.     

Perception of Climate Risk among Rural Farmers in Vietnam: Consistency within Households and with the Empirical Record

Rural farmers in Vietnamese communes perceive climate risk and potential impacts on livelihood within a complex context that may influence individual and household decisions. In a primary survey of 1,145 residents of the Thach Ha district of Ha Tinh province, we gathered data regarding perception about stability in climate, potential risks to livelihood, demographic characteristics, orientation toward risk, and interest in expanding economic activity. Temporal analysis of meteorological and economic indicator data forms an empirical basis for comparison with human perception. We ask the basic question: Are rural farmers’ perceptions of climate consistent with the historical record and reproducible within households? We find that respondents do perceive climate anomalies, with some anchoring on recent extreme events as revealed by climate observational data, and further that spouses disproportionately share perceptions relative to randomly simulated pairings. To put climate‐related risk perception in a larger context, we examine patterns across a range of risks to livelihood faced by farmers (livestock disease, pests, markets, health), using dimension reduction techniques. We find that our respondents distinguish among potential causes of low economic productivity, with substantial emphasis on climate‐related impacts. They do not express uniform concern across risks, but rather average patterns reveal common modes and distinguish climate concern. Still, among those expressing concern about climate‐related risks to livelihood we do not find an association with expressed intention to pursue changes in economic activity as a risk management response.     

Predicting the Risk of Biological Invasions Using Environmental Similarity and Transport Network Connectedness

Understanding the risk of biological invasions associated with particular transport pathways and source regions is critical for implementing effective biosecurity management. This may require both a model for physical connectedness between regions, and a measure of environmental similarity, so as to quantify the potential for a species to be transported from a given region and to survive at a destination region. We present an analysis of integrated biosecurity risk into Australia, based on flights and shipping data from each global geopolitical region, and an adaptation of the “range bagging” method to determine environmental matching between regions. Here, we describe global patterns of environmental matching and highlight those regions with many physical connections. We classify patterns of global invasion risk (high to low) into Australian states and territories. We validate our analysis by comparison with global presence data for 844 phytophagous insect pest species, and produce a list of high‐risk species not previously known to be present in Australia. We determined that, of the insect pest species used for validation, the species most likely to be present in Australia were those also present in geopolitical regions with high transport connectivity to Australia, and those regions that were geographically close, and had similar environments.     

A Data‐Driven Approach to Assessing Supply Inadequacy Risks Due to Climate‐Induced Shifts in Electricity Demand

The U.S. electric power system is increasingly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of extreme climate events. Supply inadequacy risk can result from climate‐induced shifts in electricity demand and/or damaged physical assets due to hydro‐meteorological hazards and climate change. In this article, we focus on the risks associated with the unanticipated climate‐induced demand shifts and propose a data‐driven approach to identify risk factors that render the electricity sector vulnerable in the face of future climate variability and change. More specifically, we have leveraged advanced supervised learning theory to identify the key predictors of climate‐sensitive demand in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Our analysis indicates that variations in mean dew point temperature is the common major risk factor across all the three sectors. We have also conducted a statistical sensitivity analysis to assess the variability in the projected demand as a function of the key climate risk factor. We then propose the use of scenario‐based heat maps as a tool to communicate the inadequacy risks to stakeholders and decisionmakers. While we use the state of Ohio as a case study, our proposed approach is equally applicable to all other states.     

Farmers’ Risk‐Based Decision Making Under Pervasive Uncertainty: Cognitive Thresholds and Hazy Hedging

Researchers in judgment and decision making have long debunked the idea that we are economically rational optimizers. However, problematic assumptions of rationality remain common in studies of agricultural economics and climate change adaptation, especially those that involve quantitative models. Recent movement toward more complex agent‐based modeling provides an opportunity to reconsider the empirical basis for farmer decision making. Here, we reconceptualize farmer decision making from the ground up, using an in situ mental models approach to analyze weather and climate risk management. We assess how large‐scale commercial grain farmers in South Africa (n = 90) coordinate decisions about weather, climate variability, and climate change with those around other environmental, agronomic, economic, political, and personal risks that they manage every day. Contrary to common simplifying assumptions, we show that these farmers tend to satisfice rather than optimize as they face intractable and multifaceted uncertainty; they make imperfect use of limited information; they are differently averse to different risks; they make decisions on multiple time horizons; they are cautious in responding to changing conditions; and their diverse risk perceptions contribute to important differences in individual behaviors. We find that they use two important nonoptimizing strategies, which we call cognitive thresholds and hazy hedging, to make practical decisions under pervasive uncertainty. These strategies, evident in farmers' simultaneous use of conservation agriculture and livestock to manage weather risks, are the messy in situ performance of naturalistic decision‐making techniques. These results may inform continued research on such behavioral tendencies in narrower lab‐ and modeling‐based studies.     

Intergenerational and International Discounting

A discount rate for the consumption of future generations is typically composed of two parts. One is a "pure" time preference for immediate over postponed consumption, the other a declining marginal utility as consumption increases. The costs of greenhouse abatement, however, for at least the first 50 years, will be borne by the developed countries; the benefits will accrue to the presently undeveloped. Pure time preference always relates to one's own consumption; it has no relevance here. Consumption transfers over time will be from richer to poorer, from lower to higher marginal utility. It is a foreign aid program and it ought to have to compete with more direct foreign aid, which can benefit the very poor rather than their much-better-off descendants.