从学龄人口变动看未来山东省基础教育与师范教育的发展

本文对山东省学龄人口的变动趋势作了预测,同时对未来山东省中小学的教师需求量进行了测算,据此,对未来山东省基础教育与师范教育的发展作了展望.     

中德跨文化商务谈判行为分析

作者在德国组织了 110组的中德商务模拟谈判,收集了相关的数据,并对该数据进行了量化分析。分析结果表明,在中德跨文化商务谈判中,谈判者的个人特征影响谈判者的策略选择,而谈判者所采取的策略又对谈判结果起着至关重要的作用。同时,保持良好的谈判气氛和高度忍耐力对于取得好的谈判结果也很重要。最后给出了中德跨文化商务谈判行为的一些基本特征,并提供了相应的现实操作建议。     

Eliciting Information from Experts on the Likelihood of Rapid Climate Change

The threat of so‐called rapid or abrupt climate change has generated considerable public interest because of its potentially significant impacts. The collapse of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation or the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, for example, would have potentially catastrophic effects on temperatures and sea level, respectively. But how likely are such extreme climatic changes? Is it possible actually to estimate likelihoods? This article reviews the societal demand for the likelihoods of rapid or abrupt climate change, and different methods for estimating likelihoods: past experience, model simulation, or through the elicitation of expert judgments. The article describes a survey to estimate the likelihoods of two characterizations of rapid climate change, and explores the issues associated with such surveys and the value of information produced. The surveys were based on key scientists chosen for their expertise in the climate science of abrupt climate change. Most survey respondents ascribed low likelihoods to rapid climate change, due either to the collapse of the Thermohaline Circulation or increased positive feedbacks. In each case one assessment was an order of magnitude higher than the others. We explore a high rate of refusal to participate in this expert survey: many scientists prefer to rely on output from future climate model simulations.     

Green roofs are not created equal: the hydrologic and thermal performance of six different extensive green roofs and reflective and non-reflective roofs in a sub-tropical climate

Green roofs have the potential to retain stormwater on the roof surface and lower the thermal loading on buildings. Because of this, the greatest environmental benefits from green roofs might be achieved in subtropical climates characterized by high temperatures and intense rain events. There is, however, little research to support this. In a replicated study in Texas, we compared the performance of six different extensive green roof designs vegetated with native species, to non-reflective (black) roofs, and reflective (white) roofs. Preliminary hydrologic and thermal profile data indicated not only differences between green and non-vegetated roofs, but also among green roof designs. Maximum green roof temperatures were cooler than conventional roofs by 38°C at the roof membrane and 18°C inside air temperature, with little variation among green roofs. Maximum run-off retention was 88% and 44% for medium and large rain events but some green roof types showed very limited retention characteristics. These data demonstrate indicate that: 1. Green roofs can greatly affect the roof temperature profile—cooling surface layers and internal space on warm days. 2. Green roofs can retain significant amounts of rainfall, this is dependent on the size of the rain event and design and can fail if not designed correctly. We suggest that as green roofs vary so much in their design and performance, they must be designed according to specific goals rather than relying on assumed intrinsic attributes.     

Adapting to Climate: A Case Study on Riverine Flood Risks in the Netherlands

Climate change may well lead to an increased risk of river floods in the Netherlands. However, the impacts of changes in water management on river floods are larger, either enhancing or reducing flood risks. Therefore, the abilities of water-management authorities to learn that climate and river flows are changing, and to recognize and act upon the implications, are of crucial importance. At the same time, water-management authorities respond to other trends, such as the democratization of decision making, which alter their ability to react to climate change. These complex interactions are illustrated with changes in river flood risk management for the Rhine and the Meuse in the Netherlands over the last 50 years. A scenario study is used to seek insight into the question of whether current water-management institutions and their likely successors are capable of dealing with plausible future flood risks. The scenarios show that new and major infrastructure is needed to keep flood risks at their current level. Such a structural solution to future flood risks is feasible, but requires considerable political will and institutional reform, both for planning and implementation. It is unlikely that reform will be fast enough or the will strong enough.     

American Risk Perceptions: Is Climate Change Dangerous?

Public risk perceptions can fundamentally compel or constrain political, economic, and social action to address particular risks. Public support or opposition to climate policies (e.g., treaties, regulations, taxes, subsidies) will be greatly influenced by public perceptions of the risks and dangers posed by global climate change. This article describes results from a national study (2003) that examined the risk perceptions and connotative meanings of global warming in the American mind and found that Americans perceived climate change as a moderate risk that will predominantly impact geographically and temporally distant people and places. This research also identified several distinct interpretive communities, including naysayers and alarmists, with widely divergent perceptions of climate change risks. Thus, "dangerous" climate change is a concept contested not only among scientists and policymakers, but among the American public as well.     

Cultural Circuits of Climate Change in U.K. Broadsheet Newspapers, 1985–2003

This article argues for a cultural perspective to be brought to bear on studies of climate change risk perception. Developing the "circuit of culture" model, the article maintains that the producers and consumers of media texts are jointly engaged in dynamic, meaning-making activities that are context-specific and that change over time. A critical discourse analysis of climate change based on a database of newspaper reports from three U.K. broadsheet papers over the period 1985-2003 is presented. This empirical study identifies three distinct circuits of climate change-1985-1990, 1991-1996, 1997-2003-which are characterized by different framings of risks associated with climate change. The article concludes that there is evidence of social learning as actors build on their experiences in relation to climate change science and policy making. Two important factors in shaping the U.K.'s broadsheet newspapers' discourse on "dangerous" climate change emerge as the agency of top political figures and the dominant ideological standpoints in different newspapers.     

Russia and the Kyoto Protocol: The Long Road to Ratification

The Russian Federation played a crucial role in the Kyoto Protocol's ratification. Indeed, after the United States withdrawal, its ratification turned out to be indispensable for the Protocol to become legally binding. In early 2002, Russia decided to initiate the ratification process. However, the country long hesitated to fulfil its promises, and for the last two years it sent numerous contradictory signals with respect to its position on climate policy. Consequently, the factors that shape Russia's behaviour in the context of climate negotiations have received increasing attention. The main focus has been on the economic and international aspects motivating the Russian strategy. This paper attempts to complete this analysis by concentrating on a further feature that significantly contributed to Russia's final decision, namely, domestic forces. These factors have often been overlooked in the discussion of the Russian strategy. In order to fill this gap, this paper reconstructs the Russian ratification process, trying to identify the main domestic players and their role.     

论债转股与国有企业脱困

实行"债转股",这是我国国有企业改革道路上迈出的关键性的一步,无疑将给一部分国有企业特别是大中型企业脱困带来极大的推动作用.但是面对历史形成的制度性痼疾,我们不能单纯依赖"债转股"的形式,而更应注重国有企业产权制度的改革与创新.因为制度的改革与创新才是治本之策,何况就债转股实践而言,我们面前尚有许多工作要做.国有企业脱困任重而道远.     

西部大开发与转变高校毕业生择业观念

西部大开发是党中央作出重要战略决策 ,人才是西部大开发的关键 ,高校毕业生应转变观念立志在西部大开发中建功立业