Feeling at Risk Matters: Water Managers and the Decision to Use Forecasts

Experts contend that weather and climate forecasts could have an important role in risk management strategies for community water systems. Yet, most water managers make minimal use of these forecasts. This research explores the determinants of the use of weather and climate forecasts by surveying managers of community water systems in two eastern American states (South Carolina and the Susquehanna River Basin of Pennsylvania). Assessments of the reliability of weather and climate forecasts are not driving their use as water managers who find forecasts reliable are no more likely to use them than are managers who find them unreliable. Although larger systems and those depending on surface water are more likely to use forecasts for some (but not all) purposes, the strongest determinant of forecast use is risk perceptions. Water managers who expect to face problems from weather events in the next decade are much more likely to use forecasts than are water managers who expect few problems. Their expectations of future problems are closely linked with past experience: water managers who have had problems with specific types of weather events (e.g., flood emergencies) in the last 5 years are likely to expect to experience problems in the next decade. Feeling at risk, regardless of the specific source of that weather-related risk, stimulates a decision to use weather and climate forecasts.     

Welfare,Premarital Childbearing,and the Role of Normative Climate: 1968–1994

Nationally representative, longitudinal survey data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics were used to examine the conditions under which welfare benefit levels affected the likelihood that low‐income women age 15–24 bore their first child prior to marriage. Benefit levels had a positive effect on premarital childbearing during the 1980s and early 1990s but not during the 1970s or late 1960s. The effect of benefit levels was also stronger where community attitudes toward premarital sex were more tolerant than where attitudes were less tolerant, but this did not account for the varying effect of benefit levels over time. The study introduces a new way of measuring normative climate using attitudinal data from the General Social Surveys.     

启文述源

启文于东汉出现 ,作为奏议文字长期存在于传统公文之中 ,齐梁时文体论者即在此一职能上认识启文体。而刘宋时启文内容发生显著变化 ,使之渐近于应用文之书牍类。启文的衍变过程 ,是其文学化的进程 ,也是文体蜕变和融生的过程。     

改革开放以来中国城市化水平的地区差异变动分析

利用1982—2000年基于我国第五次人口普查标准的城市化水平修正值,分析了改革开放以来我国城市化发展的地域差异变动型式,指出,(1)我国城市化发展的省际相对差距趋于缩小,速度趋缓;(2)三大地带内部的省际差距缩小,地带间的省际差距扩大;(3)在假定人均GDP、初始工业结构等制约条件后,城市化速度(1990—2000)与初始城市化水平(1990)为典型的条件趋同;(4)乡镇企业发展、外资利用是导致东、中西部之间具有不同城市化发展稳态的关键因素.     

哲学路径的转变：马克思对“个人”的拯救

漫长的西方哲学史对“个人”的研究都殊途同归,湮灭了个人的丰富特性、充实性而让他变得干瘪、片面。这是哲学开启之时的追根究底式思维方式必然的结局。纵观西方哲学史,柏拉图、亚里士多德、黑格尔等虽然对个体属性都有所研究,但受此限制,最终都抛弃了它们。要拯救个人的丰富特性,就必须开辟一条崭新的路径。马克思的“改造世界”式哲学实现了这样的转变,让“个人”丰富并充实了起来。     

通胀与通缩的交替换位及政策选择

世界各个国家在经济运行中通胀与通缩及其交替换位既有必然性又有偶然性。中国目前处在已完成了由通胀到通缩的转换但尚未实现由通缩到通胀转换的阶段。中国应在避免通胀与通缩频繁交替换位的前提下 ,采取有效政策实现由通缩到可容忍的通胀即温和通胀转换 ,实现经济的低通胀高增长。     

一般购买力会计不会破坏资产负债表平衡关系的数学推导分析

在物价变动会计理论中 ,一般购买力会计既不会破坏资产负债表地平衡关系 ,又不会破坏资产负债表与利润及利润分配表钩稽关系的根本原因在于购买力损益的计算方法。本文通过数学模型 ,并利用会计恒等式 ,由浅入深地分析了购买力损益的计算过程。     

Approaches to the study of urban ecosystems: The case of Central Arizona—Phoenix

CAP LTER focuses on an arid-land ecosystem profoundly influenced, even defined, by the presence and activities of humans and is one of only two LTER sites that specifically studies the ecology of an urban system. In this large-scale project, biological, physical, and social scientists are working together to study the structure and function of the urban ecosystem, to assess the effects of urban development on surrounding agricultural and desert lands, and to study the relationship and feedbacks between human decisions and ecological processes.Our interdisciplinary investigations into the relationship between land-use decisions and ecological consequences in the rapidly growing urban environment of Phoenix are of broad relevance for the study of social ecological systems and cites in particular. Refinements in our conceptual model of social ecological systems focuses our attention on recognizing the scales and periodicities of ecological and human phenomena, understanding the means and impacts of human control of variability in space and time, and finally an evaluation of the resilience of various aspects of socio-ecological systems especially their vulnerabilities and their potential for adaptive learning.     

尊重历史事实克服主观臆断——关于邹韬奋"九一八"转变论的反思

文章一反传统邹韬奋“九一八转变论”的思路 ,指出邹韬奋同中国共产党的关系 ,在特定的历史条件下经历了不理解→理解→亲密合作的过程 ,提出了实事求是地研究邹韬奋思想发展的新思路     

企业治理结构变迁与会计规则制定权演变

会计规则制定权是企业剩余索取权的重要组成部分,企业治理结构发生变迁,剩余索取权将发生变化,会计规则制定权的契约安排也必然随之发生相应改变。不同企业治理结构下,会计规则制定权的契约安排具有不同模式。中国特殊的企业产权制度安排决定了中国企业会计规则制定权的契约安排具有自己独特的路径与变迁规律。