金融期权定价模型与金融风险管理

金融期货是一种具有独特功能的非常重要的衍生金融工具 ,对规避金融风险有重要意义 ,其作为一种金融资产表现为一种特定的权利。B -S期权模型开创性地表达了这种期权定价理论 ,二项式模型则将各种金融期权定价模型推向简化和实用化。     

对我国即将推出"股指期货"的思考

中国加入WTO后，中国的金融业正面临着巨大的挑战。金 融市场的国际化趋势给中国的证券市场提出了更高的要求，单一的投资工具已远远不能满足 投资者的需要。为了更好地与国际接轨，参与国际竞争，中国引入创新的金融衍生工具势在 必行。本文就开发中国股指期货的必要性及由此可能产生的问题提出见解。     

论国际资本流动与金融危机的关系--兼析加入WTO后不断加剧的国际资本流动给我国带来的风险

20世纪90年代以来,各种类型的金融危机频繁爆发,对危机国乃至世界经济产生了巨大的影响。这些危机不但使国际学术界和各国政府都高度重视,而且也掀起了探索、研究金融危机的热潮。从国际资本流动的机制和国际资本流动的规模这两个角度,探析了国际资本流动与金融市场动荡和金融危机的关系,并分析了国际资本的充分流动,可能给加入WTO后的我国带来的风险与影响。     

农户种植业风险及其认知比较研究

通过对浙江、上海、山东、湖北和安徽五个不同地区660户农户实地访问调查资料的分析发现:目前我国农户从事种植业生产经营的风险主要来源于气候等自然因素、农产品市场价格和农业生产资料价格;农户更关注农产品产量而非市场价格波动;在地区和作物层面上,具有不同生产特征和家庭特征的农户对种植业生产经营风险的认知具有一定的差异性;目前农户弱化种植业风险主要倾向于依靠自身的力量而较少依靠农业保险、农业组织及政府等外部力量。政府需要从完善信息发布体系、加强对农资市场管理、促进农村合作经济组织及农业保险的发展等方面入手,提高农户弱化生产经营风险的能力。     

Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment: Information Tools for Community Adaptation to Changes in Climate or Land Use

To inform local and regional decisions about protecting short-term and long-term quality of life, the Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment (CARA) provides data and tools (for the northeastern United States) that can help decision makers understand how outcomes of their decisions could be affected by potential changes in both climate and land use. On an interactive, user-friendly website, CARA has amassed data on climate (historical records and future projections for seven global climate models), land cover, and socioeconomic and environmental variables, along with tools to help decision makers tailor the data for their own decision types and locations. CARA Advisory Council stakeholders help identify what information and tools stakeholders would find most useful and how to present these; they also provide in-depth feedback for subregion case studies. General lessons include: (1) decision makers want detailed local projections for periods short enough to account for extreme events, in contrast to the broader spatial and temporal observations and projections that are available or consistent at a regional level; (2) stakeholders will not use such a website unless it is visually appealing and easy to find the information they want; (3) some stakeholders need background while others want to go immediately to data, and some want maps while others want text or tables. This article also compares what has been learned across case studies of Cape May County, New Jersey, Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and Hampton Roads, Virginia, relating specifically to sea-level rise. Lessons include: (1) groups can be affected differently by physical dangers compared with economic dangers; (2) decisions will differ according to decision makers' preferences about waiting and risk tolerance; (3) future scenarios and maps can help assess the impacts of dangers to emergency evacuation routes, homes, and infrastructure, and the natural environment; (4) residents' and decision makers' perceptions are affected by information about potential local impacts from global climate change.     

“七月流火”与北豳物候俗解

"七月流火"是《诗经·豳风·七月》中的名句,历来解释"火"为心宿之大火星,"流"为向西偏下。其意是言七月大火星向西偏下预示七月天已寒凉,是古代天文现象的真实记录。但据《七月》产地北豳的物候特征及《诗经》对"火"字的运用体例考量,以直觉通俗的眼光释"七月流火"为七月天热得像下火像着火,非但与豳地气候相应而未尝不可,或许与古诗的原貌更为切贴。     

对建立我国外资银行风险防范法律机制的探讨

介绍了外资银行风险防范的法律机制的具体内容,围绕风险监管指出金融宏观调控法律机制、外资银行风险监管法律机制、外资银行风险监管国际合作法律机制三者之间的关系。     

Intuitive Toxicology: Expert and Lay Judgments of Chemical Risks

Human beings have always been intuitive toxicologists, relying on their senses of sight, taste, and smell to detect harmful or unsafe food, water, and air. As we have come to recognize that our senses are not adequate to assess the dangers inherent in exposure to a chemical substance, we have created the sciences of toxicology and risk assessment to perform this function. Yet despite this great effort to overcome the limitations of intuitive toxicology, it has become evident that even our best scientific methods still depend heavily on extrapolations and judgments in order to infer human health risks from animal data. Many observers have acknowledged the inherent subjectivity in the assessment of chemical risks and have indicated a need to examine the subjective or intuitive elements of expert and lay risk judgments. We have begun such an examination by surveying members of the Society of Toxicology and the lay public about basic toxicological concepts, assumptions, and interpretations. Our results demonstrate large differences between toxicologists and laypeople, as well as differences between toxicologists working in industry, academia, and government. In addition, we find that toxicologists are sharply divided in their opinions about the ability to predict a chemical's effect on human health on the basis of animal studies. We argue that these results place the problems of risk communication in a new light. Although the survey identifies misconceptions that experts should clarify for the public, it also suggests that controversies over chemical risks may be fueled as much by limitations of the science of risk assessment and disagreements among experts as by public misconceptions.     

“十一五”期间江苏安全生产面临的潜在风险、主要特征及其防范对策

“安全生产风险”是指在生产过程中因安全生产隐患可能引发的,致使大面积生命财产安全遭受重大损失的灾难性社会后果,它已成为现代社会典型的“社会风险”之一。“十一五”期间,江苏安全生产仍面临危险化学品灾害、人员密集场所特大事故及道路桥梁安全隐患三大潜在风险的挑战。江苏安全生产潜在风险具有分布行业的差异性、表现形式的多样性、诱发原因的趋同性、识别信号的隐蔽性、防范要求的系统性等主要特征。防范安全生产风险应在实施“科学发展”战略、深化专项整治、加强源头治理、建立健全安全生产控制指标体系与安全生产激励约束机制等方面制定相应对策。     

构建人与自然生命共同体：全球气候治理难题的破解之道

全球气候变化关乎人类社会的可持续发展,合作治理是应然需求。然而,人类行为对气候的破坏、气候灾害的流动性增加了跨国治理难度,特别是受全球气候治理公共产品供给不足、全球气候治理体系领导力匮乏等因素影响,全球气候合作治理仍面临难题。面对新形势与新挑战,中国倡导构建人与自然生命共同体,为全球气候治理贡献了中国智慧,提供了破解全球气候合作治理难题的路径选择。作为全球气候治理的新理念、新思路,人与自然生命共同体主张坚持人与自然和谐共生、坚持以人为本、坚持多边治理、坚持实践导向,将推动各国以合作共赢为共同体意识,加快经济社会的全面绿色转型,积极承担节能减排主体责任,助推国际社会完善全球气候治理体系,维护国际气候公平正义,实现全球气候善治。