Preference stability and substitution of indifferents: a rejoinder to Seidenfeld

Seidenfeld (Seidenfeld, T. [1988a], Decision theory without 'Independence' or without 'Ordering', Economics and Philosophy 4: 267-290) gave an argument for Independence based on a supposition that admissibility of a sequential option is preserved under substitution of indifferents at choice nodes (S). To avoid a natural complaint that (S) begs the question against a critic of Independence, he provided an independent proof of (S) in his (Seidenfeld, T. [1988b], Rejoinder [to Hammond and McClennen], Economics and Philosophy 4: 309-315). In reply to my (Rabinowicz, W. [1995], To have one's cake and eat it too: Sequential choice and expected-utility violations, The Journal of Philosophy 92: 586-620), in which I argue that the proof is invalid, Seidenfeld (Seidenfeld, T. [2000], Substitution of indifferent options at choice nodes and admissibility: A reply to Rabinowicz, Theory and Decision 48: 305–310 this issue) submits that I fail to give due consideration to one of the underlying assumptions of his derivation: it is meant to apply only to those cases in which the agent's preferences are stable throughout the sequential decision process. The purpose of this note is to clarify the notion of preference stability so as meet this objection.     

论培根归纳逻辑

弗兰西斯·培根在对旧逻辑批判的基础上,创立了以观察和实验为基础的归纳法--科学归纳法.培根归纳法的问世,创立了近代归纳逻辑的第一个形态.培根归纳法的特质包括其归纳法是一种排除归纳法,突出了分析方法,注重证据的质量,与实验自然科学的兴起相适应,其归纳方法论包含着某些朴素的辩证法因素.尽管,培根的归纳法有一定的局限性;但是,培根的归纳法在近现代归纳逻辑的发展中的影响和作用是不容低估的.应当用唯物辩证法的观点和方式,对培根的归纳法进行认识和评价.     

Testing psychological forward induction and the updating of beliefs in the lost wallet game

This paper studies psychological forward induction and the updating of beliefs in the lost wallet game (Dufwenberg & Gneezy, 2000), which is required to derive a prediction for guilt averse agents. Our experiment tests whether the second movers psychologically induct forward and update their beliefs after observing their paired first mover's decision by eliciting beliefs with different second mover knowledge of first mover decision, depending on treatment. We find that second movers do update their beliefs conditional on receiving information on the first mover’s action, supporting psychological forward induction.     

On the Necessity of Structure in an Arbitrary World

Abstract

The term response generalization has been poorly defined and has, over many years, been a source of controversy for applied researchers who must grapple with results that show changes in behaviors outside of the response class targeted by their intervention. The present discussion seeks to differentiate response generalization from such terms as response covariation and induction. Instead, response generalization is redefined in the context of response classes and concurrent schedules of reinforcement.     

关于绿蓝悖论的消解

邓桂芳和徐敏对笔者关于绿蓝悖论的解决方案主要提出两点质疑。对其第一点质疑,笔者指出,直接观察属于感受性,而感受性本质上是私人性的,因此,关于两个证据陈述是否表述同一观察需要给出具有公共性的论证,此类论证包括这两个证据陈述是否可以互推。对其第二点质疑,只需对证据陈述稍加补充便可解决。     

MML clustering of multi-state,Poisson, von Mises circular and Gaussian distributions

Minimum Message Length (MML) is an invariant Bayesian point estimation technique which is also statistically consistent and efficient. We provide a brief overview of MML inductive inference (Wallace C.S. and Boulton D.M. 1968. Computer Journal, 11: 185–194; Wallace C.S. and Freeman P.R. 1987. J. Royal Statistical Society (Series B), 49: 240–252; Wallace C.S. and Dowe D.L. (1999). Computer Journal), and how it has both an information-theoretic and a Bayesian interpretation. We then outline how MML is used for statistical parameter estimation, and how the MML mixture modelling program, Snob (Wallace C.S. and Boulton D.M. 1968. Computer Journal, 11: 185–194; Wallace C.S. 1986. In: Proceedings of the Nineteenth Australian Computer Science Conference (ACSC-9), Vol. 8, Monash University, Australia, pp. 357–366; Wallace C.S. and Dowe D.L. 1994b. In: Zhang C. et al. (Eds.), Proc. 7th Australian Joint Conf. on Artif. Intelligence. World Scientific, Singapore, pp. 37–44. See http://www.csse.monash.edu.au/-dld/Snob.html) uses the message lengths from various parameter estimates to enable it to combine parameter estimation with selection of the number of components and estimation of the relative abundances of the components. The message length is (to within a constant) the logarithm of the posterior probability (not a posterior density) of the theory. So, the MML theory can also be regarded as the theory with the highest posterior probability. Snob currently assumes that variables are uncorrelated within each component, and permits multi-variate data from Gaussian, discrete multi-category (or multi-state or multinomial), Poisson and von Mises circular distributions, as well as missing data. Additionally, Snob can do fully-parameterised mixture modelling, estimating the latent class assignments in addition to estimating the number of components, the relative abundances of the parameters and the component parameters. We also report on extensions of Snob for data which has sequential or spatial correlations between observations, or correlations between attributes.     

浅析卡尔·波普尔对归纳法的质疑

20世纪初涌现的系列科技成果使归纳法遭受质疑，波普尔利用证伪主义对归纳法进行了彻底地批判，并提出了科学知识增长模式。卡尔·波普尔彻底反对归纳法的思想存在着局限性，归纳并不象卡尔·波普尔说的那样，应当从科学方法中剔除出去，其实它和演绎一样，是人们认识的基本方法之一，不可或缺。     

两阶段供应链碳排放目标减排量分配研究

由于不同企业减排成本和减排效率有所差异,将目标减排量在供应链企业间进行合理分配是顺利完成减排目标的关键。本文研究了制造商和零售商组成的两阶段供应链的既定目标减排量分配问题,考虑企业减排对产品需求有正向影响,根据制造商分配和零售商分配两种分配方式,以及制造商领导、零售商领导和垂直纳什三种渠道权力结构,构建了六种决策模型,分析分配方式和渠道权力结构对分配决策和供应链成员以及系统利润的影响。研究表明,在三种渠道权利中：由减排对需求影响大的企业进行分配,制造商和零售商会分摊减排量,由减排对需求影响小的企业进行分配,减排量全部由对方企业承担,市场需求更大;作为领导者比作为跟随者承担更多减排量;由减排对需求影响大且减排效率低的企业分配减排量,可以实现减排量在供应链企业间分摊以及系统利润最大化,由减排对需求影响小且减排效率低或略高于对方的企业分配减排量,虽然系统利润最优,但是以单个企业承担全部减排量为代价。     

休谟问题及其启示

在近代认识史上,休谟问题是向人类理性提出的最大挑战。该问题的核心就是休谟对因果关系和归纳法所做的两个著名论证。休谟问题之产生,完全是由经验主义的原则而导致的。经验主义否认人类有能力突破感官的限制,主张人的认识只能封闭在自身的感觉经验之中。这就是问题的症结所在。所以,要真正解决休谟问题,就必须跳出经验主义的牢笼。     

数字彩色电視同步机时序邏輯設計

电视同步信号发生器(简称同步机)是稳定、准确传输图像的关键.本文讨论数字集成化彩色同步机的总体方案设计和用“时钟分频-逻辑归纳法”设计同步机各脉冲定时和形成部分的方法.根据设计电路制作了样机,具有定时准确性高,性能稳定的特点.