Self enforceable paths in extensive form games

This paper explores the idea of forward induction for extensive games. It interprets this idea as a general behavioral principle the technical details of which have to be worked out in each specific case. Because of its cooperative ingredient, this approach should be contrasted with the usual approaches of non-cooperative game theory which are rooted in individual rationality.     

FORWARD INDUCTION IN GAMES WITH AN OUTSIDE OPTION

We provide eductive foundations for the concept of forward induction, in the class of games with an outside option. The formulation presented tries to capture in a static notion the rest point of an introspective process, achievable from some restricted preliminary beliefs. The former requisite is met by requiring the rest point to be a Nash equilibrium that yields a higher payoff than the outside option. With respect to the beliefs, we propose the Incentive Dominance Criterion. Players should consider one action more likely than another whenever the former is better than getting the outside option for more conjectures over his rival's actions. We apply this model to the case where the subgame is a coordination game with a conflict between payoff dominance and risk dominance. Our results provide support for dominance solvability, but not for Van Damme's notion of forward induction. We show how the forward induction logic helps to select the Pareto dominant equilibrium. This is the case whenever player 1's act of giving up the outside option reverses the incentive dominance relations among 1's pure actions in the subgame.     

任鸿隽的科学方法思想初探

任鸿隽认为,科学方法是科学之本质所在,是西方的"为学之本",具有广泛的文化意义;科学方法包括归纳与演绎,但根本所在是归纳法,因为归纳法注重事实,是不断改良进步的;科学方法在实施方面还包括观察、实验、概推、假设等具体环节.总之,任鸿隽是近代中国真正对科学方法做出全方位阐述和宣传的第一人,其思想有着深远的影响.     

师范生对教师角色的认同是影响高师心理学课程教学效果的主要因素

师范生对教师角色的认同是影响高师心理学课程教学效果的主要因素如果说高等师范教育不重视对学生进行心理素质训练，那是不公平的。教师的学识结构包括普通文化知识修养，所教专业科学知识修养及教育理论知识修养。高师所设教育理论课程乃是高师培养师范生职业素质，训练...     

基于产业发展指数的区域主导产业选择研究——以辽宁省为例

区域主导产业的选择与确定作为产业结构合理化和高级化的衡量标准,对经济发展具有关键作用,高效益、优势强的主导产业能推动产业群向高效率方向迈进,所以,现阶段科学的选择辽宁省主导产业对于未来的产业结构升级具有特定意义。文章基于影响力系数和感应度系数等产业发展指数,以辽宁省为例,通过对42×42部门的投入产出分析得知,化学工业和金属冶炼及压延加工业可以初步确定为辽宁省的主导产业;电力、电热的生产和供应业、通用专用设备制造业作为潜在主导产业进行培育和发展;石油和天然气开采业等五大产业作为支柱产业的培育对象。并根据该结论提出相应的政策建议。     

语言研究的“重归纳”与“倡演绎”述论

受传统朴学的影响,中国语言研究领域向来重视＂从材料出发＂的归纳方法,划定语料范围后的＂穷尽式＂研究成为倍受推崇的研究模式;随着西方语言学理论的更新,以及语言研究由＂描写＂转向＂解释＂,引进新理论用于汉语研究的演绎方法越来越具有不容忽视的优势。语言研究方法由＂重归纳＂转向＂倡演绎＂,是语言科学发展的历史必然。     

双向反思与殊途同归——论主流艺术和消费文化

社会变革导致艺术的社会角色和价值观发生变化,一方面,体制中的主流艺术和职业化的方向开始游离于民众的需要;另一方面,大众消费文化可能导致艺术的商品化和世俗化。艺术家的社会角色被异化,艺术在变异。究竟是现存的主流艺术有缺欠,还是消费文化的走向需要质疑？对各种社会需求是顺从、迎合,还是无视、对立？抑或调理性的满足？这需要双向的反思和沟通,以求在终极目标上殊途同归。     

"李约瑟之迷"的文化求解

文化作为社会存在的一种形式,有着鲜明的独立性.她通过"潜移默化"的方式塑造着人们的文化品格.正是这只看不见的"文化之手"的强力作用,才使得近代科学技术没有从处于世界领先地位的中国古代文明中演绎出来.缕析影响科学技术发展的传统文化因素,对于摒弃落后观念、营造符合时代要求的科技文化,提高全民族的科学文化素质,促进我国重新回到世界科技强国的行列,有着积极的理论意义和现实意义.     

The gradual decline of cooperation: Endgame effects in evolutionary game theory

The article provides an evolutionary analysis of a finitely iterated Prisoner's Dilemma. The backward induction reasoning for a breakdown of cooperation in this game is transformed to an evolutionary degradation effect. After the introduction of random variations in the strategies' population size, however, cyclical variations of cooperativeness may appear. A breakdown of cooperation is no longer inevitable. An analysis for all possible payoff relations in Prisoner's Dilemma matrices shows that only four qualitatively different dynamical flows can emerge.     

基于粗糙集的不一致信息系统规则获取方法

本文提出了一种基于粗糙集的既能学习决策性分类规则也能学习非决策性分类规则的方法,目的是获得更一般、更可靠的分类规则,并设计了相应的算法。算法的基本思想是允许用户在学习分类过程中指定三个参数:最小的支持度、分类规则必须满足的一致度、覆盖度,据此推导出满足参数要求的规则。最后将该方法应用于一个算例中,提取了满足给定参数阈值的规则。该方法在处理噪音数据及大型数据库分析等方面具有较强功能。