城市发展的可持续性测评初探

城市发展是否是可持续的已成为人们关注的焦点,如何测度与评价城市发展的可持续性尚无统一的认识。文章设计了一个评价城市可持续发展的框架,借助于常用统计数据,并利用应用统计学方法筛选出一个由17个指标构成的测评指标体系,运用层次分析法确定权重,并以天津市为实证案例,测度并评价其1990—1999年这10年间发展的可持续性。     

面向基础教育课程改革的教师教育职前培养模式探析

在师范教育转型的过程中，师范院校应转变传统的人才培养观念。针对基础教育课程改革，积极进行教师教育职前培养模式创新探索，培养具有综合的学科知识和专业化教育水平的新型教师，适应基础教育课程改革的需要。     

试论清代两湖地区书院的刻书业及其兴盛原因

历代书院刻印的图书,在版本学上称为"书院本"。其版本价值较高,历来倍受文士学者重视。清代两湖地区的书院兴盛且日益官学化,书院刻书业比较发达,留下大量作品。究其原因,主要包括社会、政治、经济、文化和学术五个方面。     

A qualitative comparative analysis of strategies for an ageing society, with special reference to pension and employment policies

The primary purpose of this study is to typify the respondent strategies of the OECD countries based on the interconnected structure of income and employment guarantees. More specifically, this article seeks to typify welfare policies into four types (welfare-to-work, welfare emphasis, labour emphasis, market emphasis) based on the leniency of the pension system and active state intervention in employment security. With the resultant four types, this article then places them as the dependent variable while incorporating per capita GDP, aged dependency ratio, pension maturity level, union density, constitutional structure index and degree of decommodification as causal variables. Through this process, this article aims to derive the decisive variable for each type through qualitative comparative analysis.     

Bayesian analysis of elapsed times in continuous‐time Markov chains

The authors consider Bayesian analysis for continuous‐time Markov chain models based on a conditional reference prior. For such models, inference of the elapsed time between chain observations depends heavily on the rate of decay of the prior as the elapsed time increases. Moreover, improper priors on the elapsed time may lead to improper posterior distributions. In addition, an infinitesimal rate matrix also characterizes this class of models. Experts often have good prior knowledge about the parameters of this matrix. The authors show that the use of a proper prior for the rate matrix parameters together with the conditional reference prior for the elapsed time yields a proper posterior distribution. The authors also demonstrate that, when compared to analyses based on priors previously proposed in the literature, a Bayesian analysis on the elapsed time based on the conditional reference prior possesses better frequentist properties. The type of prior thus represents a better default prior choice for estimation software.     

民族自治地方农村养老问题与对策初探——以黔东南州锦屏县为例

民族自治地方农村养老工作与构建社会主义和谐社会、社会主义新农村建设、“三农”问题等紧密相关，养老工作能否解决好直接影响到农村的社会稳定、社会的和谐发展和“三农”问题的解决。民族自治地方农村经济相对落后、经济发展不平衡、人口分布不均衡、农村老年人口日益增多、农民工大量外出等现实，给传统养老方式带来了历史性的冲击。这要求建立具有时代特色和地方特色的养老方式。本文在进行充分的实地调查、分析黔东南苗族侗族自治州锦屏县农村现行的养老方式现状、养老方式存在问题的基础上，结合当地实际情况和借鉴其他地方的成功养老方式，提出具体可行的对策。     

长三角近海海洋环境管理立法研究

长江三角洲经济区海洋经济发展势头强劲，但同时其近海也饱受海水水质恶化、赤潮灾害频发、海洋生态非健康等环境问题的困扰。长三角近海环境问题的解决需要一种特殊的环境管理方式，即区域海洋环境管理，这是海洋环境管理理论不断发展创新的成果，可以起到解决自然区域与行政区划之间的矛盾、协调多方利益和中观管理的有益补充作用。本文拟探讨通过贯彻区域海洋环境管理理念，创设适用于长三角毗邻海域的、针对海洋环境管理的区域性法律文件，来治理与维护这一海洋区域的环境，从而为其海洋经济发展创造有利条件，提供良好的环境依托，使发展走上可持续的道路。     

新形势下党风建设环境的思考

党的作风集中体现着党的形象 ,党的形象关系着党在人民群众中的威望和人心的向背 ,由此可知党的作风建设的重要性和必要性。但要搞好新形势下的党风建设 ,惟有对现阶段党风建设面临的有利和不利的环境有清醒的认识 ,才能找出党风建设的良策所在 ,使党风建设落到实处     

教学方法的多向度变革——《马克思主义基本原理概论》新教材教学法的研究与实践

为了创造性地贯彻《马克思主义基本原理概论》新教材的精神，课程组制定了“共性中创个性”的教学战略，在坚持共性、弘扬共性的基础上创造个性化教学特色，创造出了“坚持集体备课，鼓励多样化教学”的教学模式。     

Neighborhood Structure,Social Organization,and Number of Short‐Term Sexual Partnerships

We examine the relationship between neighborhood structural characteristics, social organization, and the sexual partnering practices of adults. Analyses of 1990 census and 1995–1997 survey‐based data on Chicago neighborhoods and adult sexual activity reveal for men a number of neighborhood influences on sexual partnering practices. First, residential stability is negatively associated with having a short‐term sexual partner in the last year. Second, neighborhood social ties are positively associated with short‐term sexual partnering in neighborhoods with low levels of collective efficacy—the combination of cohesion and shared expectations for beneficial action among neighbors—but this effect is substantially reduced as collective efficacy increases. Moreover, neighborhood collective efficacy and social ties mediate the effect of residential stability on sexual partnering practices. Neighborhood characteristics were not associated with short‐term sexual partnering for women.