基于生态位理论的企业资源外包决策研究

通过生态学中的生态位理论的测度（生态位宽度和生态位重叠）,分别从整体意义上的价值链和局部意义上的功能链测算出企业综合生态位和各功能元生态位,针对不同占位特征的功能元生态位做出初步资源外包决策,并根据企业综合生态位和企业未来发展战略对资源外包决策进行修正,最后通过企业生态位和功能元生态位测度值在内部环境中的优劣势和外部环境的生态位夹缝空间的机会和威胁给出了企业资源外包决策建议模型。     

我国农民专业合作社产权结构实证研究——以江苏省为例

产权是农民专业合作社制度安排的核心。当前,我国农民专业合作社的产权呈现出由少数＂农村精英＂控制、普通社员依附的现象,表现为少数核心社员占多数出资额,并由此掌控了合作社的决策权和收益权。在当前我国农村地区人力、物质资本极度匮乏的情况下,这种产权结构具有一定的合理性,但却背离了合作社的初衷。造成这种状况的根本原因在于合作社对＂公平＂与＂效率＂的兼顾,使其陷入理想与现实的两难。当前,应从物质资本和人力资本等方面入手,完善我国合作社的发展环境,使其达到为小农谋利益的目的。     

政策咨询网络的构建与运行机制设计——以澳门特别行政区为例

强化和完善政策咨询是提升公共政策民主性和科学性的重要方面。如何从网络和机制上做好政策咨询工作是当前公共政策理论和实践关注的焦点。经过十多年实践探索,澳门特区并不缺乏政策咨询的组织设计,唯多元咨询机构之间缺少必要的协调、合作和贯通。新一届特别行政区政府立志在科学决策上有所作为,但要实现这些目标,必须善用专家和民间智慧,建立起结构良好的政策咨询网络。同时,应在组织设立的基础上,设计出多元、多层咨询机构间的协调、协同与协商机制。     

普通高校科研“弱势群体”的成因分析及解决对策

由于教师的科研水平参差不齐,并且在教师队伍中确实存着科研"弱势群体",它直接影响着学校的教学质量和科研水平,制约着高校科研发展的进程.分析科研弱势群体的成因找出对策才是各类高校解决问题的关键,因此,笔者对科研弱势群体的成因和对策做了一些探讨.     

Disassembly to order system under uncertainty

This paper presents a multi-criteria optimization model of a disassembly-to-order (DTO) system under uncertainty. The goal of the proposed model is to determine the best combination of the number of each product type to be taken back from the last user and/or collectors. The EOL products are then disassembled for the retrieval of reusable components and materials and resold in order to meet a certain level of demand under a variety of physical, financial and environmental constraints. The surplus components are recycled, stored for usage in subsequent periods or properly disposed. The problem is modeled as a multi-criteria decision-making problem under uncertainty, where the aspiration levels for various goals are more likely to be in the “approximately more (less) than” and/or “more (less) is better” form. We employ fuzzy goal programming technique to solve the problem. When solved, the model provides the number of EOL products to be taken back as well as the number of items reused, recycled, stored and disposed. The values of a host of other performance measures are also obtained, including total profit, materials and items sales revenues, take back cost, transportation costs as well as costs of preparation of EOL products, destructive disassembly, non-destructive disassembly, recycling, storage and disposal. A case example is presented to illustrate the model's implementation.     

建构具有中国特色的行政决策优化的有效机制

行政决策是行政管理的首要环节,也是行政管理各项职能的基础。行政决策的优化是实现科学、高效行政管理的重要前提。建构具有中国特色的行政决策优化的有效机制应包括:民主决策机制、公民参与机制、决策监督机制、法治保障机制和文化导引机制。     

Risk Management for Hazardous Materials Transportation: A Local Study in Lyons

A probabilistic risk assessment study has been undertaken in the French city of Lyons. The issue was to know whether it was justified to forbid hazardous material lorries in the city center and to divert them through the suburbs. Therefore, two routes, the City Center route and the Suburban route were compared. This paper describes the analysis and shows how the results were used in the decision-making process. It also lists the difficulties that are encountered when trying to incorporate formal risk analysis into actual decision-making processes. The risk analysis showed that rerouting is an effective option with respect to all criteria. The mathematical expectation of the number of deaths is divided by three, the reduction on the annual frequency of catastrophic accidents is even more important (about one order of magnitude for accidents involving more than 50 deaths). The spatial analysis proved that the risk was more evenly distributed along the Suburban route. However, the annual expected number of death is low: 0.5 in the worst case. So traditional decision-making approaches do not indicate the necessity of rerouting. Such a situation is believed to be typical for risk management of major hazards. In Lyons, the use of a very small risk aversion factor is sufficient to justify the rerouting option on a formal decision-aiding basis. This is rather unusual, but it is thought that the recognition of the importance of risk aversion by the decision-makers themselves is a very positive outcome from this study.     

时变需求环境下供应链缺货时点与补货次数优化研究

本文基于博弈模型,研究在时变需求和无替代供应源的环境下供需双方缺货时点和补货次数的纳什均衡问题,并通过算例,具体分析了供需之间的关系,主要结论有:配送商的补货次数越大,零售商库存成本越小;补货次数优化后零售商与配送商的库存成本明显下降。     

蒋正华教授:亦官亦民永葆本色,温文儒雅学界楷模

蒋正华教授是国际知名的人口学家 ,他跨越多个学科 ,在人口学、自动化控制、计算机信息管理、经济学和社会学等多个学科领域都卓有建树 ;特别是在人口学领域 ,他构建的中国区域模型生命表和创造的JPOP 1算法得到了国际社会的广泛认同。在人口与计划生育、人口与经济社会发展关系规律、可持续发展和社会保障支持决策系统的研究等方面 ,他也取得了开创性的贡献。他还是一名国家领导人 ,以学者的专业素养和温文博雅进行着卓有成效的领导工作。     

The Role of Perceived Control and Overconfidence in Pathological Gambling

Two studies sought to determine whether perceived control has different effects on confidence assessment and betting decisions among pathological and problem gamblers than among non-problem gamblers. In Study 1, 200 college students who were frequent gamblers (80 female and 120 male, median age 20) completed the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS) and then engaged in a task in which they answered questions, assessed confidence in each answer, and considered bets on their answers that were fair if they were well-calibrated, but unfavorable if they were overconfident. Probable pathological and problem gamblers earned significantly fewer points than non-problem gamblers. This was due to greater overconfidence among pathological and problem gamblers, which led to systematically less favorable bets. In Study 2, using 384 participants (105 female and 279 male, median age 20), control was independently manipulated and bets were constructed to make point value independent of overconfidence. Problem and pathological gamblers showed both greater overconfidence and greater bet acceptance. They were less affected by control in their betting decisions than non-problem gamblers, but more affected in the slope of their betting function. It is concluded that pathological and problem gamblers process information about confidence and control differently from non-problem gamblers.