“Modest doubt is called the beacon of the wise”—Incorporating uncertainty in risk analysis from Shakespeare to today

“Modest doubt is call'd the beacon of the wise.”—William Shakespeare, Troilus and Cressida. Although the character Hector warns his fellow Trojans with this line not to engage in war against the Greeks, Shakespeare's works are replete with characters who do not incorporate modest doubt, or any consideration of uncertainty, in their risk decisions. Perhaps Shakespeare was simply a keen observer of human nature. Although risk science has developed tremendously over the last five decades (and scientific inquiry over five centuries), the human mind still frequently defaults to conviction about certain beliefs, absent sufficient scientific evidence—which has effects not just on individual lives, but on policy decisions that affect many. This perspective provides background on the Shakespearean quote in its literary and historical context. Then, as this quote is the theme of the 2023 Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, we describe how “modest doubt”—incorporating the notion of uncertainty into risk analysis for individual and policy decisions—is still the “beacon of the wise” today.     

幼儿游戏背后的教师专业决策：是否与如何介入

基于美国引导游戏理论和欧美新兴的游戏本位学习理论,深度思考教师在放手游戏中的"为"与"不为"、"如何为之"这一现实问题。教师对幼儿游戏的"为"与"不为"在本质上都是教师的专业决策,游戏背后的教师专业决策包括信念、知识、判断、支持、反思五个构成要素,以及基于充分、细致观察的价值判断,基于丰富、系统知识的专业支持和基于反思、调整的学习发展的闭环过程。为保障幼儿教师专业决策能力的提升,可通过明确多重角色、丰富四类知识、遵循两条路向等路径获得发展。     

Evidence in Norwegian child protection interventions – Analysing cases of familial violence

How is expert evidence used in care order proceedings when children are considered for foster care placement because of familial violence? What are important factors and how do the decision-makers use and evaluate evidence from specialists and experts? In this in-depth analysis of 104 published care order decisions from the Norwegian County Boards, I investigate how decision-makers use and evaluate evidence from expert witnesses to determine whether a care order may be granted. The analysis shows that the evidence largely revolves around social functioning, care context and topics about how parents and children relate to each other. Led by the law, the decision-makers use this evidence to determine whether the child's situation is harmful, whether support services are viable and whether a care order is in the child's best interests. I find that decision-makers draw unevenly on evidence with regards to these legal requirements, and that the use predominantly defers to expert authority. However, there is also evidence of independent reasoning, where deferral to the epistemic authority of the experts is weakened. This is shown through evaluative and critical assessments and scrutiny of the disciplinary evidence.     

试析政府决策的行为取向

政府决策活动是一个动态过程。在决策的不同阶段,政府出于其内外因素表现出积极主动行为与消极被动行为,理性与非理性行为,利益、价值倾向性行为。研究政府决策行为多样性,旨在规范政府决策行为,提高政府决策质量。     

试析我国政府决策民主化制约性因素及突破思路

决策民主化是现代政府决策的必然要求,目前,我国的决策体制不健全,决策民主参与范围狭窄,决策监督滞后,这些都成为决策民主化的制约性因素。因此必须健全决策体制,扩大决策的民主参与范围,加强决策监督,以提高决策民主化水平,促进决策的科学化。     

Repronormativity in cisgender men's reasons why they would not use womb transplant technology to become pregnant

Much reproductive scholarship presumes that cisgender men do not wish to become pregnant. And within scholarly discussions on womb transplant technology in particular, cis men's desires to be pregnant are constructed as ‘insubstantial’, and cis men are positioned as neither desiring nor requiring womb transplant technology. Repronormativity, including the assumption that pregnancy and gestational desire are antithetical to cis masculinity/manhood, underpins both bodies of work. As part of a study that sought to visibilise, and analyse narratives of, cis men's desires to be pregnant and/or gestational parents, six cis men were asked whether they would use womb transplant technology to enable their pregnancy if womb transplant technology included men as recipients. The majority of participants said they would not do so, giving different reasons. Using a narrative-discursive approach to analyse their responses, I argue that their varied responses disrupt and re-circulate normative discourses on sex/gender, pregnancy, parenthood, and (assisted) reproduction. Ultimately, their varied reasons trouble the normative assumption that cis men do not want to be pregnant and would not take up the opportunity to do so, because they are men.     

Personality predictors of career exploration: A meta-analysis

In this meta-analysis, correlations of personality traits and career decision-making self-efficacy with self and environmental career exploration were estimated across 71 samples and a pairwise sample of 19,846. Traits included the Big Five personality traits, shyness, locus of control, vocational decision styles, and stress. Many measures of career exploration were based on scores of self and environmental exploration on the Career Exploration Survey. Results varied by characteristics with the largest effects for locus of control, vocational decision style: thinking-feeling and self-efficacy. Environmental exploration and self-exploration were moderately correlated and demonstrated different relations with traits that were consistent with theory. Self-exploration was related to openness to experience and unrelated to extraversion, while environmental exploration was correlated with extraversion. Both were similarly correlated with conscientiousness such that conscientious individuals were more likely to engage in career exploration.     

基于蚁群BP神经网路算法的六维力传感器解耦研究

针对传统BP神经网络在六维力传感器解耦训练过程中,由于其初始参数的选取不确定性导致神经网络出现震 荡、收敛速度缓慢和陷入局部极值等问题,提出一种基于蚁群BP神经网络算法并应用于六维力传感器解耦研究。该算 法利用蚁群算法在种群寻优方面的优越性,通过局部和全局信息素更新相结合的方式更新信息素,提高蚁群算法搜索的 效率,为BP神经网络提供一组最优的训练初始参数,网络收敛速度得到很大地提高,同时局部极值和震荡等缺点也有一 定的改善。实验仿真结果表明,在六维力传感器神经网络模型训练过程中,达到同样的目标误差,基于蚁群BP神经网络 算法的迭代次数Ⅳ比传统算法少50%,运行时间r快60%。这说明蚁群BP种经网络算法在六维力传感器解耦研究中 有着很好的应用效果。     

论我国高校处分学生行为司法审查的转型∗ ———走向判断过程审查法

目前,我国高校处分学生行为司法审查的研究和实践仍具有一定分散性,对统一行动的指导与 推动力不足。 以“开除学籍”处分为例,于案例和理论分析基础上,可提炼出高校处分学生行为司法审查 演进的整体印象与导向脉络,即在尊重高校“学术自由”的前提下,“裁量及其司法控制”被引入诸如开除 学籍等严重影响学生权利的处分中,并以对现代正当行政程序的精妙结构、科学技术的准确理解和应用 为指导,提炼出“判断过程审查法”作为司法审查域内形式主义法治与实质法治主义互动、融合的最佳方 案。 这种转型对充分保障受处分者权益、提升高校管理水平,指导和推进理论深入,统一司法内部秩序和 外部行动,推动司法审查自主、自觉地整体性变革意义重大。     

群集智能研究进展

群集智能是指众多行为简单的个体相互作用过程中涌现产生的整体智能行为.从复杂系统研究的角度入手,以群集智能的基本原理为线索,对其系统结构、运行机理、建模工具、算法模型和典型应用等内容进行全面论述.首先围绕以蚁群和鸟群为代表的群集智能系统结构,分析说明了其中的个体属性、行为规则和交互方式,进而阐述和剖析了群集智能中的反馈机制和学习机制.在给出若干常用群集智能建模工具介绍的基础上,对蚁群觅食、蚁群聚类、蚁群劳动分工和鸟群觅食等4类群集智能模型进行了细致深入的探讨,旨在归纳提炼形成基于群集智能的复杂系统建模与仿真的一般性规律.最后综述了群集智能在工程优化、生产管理、机器人学、数据分析与模式识别等领域的典型应用情况并展望了群集智能的发展前景.