Testing for Serial Independence: Beyond the Portmanteau Approach

Portmanteau tests are typically used to test serial independence even if, by construction, they are generally powerful only in presence of pairwise dependence between lagged variables. In this article, we present a simple statistic defining a new serial independence test, which is able to detect more general forms of dependence. In particular, differently from the Portmanteau tests, the resulting test is powerful also under a dependent process characterized by pairwise independence. A diagram, based on p-values from the proposed test, is introduced to investigate serial dependence. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposal is evaluated in a simulation study and with an application on financial data. Both show that the new test, used in synergy with the existing ones, helps in the identification of the true data-generating process. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Similar coefficient for cluster of probability density functions

In this article, we propose a new criterion to evaluate the similarity of probability density functions (pdfs). We call this the criterion on similar coefficient of cluster (SCC) and use it as a tool to deal with overlap coefficients of pdfs in normal standard on [0;1]. With the support of the self-update algorithm for determining the suitable number of clusters, SCC then becomes a criterion to establish the corresponding cluster for pdfs. Moreover, some results on determination of SCC in case of two and more than two pdfs as well as relations of different SCCs and other measures are presented. The numerical examples in both synthetic data and real data are given not only to illustrate the suitability of proposed theories and algorithms but also to demonstrate the applicability and innovation of the proposed algorithm.     

The dual-continuum approach: An extension of the contingency theory of strategic conflict management

This article examines the limitations of using a single advocacy-accommodation continuum when depicting organizational stance and movement in conflict situations (Cancel et al., 1997). The authors argue that advocacy and accommodation can vary independently in response to a variety of contingent factors. To comprehensively capture the locations and motions that are possible in organization-public conflicts, a two-continuum approach is proposed. Separate assessment of the effects of contingency variables on advocacy and accommodation can be used to accurately locate organizational stance along advocacy and accommodation continua. Strategic alternatives that cannot be depicted using a single continuum (such as favorable alignment of organization advocacy/public accommodation or unilateral change on the part of one party) can be captured if separate continua are employed. By depicting initial stances and desired directions of movement for both the organization and public, the dual-continuum approach can also provide practical guidance to public relations professionals in selecting strategies for achieving preferred outcomes and evaluating their effectiveness.     

Aggregating classifiers via Rademacher–Walsh polynomials

Methods are proposed to combine several individual classifiers in order to develop more accurate classification rules. The proposed algorithm uses Rademacher–Walsh polynomials to combine M (≥2) individual classifiers in a nonlinear way. The resulting classifier is optimal in the sense that its misclassification error rate is always less than, or equal to, that of each constituent classifier. A number of numerical examples (based on both real and simulated data) are also given. These examples demonstrate some new, and far-reaching, benefits of working with combined classifiers.     

论《埤雅》声训推源

《埤雅》以声符释义贯穿全书，偶有穿凿附会之处。书中广泛运用声训之法，力求阐释事物命名之意，对声训推源进行了有益的探索，具有一定的科学性与进步性。     

词块与语言教学

不少语言学家在语言研究过程中对词汇和句法之间存在的同时兼有词汇和句法特征的板块结构给予了关注，并由此提出了词汇法教学。词块自身的特点和优势决定了加强词块教学可以提高学习者语言产出的能力，即英语口语能力及写作能力。     

What is a person‐centred approach? Familiarity and understanding of individualised funding amongst carers in New South Wales

Person‐centred approaches place individuals with a disability at the centre of decision making, with their carers and family invited to be partners in the process. Rather than being required to fit within existing service programs, person‐centred approaches enable individuals to choose the support options that best meet their needs. In order to facilitate this, person‐centred approaches will be accompanied by the introduction of individualised funding. This means the individual will be provided with funding to purchase services of their choosing. Given these significant changes occurring in the disability sector, Carers NSW surveyed informal carers of people with a disability to identify what they knew about person‐centred approaches and how they felt about their introduction. Survey results indicate that there is a need to increase the capacity and willingness of carers significantly in order to engage with person‐centred approaches and individualised funding. Carers require targeted and comprehensive information about these concepts in order to understand fully the changes occurring within the disability sector. These findings also indicate specific areas that need to be addressed in order to increase carers' awareness of these concepts and also to address existing negativity and confusion.     

Bayesian adaptive dose‐escalation designs for simultaneously estimating the optimal and maximum safe dose based on safety and efficacy

The main purpose of dose‐escalation trials is to identify the dose(s) that is/are safe and efficacious for further investigations in later studies. In this paper, we introduce dose‐escalation designs that incorporate both the dose‐limiting events and dose‐limiting toxicities (DLTs) and indicative responses of efficacy into the procedure. A flexible nonparametric model is used for modelling the continuous efficacy responses while a logistic model is used for the binary DLTs. Escalation decisions are based on the combination of the probabilities of DLTs and expected efficacy through a gain function. On the basis of this setup, we then introduce 2 types of Bayesian adaptive dose‐escalation strategies. The first type of procedures, called “single objective,” aims to identify and recommend a single dose, either the maximum tolerated dose, the highest dose that is considered as safe, or the optimal dose, a safe dose that gives optimum benefit risk. The second type, called “dual objective,” aims to jointly estimate both the maximum tolerated dose and the optimal dose accurately. The recommended doses obtained under these dose‐escalation procedures provide information about the safety and efficacy profile of the novel drug to facilitate later studies. We evaluate different strategies via simulations based on an example constructed from a real trial on patients with type 2 diabetes, and the use of stopping rules is assessed. We find that the nonparametric model estimates the efficacy responses well for different underlying true shapes. The dual‐objective designs give better results in terms of identifying the 2 real target doses compared to the single‐objective designs.     

转变发展方式必须率先转变调整结构的方式

面对新的发展形势和经济任务，应该明确提出产业结构调整的新思路，即政府创造条件，靠市场来调结构。“十二五”期间，最优先考虑的问题应该是如何改革、如何转变结构调整的方式。倘若“调结构”的方式、特别是实体经济中制造业“调结构”的方式不能率先改革，转变发展方式的诸多目标就有可能落空。“十二五”期间的政策落脚点在于继续加快培育“统一开放、竞争有序”的现代市场体系的进程，切实贯彻中央一再强调的“资源配置要建立在市场调节的基础上”的施政原则，把产业结构的市场化调节落到实处。对于以制造业为基础的结构存量调整的方式，要基本实现从行政化到市场化的转变，强化金融、商贸等服务业的疏导、中介功能，创建有利于推进服务业深度参与存量结构调整和产业升级的体制政策环境。     

科学确定职业院校招生规模的方法研究

在研究职业教育城乡一体化的过程中,课题组研究探讨出一套根据一个地区或一个职业院校的教育资源合理确定这一地区或者这一学校的招生规模,达到充分利用教育资源,获得最好的教育效益和经济效益的各种定量方法,从而为教育管理部门和职业院校运用数学和经济学理论合理确定招生规模提供参考。