Major Accidents (Gray Swans) Likelihood Modeling Using Accident Precursors and Approximate Reasoning

Compared to the remarkable progress in risk analysis of normal accidents, the risk analysis of major accidents has not been so well‐established, partly due to the complexity of such accidents and partly due to low probabilities involved. The issue of low probabilities normally arises from the scarcity of major accidents’ relevant data since such accidents are few and far between. In this work, knowing that major accidents are frequently preceded by accident precursors, a novel precursor‐based methodology has been developed for likelihood modeling of major accidents in critical infrastructures based on a unique combination of accident precursor data, information theory, and approximate reasoning. For this purpose, we have introduced an innovative application of information analysis to identify the most informative near accident of a major accident. The observed data of the near accident were then used to establish predictive scenarios to foresee the occurrence of the major accident. We verified the methodology using offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico, and then demonstrated its application to dam breaches in the United Sates.     

网络环境下服务科学与创新管理研究展望

基于网络环境的服务发展与创新已成为经济发展的新引擎。本文在分析网络环境下服务特征基础上，探讨了其对服务科学与创新管理研究的影响。结合我国社会经济发展对现代服务快速增长的需求，本文提炼了服务科学研究的三类基本科学问题，包括服务价值的内涵与度量，服务资源的要素及其价值生成，和服务关系的界定与形成问题；提出了服务与创新管理的四个重要研究领域，即：服务生态系统的形成与演化，服务资源要素的组织与协调，服务的关联与融合和社会服务运作管理问题。在四个重要研究领域的进一步分析中，论文以一个异质数据服务资源的组织与融合为例，描述了服务资源组织与协调的一个具体问题，说明了已有研究方法解决该问题的困难，和未来该问题研究需要关注的重点；另以平台服务中基于价值和关系的服务定价问题为例，说明服务关联与融合研究的挑战及其未来研究的努力方向。     

汉语网络语言影响内地藏生汉语习得的原因与对策

汉语网络语言影响藏生汉语习得的情感，影响藏生汉语习得中“可理解的语言输入”的数量和质量，影响藏生对汉语社会文化的适应和趋同程度。这些影响主要与汉语网络语言使用失范、内地藏生汉语习得与汉语网络环境脱节、汉藏文化障碍影响汉语网络语言的推介等因素相关。据此，文章从二语习得的角度提出解决对策：培养藏生对汉语网络语言的价值观和情感；引导和规范汉语网络语言，优化网络环境；寻求藏生汉语习得与网络社会生活的契合点，提高“可理解的语言输入”的数量和质量。     

基于神经网络的测井评价油层污染研究

利用测井资料,在剖析传统的测井评价油(气)层污染方法的基础上,介绍了利用BP神经网络这一现代数理统计新技术来实现测井多参数评定油气层污染程度的方法和技巧;以华北二连油田实际资料为例,建立了测井判释油气层污染的数学物理模型,并进行了模拟预测。结果表明:该法简便可行,对污染评价参数预测精度较高,对污染程度评价合理准确,可作为油(气)层污     

Social network and content analysis of the North American Carbon Program as a scientific community of practice

The North American Carbon Program (NACP) was formed to further the scientific understanding of sources, sinks, and stocks of carbon in Earth's environment. Carbon cycle science integrates multidisciplinary research, providing decision-support information for managing climate and carbon-related change across multiple sectors of society. This investigation uses the conceptual framework of communities of practice (CoP) to explore the role that the NACP has played in connecting researchers into a carbon cycle knowledge network, and in enabling them to conduct physical science that includes ideas from social science. A CoP describes the communities formed when people consistently engage in shared communication and activities toward a common passion or learning goal. We apply the CoP model by using keyword analysis of abstracts from scientific publications to analyze the research outputs of the NACP in terms of its knowledge domain. We also construct a co-authorship network from the publications of core NACP members, describe the structure and social pathways within the community. Results of the content analysis indicate that the NACP community of practice has substantially expanded its research on human and social impacts on the carbon cycle, contributing to a better understanding of how human and physical processes interact with one another. Results of the co-authorship social network analysis demonstrate that the NACP has formed a tightly connected community with many social pathways through which knowledge may flow, and that it has also expanded its network of institutions involved in carbon cycle research over the past seven years.     

Optimizing global thermal coal shipments

Thermal coal is used to produce energy; with changing emissions standards and advents in renewable technology, the thermal coal market has seen significant transformation over the past decade. We develop a mixed-integer optimization problem that seeks to minimize shipment costs while meeting demand for thermal coal, and which respects quality constraints, supply limits, and port capacity; we use this model to analyze the following scenarios: (i) a counterfactual setting in which we compare historical shipping patterns to model results using a 2012 base year; (ii) the explicit effect of Chinese mandates on coal shipments; (iii) the impact on our shipping patterns of reduced Chinese and Indian demand; (iv) the effects of the Baltic Dry Index and oil prices; and (v) a comparison of shipments prior and subsequent to Panama Canal expansion. Our work can be used to inform policy, study responses to variable price and demand scenarios, and provide insight to both coal producers and consumers about the international coal market. For example, removal of mandates set by the Chinese government to fill its own demand decreases coal flows from Northern to Southern China by 56%, which has a spill-over effect on European and American markets; and, expansion of the Panama Canal leads to only modest shipping increases through the canal (6.7%), with more coal originating from Colombia serving Asian demand.     

水驱砂岩油藏孔喉结构变化的三维网络模拟

以长期水驱实验为基础，建立了等效水驱砂岩储层孔喉结构变化的三维网络模拟模型，结合三维微粒运移机制和有限差分求解方法，得到了长期水驱砂岩油藏孔喉结构变化规律：（1） 冲刷后喉道半径呈增加趋势，喉道半径变化范围变大，极小喉道半径呈微弱减小趋势；（2） 孔隙网络模型中冲刷半径扩大的孔道分布形式与原始孔隙网络结构密切相关，并非所有的大孔道都串联起来贯穿岩芯孔隙网络的两个端面，但入口端和出口端部分大孔道相互连通，形成端面上的大孔道网络群。网络模拟注水结果结合采油井测试，可为注水剖面的调整提供更加可靠的依据。     

青春文学的崛起

＂青春文学＂的崛起是新世纪以来中国文坛最靓丽的景观之一。以＂80后＂为主体的青春文学作家,创作了一大批风靡国内的、以青少年为消费群体的文学作品,并在文学市场上取得令前辈作家侧目的成绩。从崛起到分化,再到逐渐成熟,青春文学走过了一段波澜壮阔的历程,成为和＂纯文学＂并峙的文学种类。尽管青春文学还显稚嫩,但随着青春文学作家的成长,我们有理由相信他们能写出无愧于时代的作品。     

网络怨恨的价值位移——基于舍勒现象学的分析

当前网络表达中到处弥漫的怨恨情绪,使技术理性的价值产生位移或曰颠覆,正价值如正义、公平、为承认而斗争等,在怨恨的情绪及其网络表达中导向负价值:网络暴政、人的主体性的消解,使人陷入"单向度的人"的危险。当下网络表达的无序和失序,正是怨恨的现象学呈现。因而,透过现象学观察的怨恨及其网络表达,或许可为我们反思批判当下和建构新的网络伦理提供一个新的思路。     

网络文学版权保护探析

侵犯网络文学著作权尤其是信息网络传播权的现象在当下十分严重。侵权的模式包括"云霄阁模式"和"百度模式"。它的背后既体现了社会公众、网络服务提供者和版权人之间的利益平衡,也是互联网精神、权利意识和商业模式三者博弈的结果。解决侵犯网络文学版权的问题需要注重培育公众正确的互联网意识、完善法律制度建设、创新文学网站的盈利模式及大力发挥社会组织的作用。保护网络文学著作权对创新虚拟社会管理有重要意义。