审判独立与抗诉监督制度的完善

司法公正需要审判独立和对审判权实施监督两方面的共同支撑。根据我国的政治体制和司法现状,检察权对审判权的监督必不可少,检察监督与审判独立之间既相互冲突又相互统一。在改造抗诉监督制度时,必须坚持“不损害独立审判权”的底线,把抗诉理由的标准由“确有错误”修改为“认为有错误”,把抗诉范围限定在“损害国家利益和社会公益”的案件和“适用法律错误”的案件,并对抗诉期间和抗诉次数作出严格限制以维护审判结果的终局性和权威性。     

基于项目模块导向的课程开发与建设——商业银行综合柜台业务课程开发与建设实践及探索

基于对商业银行综合柜台业务实训主导型课程的开发建设研究,按金融高职教育的规律和要求进行改革,以进一步完善课程整体框架与实训体系建设,增强教学效果。     

中国城市商业银行盈利能力影响因素分析——基于50家商业银行的微观数据

基于2009-2015年期间国内50家城市商业银行(城商行)的微观数据,采用动态面板数据模型实证检验了资产负债结构及其他宏微观因子对城商业银行盈利能力的影响。研究结论表明:负债及资产结构对城商行的盈利能力具有显著的影响,一般性存款占负债的比重、贷款占资产的比重均与其盈利水平显著正相关;城商行的资产质量及成本控制水平越高,盈利能力也越强;规模越大并不意味着盈利能力越强,那些规模较小的城商行因为聚焦于中小客户群体、具有更高的定价话语权而能够获取更高的盈利;GDP增长率、货币政策等外部宏观环境并不会显著影响城商行的盈利水平。因此,城商行不应追求单纯的规模扩张而应着力强化资产负债统筹管理,并立足自身资源禀赋及市场定位,走差异化、特色化发展道路。     

Estimates of subgroup treatment effects in overall nonsignificant trials: To what extent should we believe in them?

In drug development, it sometimes occurs that a new drug does not demonstrate effectiveness for the full study population but appears to be beneficial in a relevant subgroup. In case the subgroup of interest was not part of a confirmatory testing strategy, the inflation of the overall type I error is substantial and therefore such a subgroup analysis finding can only be seen as exploratory at best. To support such exploratory findings, an appropriate replication of the subgroup finding should be undertaken in a new trial. We should, however, be reasonably confident in the observed treatment effect size to be able to use this estimate in a replication trial in the subpopulation of interest. We were therefore interested in evaluating the bias of the estimate of the subgroup treatment effect, after selection based on significance for the subgroup in an overall “failed” trial. Different scenarios, involving continuous as well as dichotomous outcomes, were investigated via simulation studies. It is shown that the bias associated with subgroup findings in overall nonsignificant clinical trials is on average large and varies substantially across plausible scenarios. This renders the subgroup treatment estimate from the original trial of limited value to design the replication trial. An empirical Bayesian shrinkage method is suggested to minimize this overestimation. The proposed estimator appears to offer either a good or a conservative correction to the observed subgroup treatment effect hence provides a more reliable subgroup treatment effect estimate for adequate planning of future studies.     

A Bayesian sequential design with binary outcome

Several researchers have proposed solutions to control type I error rate in sequential designs. The use of Bayesian sequential design becomes more common; however, these designs are subject to inflation of the type I error rate. We propose a Bayesian sequential design for binary outcome using an alpha‐spending function to control the overall type I error rate. Algorithms are presented for calculating critical values and power for the proposed designs. We also propose a new stopping rule for futility. Sensitivity analysis is implemented for assessing the effects of varying the parameters of the prior distribution and maximum total sample size on critical values. Alpha‐spending functions are compared using power and actual sample size through simulations. Further simulations show that, when total sample size is fixed, the proposed design has greater power than the traditional Bayesian sequential design, which sets equal stopping bounds at all interim analyses. We also find that the proposed design with the new stopping for futility rule results in greater power and can stop earlier with a smaller actual sample size, compared with the traditional stopping rule for futility when all other conditions are held constant. Finally, we apply the proposed method to a real data set and compare the results with traditional designs.     

A simulation study of methods for selecting subgroup‐specific doses in phase 1 trials

Patient heterogeneity may complicate dose‐finding in phase 1 clinical trials if the dose‐toxicity curves differ between subgroups. Conducting separate trials within subgroups may lead to infeasibly small sample sizes in subgroups having low prevalence. Alternatively,it is not obvious how to conduct a single trial while accounting for heterogeneity. To address this problem,we consider a generalization of the continual reassessment method on the basis of a hierarchical Bayesian dose‐toxicity model that borrows strength between subgroups under the assumption that the subgroups are exchangeable. We evaluate a design using this model that includes subgroup‐specific dose selection and safety rules. A simulation study is presented that includes comparison of this method to 3 alternative approaches,on the basis of nonhierarchical models,that make different types of assumptions about within‐subgroup dose‐toxicity curves. The simulations show that the hierarchical model‐based method is recommended in settings where the dose‐toxicity curves are exchangeable between subgroups. We present practical guidelines for application and provide computer programs for trial simulation and conduct.     

刑事和解在审判阶段的制度构建

刑事和解系宽严相济刑事政策在诉讼中的具体体现,基于其特殊的价值,我国检察机关开始进行试点与探索,而对于具有普遍意义的刑事和解在审判阶段的应用并没有推开.自诉案件和刑附民案件程序的启动本身就决定于被害人,这类案件的和解并非普遍意义上的刑事和解.就刑事和解在审判阶段应用的价值、程序设置的主要问题进行评析,并在此基础上对程序设置的完善提出建议,以适用于审判实践.认为审判阶段进行刑事和解不仅提升了被害人的诉讼地位,同时,在一定程度上促使刑事审判的功能发生变化,与过去靠"打"来稳定社会治安的作用完全不一样,能使司法活动取得良好的社会效益,实现从有害正义到无害正义的进步,有利于社会和谐的构建.     

Unifying CRM and EWOC designs for phase I cancer clinical trials

The main goal of phase I cancer clinical trials is to determine the highest dose of a new therapy associated with an acceptable level of toxicity for the use in a subsequent phase II trial. The continual reassessment method (CRM) [O’Quigley, J., Pepe, M., Fisher, L., 1990. Continual reassessment method: a practical design for phase I clinical trials in cancer. Biometrics 46, 33–48] and escalation with overdose control (EWOC) [Babb, J., Rogatko, A., Zacks, S., 1998. Cancer phase I clinical trials: efficient dose escalation with overdose control. Statist. Med. 17 (10), 1103–1120] are two model-based designs used for phase I cancer clinical trials. A few modifications of the (original) CRM and EWOC have been made by many authors. In this paper, we show how CRM and EWOC can be unified and present a hybrid design. We study the characteristics of the approach of the hybrid design. The comparisons of the three designs (CRM, EWOC, and the hybrid design) are presented by convergence rates and overdose proportions. The simulation results show that the hybrid design generally has faster convergence rates than EWOC and smaller overdose proportions than CRM, especially when the true maximum tolerated dose (MTD) is above the mid-level of the dose range considered. The performance of these three designs is also evaluated in terms of sensitivity to outliers.     

宋代与中国古代取保候审制度的形成

取保候审古称责保知在,是刑事司法中普遍采用的限制人身自由的强制方法,是借助于保证人的信誉约束诉讼参加人,以配合司法活动的诉讼保障措施.在中国古代史籍中,取保候审于北齐初见使用,<唐律疏议>亦有条文记栽,两宋时期形成制度.与前代相比,宋代取保候审的规定更加具体,其适用条件的详备程度已达到当今立法水平,甚至有些规定今世未能企及.宋代取保候审制度的完善,可为宋代司法制度发达的又一力证.     

Doubly adaptive biased coin designs with heterogeneous responses

Doubly adaptive biased coin design (DBCD) is an important family of response-adaptive randomization procedures for clinical trials. It uses sequentially updated estimation to skew the allocation probability to favor the treatment that has performed better thus far. An important assumption for the DBCD is the homogeneity assumption for the patient responses. However, this assumption may be violated in many sequential experiments. Here we prove the robustness of the DBCD against certain time trends in patient responses. Strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the design are obtained under some widely satisfied conditions. Also, we propose a general weighted likelihood method to reduce the bias caused by the heterogeneity in the inference after a trial. Some numerical studies are also presented to illustrate the finite sample properties of DBCD.