Random errors in egocentric networks

The systematic errors that are induced by a combination of human memory limitations and common survey design and implementation have long been studied in the context of egocentric networks. Despite this, little if any work exists in the area of random error analysis on these same networks; this paper offers a perspective on the effects of random errors on egonet analysis, as well as the effects of using egonet measures as independent predictors in linear models. We explore the effects of false-positive and false-negative error in egocentric networks on both standard network measures and on linear models through simulation analysis on a ground truth egocentric network sample based on facebook-friendships. Results show that 5–20% error rates, which are consistent with error rates known to occur in ego network data, can cause serious misestimation of network properties and regression parameters.     

进一步完善来沪人员服务和管理,推进城乡统筹发展——上海解决“新二元结构”的途径、前景及举措

国家＂十二五＂规划明确提出,特大型城市要合理控制人口规模,同时要坚持因地制宜、分步推进,把有稳定劳动关系并在城镇居住一定年限的农民工及其家属逐步转为城镇居民;对暂时不具备在城镇落户的农民工,要改善公共服务,加强权益保护。上海作为外来人口规模庞大的特大型城市,必须高度重视解决＂新二元结构＂,既要积极改善来沪人员的公共服务,促进符合条件的来沪人员不断融入上海,又要合理控制人口规模,防止＂城市病＂。     

基于共同持有资产的银行间接关联网络研究

金融市场是一个复杂系统,银行之间不仅有直接的拆借关系,还能够通过投资市场建立间接关联。本文分析了资产内生相关性、资产降价出售以及银行投资行为等因素对银行间接关联程度的影响,基于这些因素通过持有共同资产构建银行系统的间接关联,并以此为基础通过平面极大过滤图方法生成银行间接关联网络,论证了该网络中的系统重要性银行,并通过对该网络结构特征的分析,发现间接关联网络具有小世界和无标度等特征,这些特征与银行通过直接拆借形成的网络相似。本文对于银行间接关联网络的研究不仅能够更加清晰地了解银行之间的关系,也为银行系统性风险的监管提供了新的视角。     

First‐Price Auctions With General Information Structures: Implications for Bidding and Revenue

We explore the impact of private information in sealed‐bid first‐price auctions. For a given symmetric and arbitrarily correlated prior distribution over values, we characterize the lowest winning‐bid distribution that can arise across all information structures and equilibria. The information and equilibrium attaining this minimum leave bidders indifferent between their equilibrium bids and all higher bids. Our results provide lower bounds for bids and revenue with asymmetric distributions over values. We also report further characterizations of revenue and bidder surplus including upper bounds on revenue. Our work has implications for the identification of value distributions from data on winning bids and for the informationally robust comparison of alternative auction mechanisms.     

当前我国民间信仰问题的现状及对策思考

民间信仰是比较普遍存在的一种特殊而又复杂的文化现象,当前民间信仰领域出现了一些新的问题,民问信仰管理工作也出现了主体不明、管理缺位、法律依据不足等问题。要解决这一问题,一要重视和加强基层政权建设和文化建设：二要对民间信仰的管理模式进行规范和创新;三要加强对民间信仰问题的研究与探索。     

高中阶段普通教育与职业教育协调发展的对策

随着我国生产力发展水平的提高,高中阶段的教育规模也在不断扩大,但只有合理的教育结构才能与劳动力市场需求相适应。为此,通过对高中阶段普通教育与职业教育的结构分析,在职业教育普通化和普通教育职业化的发展趋势下,提出新时期职业教育与普通教育在价值观念层面上要保持一致,适当发展一定比例的综合高中,构建职、普沟通的立交桥,从而促进职、酱教育的协调发展。     

Statistical analysis of error for fourth-order ordinary differential equation solvers

We develop an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to study the statistical behavior of the numerical error generated from three fourth-order ordinary differential equation solvers: Milne's method, Adams–Bashforth method and a new method that randomly switches between the Milne and Adams–Bashforth methods. With the actual error data based on three differential equations, we desire to identify an ARIMA model for each data series. Results show that some of the data series can be described by ARIMA models but others cannot. Based on the mathematical form of the numerical error, other statistical models should be investigated in the future. Finally, we assess the multivariate normality of the sample mean error generated by the switching method.     

Forecast mean squared error reductionin the VAR(1) process

When VAR models are used to predict future outcomes, the forecast error can be substantial. Through imposition of restrictions on the off-diagonal elements of the parameter matrix, however, the information in the process may be condensed to the marginal processes. In particular, if the cross-autocorrelations in the system are small and only a small sample is available, then such a restriction may reduce the forecast mean squared error considerably.

In this paper, we propose three different techniques to decide whether to use the restricted or unrestricted model, i.e. the full VAR(1) model or only marginal AR(1) models. In a Monte Carlo simulation study, all three proposed tests have been found to behave quite differently depending on the parameter setting. One of the proposed tests stands out, however, as the preferred one and is shown to outperform other estimators for a wide range of parameter settings.     

Generalized Augmentation to Control the False Discovery Exceedance in Multiple Testing

Abstract.  A new multiple testing procedure, the generalized augmentation procedure (GAUGE), is introduced. The procedure is shown to control the false discovery exceedance and to be competitive in terms of power. It is also shown how to apply the idea of GAUGE to achieve control of other error measures. Extensions to dependence are discussed, together with a modification valid under arbitrary dependence. We present an application to an original study on prostate cancer and on a benchmark data set on colon cancer.     

Estimation in capture–recapture models when covariates are subject to measurement errors and missing data

For capture–recapture models when covariates are subject to measurement errors and missing data, a set of estimating equations is constructed to estimate population size and relevant parameters. These estimating equations can be solved by an algorithm similar to the EM algorithm. The proposed method is also applicable to the situation when covariates with no measurement errors have missing data. Simulation studies are used to assess the performance of the proposed estimator. The estimator is also applied to a capture–recapture experiment on the bird species Prinia flaviventris in Hong Kong. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 645–658; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada