Communicating uncertainty in national security intelligence: Expert and nonexpert interpretations of and preferences for verbal and numeric formats

Organizations in several domains including national security intelligence communicate judgments under uncertainty using verbal probabilities (e.g., likely) instead of numeric probabilities (e.g., 75% chance), despite research indicating that the former have variable meanings across individuals. In the intelligence domain, uncertainty is also communicated using terms such as low, moderate, or high to describe the analyst's confidence level. However, little research has examined how intelligence professionals interpret these terms and whether they prefer them to numeric uncertainty quantifiers. In two experiments (N = 481 and 624, respectively), uncertainty communication preferences of expert (n = 41 intelligence analysts in Experiment 1) and nonexpert intelligence consumers were elicited. We examined which format participants judged to be more informative and simpler to process. We further tested whether participants treated verbal probability and confidence terms as independent constructs and whether participants provided coherent numeric probability translations of verbal probabilities. Results showed that although most nonexperts favored the numeric format, experts were about equally split, and most participants in both samples regarded the numeric format as more informative. Experts and nonexperts consistently conflated probability and confidence. For instance, confidence intervals inferred from verbal confidence terms had a greater effect on the location of the estimate than the width of the estimate, contrary to normative expectation. Approximately one-fourth of experts and over one-half of nonexperts provided incoherent numeric probability translations for the terms likely and unlikely when the elicitation of best estimates and lower and upper bounds were briefly spaced by intervening tasks.     

企业管理中的跨文化沟通障碍刍议

随着社会的发展,企业与企业之间交流日益频繁。如何有效地促进企业管理中的跨文化交际,加强彼此之间的沟通,已成为企业管理研究中的重要课题。本文从跨文化交际视角出发,考察了跨文化、跨文化沟通、企业管理之间的关系以及企业管理中的跨文化沟通障碍表现的层面:即认知层面、价值观层面、语言层面和非语言层面,分析了障碍存在的原因,进而提出了消除我国企业管理中的跨文化沟通障碍的建议。     

论奥尼尔戏剧中男权中心主义下的女性观

通过对奥尼尔笔下女角的广泛研究,文学评论界普遍认为他的女性观是超越陈规的。但是 运用社会学和传播学理论,重新分析这些女性形象,会发现奥尼尔作品展示和传播的是男性中心主义的 性别结构。这也是贯穿其戏剧生涯的主要创作动机之一。有趣的是,这些作品受到一代又一代女性的推 崇。因此,重新研究奥尼尔的女性观无疑可以对以往的相关研究进行一次反思,从一个崭新的角度体会 其戏剧的真正伟大之处。更重要的是,希望能够以此为契机为奥尼尔研究提供一个新思路。     

湘江战役精神数字化传播：价值、困境与路径

湘江战役精神是伟大长征精神的集中体现,包含着勇于突破、勇于胜利、勇于牺牲的丰富内涵。湘江战役精神蕴含的红色资源十分丰厚,既有传统文化的“根”,也有革命精神的“魂”。数字赋能湘江战役精神能够展示革命理想高于天的形象,为民族复兴注入新的精神动力,赋予其新的时代内涵,有利于赓续传承红色文化,加强国民理想信念教育。现阶段湘江战役精神数字化传播仍存在传播主体的认知偏差、传播内容和载体有待完善、数字化人才匮乏等问题。因此,应通过加强顶层设计和政策引导、创新数字化传播载体、加强传播人才的培育和建设,为湘江战役精神传播拓展新思路和新策略,助力湘江战役精神数字传播高质量发展。     

英语课堂教学创新与跨文化交际能力的培养

传统英语教学以传授知识为主,在一定程度上忽视了学生跨文化交际能力的培养。跨文化交际能力的培养是英语教学的内容和目的,改革传统的英语教学,创新英语教学课堂,应该着力于跨文化的认知和交际能力的培养。     

What is the Point of Change? Change Point Detection in Relational Event Models

This paper presents an extension to the relational event model with change points (REM-CP) to study abrupt changes to social interaction behavior in temporal networks. A change point detection algorithm is proposed for exploring when and which network effects abruptly change, and a confirmatory approach to test the presence of a change point at a given moment. The effectiveness of the methodology was assessed with numerical simulations and NASA’s Apollo 13 mission data. The latter revealed dynamic communication behavior and identified time zones where most change points occurred, including around the time of the famous quote “Houston, we’ve had a problem.”     

Introducing the Co-oriented Scansis (CoS) model: A case of chatbot,Lee-Luda

This study presents the Co-oriented Scansis (CoS) model, which provides a comprehensive understanding of scansis—a recently identified crisis type integrated into the Situational Crisis Communication Theory (SCCT). Using a crisis case of Scatter Lab, a South Korean AI company, as a model case, the study applies the CoS model to analyze the perceptions and meta-perceptions of both the organization and the public regarding the crisis. The data collection involved three official statements released by Scatter Lab and an analysis of 365 reviews from the Google Play users' reviews page of Science of Love—the app used by Scatter Lab to collect intimate conversations between romantic partners. The findings highlight the utility of the CoS model in explaining how Scatter Lab's AI crisis evolved into a scansis. Specifically, the organization's failure to accurately comprehend the public's perception of the crisis (second level co-orientation) and the resulting discrepancy between the organization and the public's perceptions (third level co-orientation) contributed to moral outrage, ultimately leading to a scansis. The study concludes by discussing the theoretical contributions of the CoS model and its practical implications for crisis management.     

Beyond reputational and financial damage: Examining emotional and religious harm in a post-crisis case study of Hillsong Church

Religious organizations have largely been overlooked in public relations scholarship, particularly in the crisis communication literature. Additionally, research in crisis communication primarily focuses on the reputational, material, and financial damage caused by crises. This study addresses theoretical and topical gaps in public relations scholarship by advancing Spaulding’s (2018) emotional and religious harm categories for moral crises within religious organizations. Results of a qualitative case study of Hillsong Church’s Carl Lentz crisis suggest an emotional harm continuum exists for moral crises, and religious harm emerges as distancing as a religious protective measure. Findings advance crisis communication theory regarding the use of religious and renewal rhetoric and types of harm inflicted from crises, and assists practitioners in crafting post-crisis messages that prioritize stakeholder healing and the organization’s recovery.     

Restoring trust through transparency: Examining the effects of transparency strategies on police crisis communication in Mainland China

Employing a 2 (accepting crisis accountability vs denying crisis accountability) x 2 (high vs low information substantiality) x 2 (high vs low participation) online experiment (N = 293), this study examines how different transparency strategies influence public anger and trust in a Chinese police crisis context, offering insights on government social media crisis communication. In general, transparency is crucial for Chinese local governments, especially police agencies, in managing crises on social media. Reporting organizational crisis accountability, delivering sufficient and evidence-based messages, and enabling public discussion on social media are three transparency strategies that can help minimize public anger and rebuild public trust. Results suggest the positive effects of delivering messages in crisis situations by using transparency. Furthermore, the study points out that police organizations in China should consider the possibility of information overload and unexpectedly low overall expectations for government transparency among Chinese publics.