旅游发展对女性角色变迁的影响研究--以大理周城白族女性为例

女性参与旅游发展是目的地获得可持续发展的重要前提。缺乏旅游发展对女性角色变迁影响的分析，仅将女性参与作为一个必然的过程而不是文化、经济和政治的过程，是女性参与旅游发展在实践中不能获得真正进步的原因。通过对国内外旅游研究中旅游发展对女性角色变迁的影响研究成果进行介绍，以云南大理周城为例，通过田野调查结果的抽样分析，剖析了周城近21年的旅游发展对周城白族妇女角色变迁影响的主要表现、女性角色变迁对大理周城旅游发展的积极意义和消极影响，提出在金融信贷和旅游发展项目中应充分考虑女性的需要，重视社会性别意识，积极改善女性参政议政环境，加强少数民族女性人力资本投资，以互联网为途径整合线上线下营销渠道，提高女性的文化营销能力。     

A novel approach for evaluating programs designed to serve military veterans: Using an adapted common components analysis

Evaluators are challenged to keep pace with the vast array of Veteran support programs operating in the United States, resulting in a situation in which many programs lack any evidence of impact. Due to this lack of evidence, there is no efficient way to suggest which programs are most effective in helping Veterans in need of support. One potential solution to this dilemma is to reconceptualize program evaluation, by moving away from evaluating programs individually to evaluating what is common across programs. The Common Components Analysis (CCA) is one such technique that aggregates findings from programs that have undergone rigorous evaluation at the level of program components (e.g., content, process, barrier reduction). Given that many Veteran programs lack outcome evidence from rigorous studies, an adaptation to CCA is needed. This report examines cross-sectional data from a pilot study using an adapted CCA across five domains of well-being (i.e., employment, education, legal/financial/housing, mental/physical health, and social/personal relationships). The purpose of this preliminary study is to determine the feasibility of eliciting program nominations and program components from Veterans via an online survey. When coupled with a longitudinal research design, this adaptation to CCA will allow for stronger causal claims about the expected impact of different program components within and across a variety of domains.     

What are the Risk Factors for Antisocial Behavior Among Low‐income Youth in CapeTown?

Research in high‐income countries has identified an array of risk factors for youth antisocial behavior. However, in low‐ and middle‐income countries, despite higher prevalence of offending and antisocial behavior, there is a paucity of prospective, longitudinal evidence examining predictors. South Africa is a middle‐income country with high rates of violence and crime, and a unique social context, characterized by striking income and gender inequality, and increasing number of children orphaned by AIDS. We tested predictors of antisocial behavior at community, family, and individual levels over four years. One thousand and twenty five adolescents from poor, urban South African settlements were assessed in 2005 (50 percent female; M = 13.4 years) and followed up in 2009. The sample analyzed consisted of the 723 youth (71 percent) assessed at both time points. We employed sociodemographic questionnaires and standardized scales. Validity of our antisocial behavior measure was supported by cross‐sectional associations with well‐evidenced concomitants of youth antisocial behavior, including drug taking and truancy. Regression analysis indicated that male gender and experience of community violence, but not poverty or abuse, predicted antisocial behavior. Despite many South African youth experiencing abuse and poverty at the family level, our findings suggest that high levels of violence in communities may be a more important factor contributing to the development of antisocial behavior, particularly among males.     

四川省甘孜州、阿坝州城镇女性从业者的就业结构与驱动因素探究——基于全国第四次经济普查四川省数据的分析

就业是民生之基,是社会稳定之本,也是女性劳动者的基本权利、提高女性自身经济地位的重要手段,更是性别平等的测试器。在四川省甘孜州、阿坝州,城镇女性从业者在教育、卫生等行业有较高从业优势,就业集中分布于公共管理、教育、卫生、文化等领域,在零售、餐饮、住宿等市场化行业的集中度不明显;产业结构、城镇化与乡城劳动力转移、民营经济发展水平、城镇女性人力资本以及择业观念等影响城镇女性的行业就业行为;传统服务业与线上业态、旅游相关产业、生态红利产业、农业产业链延伸产业等是未来城镇女性劳动力的就业拓展领域;提升女性人力资本有助于女性从业者的就业结构优化。     

Iwi community justice panels reduce harm from re-offending

ABSTRACT

The effect of iwi community justice panels is assessed using data from seven years of implementation. Panel participants of 1013 are compared to a control group drawn from 73,000 offenders charged with similar offences and propensity-matched by age, gender, ethnicity, offending history and location. The dependent measure is re-harm from offending calculated using the NZ Crime Harm Index. Panel participants did not reduce their rate of offending compared to matched controls. However, there is a significant reduction in harm from post-panel offending, on average by 26.9 ± 21.05 equivalised prison days. The relative reduction is 22.25% of the harm committed by matched controls. Iwi panels are an effective alternative justice resolution. Panel participants are found to re-offend with minor offences and thus any focus on rates of offending would miss the complexity of the restorative justice process that reduces the harm of re-offending.     

Analysing critical success factors to implement sustainable supply chain practices in Indian automobile industry: a case study

The aim of this article is to analyse the critical success factors (CSFs) behind the successful implementation of sustainable supply chain practices in Indian automobile industry. Supply chain sustainability is a critical and timely topic for the developing country like India that captures increasing concerns over sustainability, whether driven by current legislation, public interest or competitive opportunity. Identification of CSFs responsible for sustainable supply chain practices and evaluating their contextual relationships has the potential to affect future government policy, current production operations and identify new business models. In response to this, this paper intends to identify CSFs based on organisational theory and model them to implement sustainable supply chain practices in Indian automobile industry. Twenty-five CSFs to implement sustainable supply chain practices based on organisational theory are recognised by means of the literature review and in discussions with experts in one case study organisation. A solution methodology based on the interpretive structural modelling (ISM) technique is used to propose a structural model, which not only helps in understanding the contextual relationship among these CSFs, but also in determining their interdependence to implement sustainable supply chain practices. Further, the importance of CSFs has been determined based on their driving and dependence power using MICMAC analysis. Our overarching thesis is that the insights gained are useful for Indian automobile industry and would help practitioners, regulators and academicians to focus their efforts towards implementation of sustainable supply chain practices.     

The Evolution of Housing Typologies for Older Adults in The Netherlands From 1945 to 2016: An Analysis in the Context of Policy,Societal, and Technological Developments

This study aims to examine housing typologies for older adults in the light of three qualitatively examined exogenous factors: policy, societal developments, and technology. The developments in inpatient and assisted ambulatory housing facilities for older adults have been mapped from 1945 to 2016 using quantitative data. Using these data, five transition periods can be distinguished. Within the first transition periods, policy factors were tremendously important, while within the later ones, societal influence empowered by technological change became the primarily driving factor. This research shows that the classification of inpatient, assisted ambulatory housing, and outpatient housing may no longer be applicable in its current form.     

Human Agency in Disaster Planning: A Systems Approach

Current approaches to risk management place insufficient emphasis on the system knowledge available to the assessor, particularly in respect of the dynamic behavior of the system under threat, the role of human agents (HAs), and the knowledge available to those agents. In this article, we address the second of these issues. We are concerned with a class of systems containing HAs playing a variety of roles as significant system elements—as decisionmakers, cognitive agents, or implementers—that is, human activity systems. Within this family of HAS, we focus on safety and mission‐critical systems, referring to this subclass as critical human activity systems (CHASs). Identification of the role and contribution of these human elements to a system is a nontrivial problem whether in an engineering context, or, as is the case here, in a wider social and public context. Frequently, they are treated as standing apart from the system in design or policy terms. Regardless of the process of policy definition followed, analysis of the risk and threats to such a CHAS requires a holistic approach, since the effect of undesirable, uninformed, or erroneous actions on the part of the human elements is both potentially significant to the system output and inextricably bound together with the nonhuman elements of the system. We present a procedure for identifying the potential threats and risks emerging from the roles and activity of those HAs, using the 2014 flooding in southwestern England and the Thames Valley as a contemporary example.     

R package rjmcmc: reversible jump MCMC using post‐processing

The rjmcmc package for R implements the post‐processing reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm of Barker & Link. MCMC output from each of the models is used to estimate posterior model probabilities and Bayes factors. Automatic differentiation is used to simplify implementation. The package is demonstrated on two examples.     

Risk factors for severe perineal trauma during vaginal childbirth: A Western Australian retrospective cohort study

AimTo determine rates and risk factors for third and fourth degree perineal tears (severe perineal trauma) in a Western Australian context.Design and settingA retrospective hospital-based cohort study was performed using computerised data for 10,408 singleton vaginal deliveries from 28 weeks gestation.MethodsWomen with severe perineal trauma were compared to those without. Logistic regression analysis, stratified by parity, was used to assess demographic and obstetric factors associated with perineal trauma.ResultsSevere perineal trauma incidence was 3% (338/10408), 5.4% (239/4405) for primiparas and 1.7% (99/5990) for multiparas (p < 0.001). Adjusted risk factors associated with trauma and common across parity included Asian or Indian ethnicity, shoulder dystocia and assisted delivery. Epidural analgesia (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.54–0.96), preterm birth (OR 0.40, 95% CI 0.23–0.72) and episiotomy (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.39–0.74) were protective in primiparas, while episiotomy was associated with increased risk in multiparas (OR 2.01, 95% CI 1.18–3.45). Additional factors among primiparas were occipito posterior (OP) delivery (OR 3.35, 95% CI 1.75–6.41) and prolonged second stage (OR 1.98, 95% CI 1.46–2.68), and among multiparas included gestational diabetes (OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.04–3.03) and birth weight >4000 g (OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.10–3.15).ConclusionParity differences in risk factors such as episiotomy, infant weight, OP delivery, gestational diabetes and prolonged second stage warrant investigation into clinical management. Although rates differ internationally, and replication evidence has confirmed consistency for certain demographic and obstetric factors, the development of internationally endorsed clinical guidelines and further research around interventions to protect the perineum are recommended.