理路与实践：马克思主义大众化传播的高校担当

传播马克思主义是高校光荣历史传统和重要时代使命。高校具有马克思主义社区传播的独特时空、主体及资源优势,基层社区是高校传播和践行马克思主义,师生深入“社会大课堂”和“将论文写在祖国大地”的重要场域。本案例HN大学青年理论社团精准对接基层社区开展马克思主义传播实践的创新经验是校地同构的街道“一体两翼多元四联”传播共同体,共辟全域协同传播阵地,共享立体多维传播资源。案例的启示是要提升高校对基层社区的马克思主义传播力和影响力,树立传播责任意识是前提,建设传播服务团队是根本,完善传播激励机制是关键,提供精准长效传播服务是方向。     

农村公共服务供给中的公共性生产逻辑

农村公共服务供给的多主体协同是在共同体框架内进行的,农村公共服务供给共同体形成的关键在于其公共性。结构-文化-行动者的三维分析框架为农村公共服务供给共同体公共性的生产逻辑提供了解释。基于湖南湘西J村人居环境改善的案例研究发现,公权力对私权利的引导、规范纠偏与压制,科层体系下的权力控制以及集体主义优先于个人主义的道德结构是农村公共服务供给共同体公共性生产的压力来源;农村熟人社会对人情关系、公共空间对话和乡村精英的培育为该共同体公共性的生产提供了弹性空间;而个体行动者公共利益优先于个人利益的利益选择、参与型的意义建构和服务型的价值认同则促使其自主生产公共性。     

乡村社区营造何以成功?——来自关中袁家村的案例研究

长期以来,国家自上而下的社区规划变迁,为农村社区建设提供了物质基础、组织载体和制度保障,但农民的主体性和社区的自主性依然没有被充分激发起来。文献研究发现,对社区内涵和定位认识的不同理解会产生农村社区建设是基于共同体意识的凝聚、还是国家行政权力向基层社会延伸两种演进脉络。以关中袁家村为例,从为何营造、营造什么、怎样营造三个层面切入,尝试回答以下几个问题:改善民生和提高农民生活质量,“产、文、人、地、景”的乡村社区营造,国家规划变迁和社区自主实践相结合。指出乡村社区营造何以成功的启示是“三位一体”现代社区内涵的正确理解及其功能的准确定位,其引发的本土实践体现了国家主导和社会参与的互构效应。     

Implementing partial least squares

Partial least squares (PLS) regression has been proposed as an alternative regression technique to more traditional approaches such as principal components regression and ridge regression. A number of algorithms have appeared in the literature which have been shown to be equivalent. Someone wishing to implement PLS regression in a programming language or within a statistical package must choose which algorithm to use. We investigate the implementation of univariate PLS algorithms within FORTRAN and the Matlab (1993) and Splus (1992) environments, comparing theoretical measures of execution speed based on flop counts with their observed execution times. We also comment on the ease with which the algorithms may be implemented in the different environments. Finally, we investigate the merits of using the orthogonal invariance of PLS regression to improve the algorithms.     

小麦新品种“绵阳26”主要性状与产量的关系

对45个试验点的资料分析,多抗、丰产、优质、广适小麦新品种绵阳26的主要性状有效穗x1、穗粒数x2和千粒x3、单穗重x4与产量y的回归方程为：y＝－614．8425＋9.8683x1＋7.3223x2＋10．5315x3＋22．5748x4。经偏回归和偏相关分析,产量构成因素中,千粒重、有效穗对绵阳26产量的贡献和影响最大（b'3＝1．7435,b'1＝1．5372,R3y.＝0．7983,R1y＝0．6991）。在现有产量的基础上稳定千粒重,主攻穗数和穗粒数,是发挥绵阳26高产潜力的决定因素。     

Spatial variation in risk of disease: a nonparametric binary regression approach

A common problem in environmental epidemiology is the estimation and mapping of spatial variation in disease risk. In this paper we analyse data from the Walsall District Health Authority, UK, concerning the spatial distributions of cancer cases compared with controls sampled from the population register. We formulate the risk estimation problem as a nonparametric binary regression problem and consider two different methods of estimation. The first uses a standard kernel method with a cross-validation criterion for choosing the associated bandwidth parameter. The second uses the framework of the generalized additive model (GAM) which has the advantage that it can allow for additional explanatory variables, but is computationally more demanding. For the Walsall data, we obtain similar results using either the kernel method with controls stratified by age and sex to match the age–sex distribution of the cases or the GAM method with random controls but incorporating age and sex as additional explanatory variables. For cancers of the lung or stomach, the analysis shows highly statistically significant spatial variation in risk. For the less common cancers of the pancreas, the spatial variation in risk is not statistically significant.     

Application of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to modelling birth prevalence of Down syndrome

Data collected before the routine application of prenatal screening are of unique value in estimating the natural live-birth prevalence of Down syndrome. However, much of these data are from births from over 20 years ago and they are of uncertain quality. In particular, they are subject to varying degrees of underascertainment. Published approaches have used ad hoc corrections to deal with this problem or have been restricted to data sets in which ascertainment is assumed to be complete. In this paper we adopt a Bayesian approach to modelling ascertainment and live-birth prevalence. We consider three prior specifications concerning ascertainment and compare predicted maternal-age-specific prevalence under these three different prior specifications. The computations are carried out by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in which model parameters and missing data are sampled.     

上海股票市场股票收益率因素研究

根据上海股票市场从1995 年7 月到2000 年6 月所有A 股股票的月收益率、价格、市值和 公司财务数据,利用Fama-Macbeth 回归分析方法及构造动态组合方法,分析总市值、流通市值、 价格、账面市值比、市盈率、账面资产负债比等因素对股票回报率的影响. 发现上海股票市场具 有显著的市值效应、账面市值比效应、市盈率效应和价格效应. 这些效应不能用股票的beta 值 来解释. 同时发现Fama- French 的三因子模型不能完全解释这些效应,但在三因子模型的基础 上再加上一个市盈率因子可以很好地解     

基于GRPLS 回归的 中国经济增长影响因素分析

构造一种新的方法———岭- 偏最小二乘回归方法(它既有效消除了因素变量之间的多 重共线性,又克服了传统方法的不足,且使模型更加稳健,具有更强的预测和分析能力) ;并运 用广义岭- 偏最小二乘回归方法分析了我国经济增长的影响因素,为我国制订持续、快速增长 的经济政策提供了有益的参考.     

动力减振器最优参数的非线性回归和若干问题

本文采用最优化方法求得考虑生系统阻尼的动力减振器最优参数集，并对此参数集进行非线性回归，得到了便于动力减振器最优设计的回归曲线族。本文还对现有的主系统无阻尼时动力减振器最优参数公式进行了讨论，指出了这些公式的局限性，并根据本文的结果给出了应用范围更广泛的改进公式。