The analysis of incomplete data using stochastic covariates

In the development of many diseases there are often associated random variables which continuously reflect the progress of a subject towards the final expression of the disease (failure). At any given time these processes, which we call stochastic covariates, may provide information about the current hazard and the remaining time to failure. Likewise, in situations when the specific times of key prior events are not known, such as the time of onset of an occult tumour or the time of infection with HIV-1, it may be possible to identify a stochastic covariate which reveals, indirectly, when the event of interest occurred. The analysis of carcinogenicity trials which involve occult tumours is usually based on the time of death or sacrifice and an indicator of tumour presence for each animal in the experiment. However, the size of an occult tumour observed at the endpoint represents data concerning tumour development which may convey additional information concerning both the tumour incidence rate and the rate of death to which tumour-bearing animals are subject. We develop a stochastic model for tumour growth and suggest different ways in which the effect of this growth on the hazard of failure might be modelled. Using a combined model for tumour growth and additive competing risks of death, we show that if this tumour size information is used, assumptions concerning tumour lethality, the context of observation or multiple sacrifice times are no longer necessary in order to estimate the tumour incidence rate. Parametric estimation based on the method of maximum likelihood is outlined and is applied to simulated data from the combined model. The results of this limited study confirm that use of the stochastic covariate tumour size results in more precise estimation of the incidence rate for occult tumours.     

顾客价值创新:战略分析的基点

传统的战略分析是以竞争为基点的。其目的是如何比竞争对手做得更好。在这种思维指导下 ,企业经营往往产生竞争激烈、市场不敏感、反应性行为、缺乏创新等后果。在复杂多变的环境中 ,战略分析应转移到顾客价值创新上来。顾客价值创新战略通过为顾客提供完全新型或得到重大改进的价值而使企业经营与竞争无关。顾客价值创新战略与竞争基点战略在战略导向、对竞争的认知及态度、企业本身实力的认识等具有明显不同的特征 ;进行顾客价值创新可以按照顾客价值创新循环机制进行 ,这一循环机制以顾客消费流程分析为起点 ,由创新机会认别、资源需求分析及价值创新实施等环节构成。     

关于教育对经济增长抑制效应的思考

教育对经济增长的抑制效应是教育对经济增长双重效应的一个重要方面。本文从确认教育对经济增长的抑制效应的存在出发,分析了教育对经济增长抑制效应的具体情形,探讨了教育对经济增长抑制效应的存在机制。     

舆论监督:党风廉政建设和反腐败斗争的重要支点

完善民主监督制度,需要发挥舆论监督的作用。舆论是一定的社会集团对社会上某些重要问题重大事件所公开表露的带有倾向性的意见和言论,有自在型与自为型两种形态。舆论监督的主要形式有:新闻监督、群众监督、党内监督;舆论监督有及时、公开、广泛、特效、权威的特点;舆论监督的注意事项:服从、服务大局;舆论监督的作用:廉政建设的重要支点。     

国际货物买卖合同法律适用问题分析

国际货物买卖合同双方当事人可以协议选择有关国际公约、国际惯例以及某一国或某几国的国内法为合同的准据法。若当事人选择的准据法不是一个完整的合同法律体系,应允许当事人再次选择,这样才能更好地体现意思自治原则。在一般情况下,若当事人选择了《联合国国际货物买卖合同公约》为合同的准据法,合同的准据法就有可能不是单一的,同时还可能会有国际惯例或国内法为合同的准据法。国际货物买卖合同法律适用问题的复杂性应引起我们的注意。     

试论完善我国散居少数民族立法

少数民族权益的法律保障始终是我国法治进程中的一件大事,而散居少数民族立法工作又是我国整个民族法治建设的重要组成部分。本文主要通过分析完善我国散居少数民族立法的意义,指出我国散居少数民族立法的基本情况以及存在的问题,探求完善散居少数民族立法的方法。     

论缔约过失责任的赔偿范围

赔偿范围问题在缔约过失责任理论中一直颇有争议。本文基于缔约过失责任概念的基本界定,认为缔约过失责任损害赔偿的基本范围为信赖利益的损失。相应地,为契合缔约过失责任理论的创立初衷和平衡当事人的利益,信赖利益的赔偿范围应包括了间接利益、非财产上损失以及第三人等损失,但应以履行利益为限。     

论在公共服务中引入竞争机制

我国政府在提供公共服务时存在很多不尽人意的地方,要改变这种状况就必须在公共服务中引入竞争机制。在公共服务中引入竞争机制有打破垄断、政府管制等方法,竞争有公共部门与私人部门竞争和公共部门之间竞争两种类型。而要引入竞争机制,并使其真正发挥作用还必须有相应的配套措施。     

西部金融发展的路径选择探析

通过我国东、西部金融发展水平的比较，发现西部金融正处于一种迟缓发展状态，因而未能真正发挥出对区域经济的促进作用。经过分析，认为西部应选择供给引导型金融发展道路，主动通过金融先行发展来加速经济增长。     

A Two-dimensional Heat Transfer Model for Atmosphere-land System in the Lake-dominated Alaskan Arctic

1 Introduction Shallow tundra lakes are one of the dominating landscape features in the Alaskan Arctic. They typically cover 20% of the total area of the North Slope of Alaska, and up to about 40% in the coastal plain [1,2]. Many lakes are, in their entirety or in part, shallower than the maximum annual ice thickness, consequently, some ice freezes completely to the lake bottom, nevertheless, large areas of water are deeper than the maximum ice thickness and the ice remains afloat througho…