江西农产品国际竞争力的实证分析

基于中国农产品市场开放和鄱阳湖生态经济区建设上升为国家发展战略的宏观背景下,以产业比较优势理论和竞争优势理论为依据,通过利用RCA和RRCA两大指数定量测算了江西主要农产品国际竞争力状况,得出江西在传统优势农产品畜产品、茶叶、水产品、烤鳗、大米等具有很强的比较优势,但市场竞争优势不明显;水产品、水果、蔬菜等产品不具比较优势,但近年来市场竞争力不断提升的基本结论。最后提出了发挥江西农业资源与环境比较优势,提升江西农产品国际竞争力的政策建议。     

中国胶合板国际竞争力的比较分析

中国人造板产品中胶合板起步最早,发展速度也最快,是人造板中的主导产品。在分析中国胶合板的生产与贸易现状的基础上,运用贸易专业化系数、显示性比较优势指数、显示性竞争优势指数及国际市场占有率等竞争力测算方法分析中国胶合板的国际竞争力。研究结论认为虽然中国胶合板出口量世界第一,但并不是胶合板强国,然而中国胶合板市场潜力巨大,胶合板产业有较大的发展空间。最后提出中国胶合板企业应加强技术创新、解决资源约束问题等建议。     

湖南省农产品加工业竞争力的实证研究——基于省际比较视角

农产品加工业是农业的前向关联产业,对农业发展发挥着引导和反哺的重要作用,对增加农民收入、发展农业现代化与产业化有很大意义。以层次分析法为分析工具,建立了区域农产品加工业竞争力的评价指标体系,并将河南、湖北、湖南、安徽、江西中部五省的相关数据代入该评价体系进行比较分析,得到了量化的评价结果。结果表明:湖南农产品加工业竞争力在中部五省中处于中等水平。     

当前称谓语的演变及其社会意义

本文通过对若干称谓语的演变的考察,认为称谓语的演变反映了社会生活的变迁,并具有一定导向力量,大多从经济文化发达地区向落后地区扩散。     

Comparison of Interval Estimators of Pr(X < Y) in the Two-parameter Exponential Distribution

We consider confidence intervals for the stress–strength reliability Pr(X< Y) in the two-parameter exponential distribution. We have derived the Bayesian highest posterior density interval using non-informative prior distributions. We have compared its performance with the intervals based on the generalized pivot variable intervals in terms of their coverage probabilities and expected lengths. Our simulation study shows that the Bayesian interval performs better according to the criteria used, especially when the sample sizes are very small. An example is given.     

企业市场占优投资竞争策略研究

应用博弈论Cournot和Stackelberg竞争模型,并引入投资期权的分析工具研究两个竞争企业的市场占优投资决策的纯策略和混合策略.用数学模拟方法分析不同市场条件下具有或不具有垄断投资机会的企业市场占优投资决策策略,以及市场波动对不同性质企业进行市场占优投资决策的影响.结果表明,当面临激烈的市场竞争时,企业往往希望通过市场占优的投资进一步培育或发展自身的核心能力,以期望在未来的竞争中获取优势,占有更大的市场份额.但是,由于市场的不确定性,进行市场占优投资的决策可能给企业带来收益,也可能带来损失,如何进行市场占优投资的决策是企业应该切实关注的问题.     

Strength matters: Tie strength as a causal driver of networks’ information benefits

Studies of social networks have often taken the existence of a social tie as a proxy for the transmission of information. However, other studies of social networks in the labor market propose that the likelihood of information transmission might depend on strength of the tie; and that tie strength is a potentially important source of the tie's value. After all, even if job seekers have social ties to those who have valuable job information, the seekers will gain little information benefit when the ties do not actually transmit the information. This paper clarifies the conditions under which social ties might provide information benefits. We use a survey vignette experiment and ask MBA students about their likelihood of relaying job information via strong ties (to friends) or weak ties (to acquaintances), holding constant the structural locations spanned by the tie and job seekers' fit with the job. The results support the claim that strength of tie has a causal effect on the chances of information transmission: potential referrers are more likely to relay job information to their friends than to acquaintances. The larger implication of these findings is that whatever benefits there might be to using weak ties to reach distant non-redundant information during job search, these benefits need to be considered against the likely fact that people connected via weak ties are less likely to actually share information about job opportunities than are people to whom the job seeker is strongly tied.     

Estimation of P{X < Y} for geometric—exponential model based on complete and censored samples

This article deals with the estimation of R = P{X < Y}, where X and Y are independent random variables from geometric and exponential distribution, respectively. For complete samples, the MLE of R, its asymptotic distribution, and confidence interval based on it are obtained. The procedure for deriving bootstrap-p confidence interval is presented. The UMVUE of R and UMVUE of its variance are derived. The Bayes estimator of R is investigated and its Lindley's approximation is obtained. A simulation study is performed in order to compare these estimators. Finally, all point estimators for right censored sample from the exponential distribution, are obtained.     

A probabilistic clustering method for data elements with normal distributed attributes

By considering uncertainty in the attributes common methods cannot be applicable in data clustering. In the recent years, many researches have been done by considering fuzzy concepts to interpolate the uncertainty. But when data elements attributes have probabilistic distributions, the uncertainty cannot be interpreted by fuzzy theory. In this article, a new concept for clustering of elements with predefined probabilistic distributions for their attributes has been proposed, so each observation will be as a member of a cluster with special probability. Two metaheuristic algorithms have been applied to deal with the problem. Squared Euclidean distance type has been considered to calculate the similarity of data elements to cluster centers. The sensitivity analysis shows that the proposed approach will converge to the classic approaches results when the variance of each point tends to be zero. Moreover, numerical analysis confirms that the proposed approach is efficient in clustering of probabilistic data.     

Attitude strength moderates adverse effects to questionnaire design

ABSTRACT

The presentation and visual design of the “don’t know” category in rating scales on respondents’ behavior may have ambivalent effects. The hypothesis is that attitude strength toward the topic influences the respondents’ sensitivity to the graphical design of the scale. A paper-and-pencil questionnaire conducted among 307 German university students contained an experimental variation of the presentation of a “don’t know” category and its visual design. A multinomial logistic regression shows that presenting a “don’t know” category drives respondents toward extreme categories. The visual design of the “don’t know” category influences the distribution of responses, all the more that the respondents’ attitudes toward the item topic are weak.