Difference-based variance estimator for nonparametric regression in complex surveys

A difference-based variance estimator is proposed for nonparametric regression in complex surveys. By using a combined inference framework, the estimator is shown to be asymptotically normal and to converge to the true variance at a parametric rate. Simulation studies show that the proposed variance estimator works well for complex survey data and also reveals some finite sample properties of the estimator.     

Simulation for the complex Bingham distribution

The complex Bingham distribution is relevant for the shape analysis of landmark data in two dimensions. In this paper it is shown that the problem of simulating from this distribution reduces to simulation from a truncated multivariate exponential distribution. Several simulation methods are described and their efficiencies are compared.     

技术创新对高新技术产品贸易竞争力的影响

以新贸易理论为基础,探讨技术创新对中国高新技术产业产品贸易竞争力的影响,并进行实证分析,目的是通过分析中国高新技术产品贸易竞争力和技术创新状况,研究技术创新与高新技术产品贸易竞争力的互动关系,并对提升高新技术产品出口竞争力作进一步探讨。结果表明：中国高新技术产品R＆D投入产出率与贸易竞争力间存在长期均衡关系,而人力资本投入强度、新产品开发强度与贸易竞争力关联度不大。     

1992-2009年中国茶叶出口国际竞争力分析——基于品种及包装细分的纵向研究

茶叶是中国出口的重要农产品之一,而有关研究表明近年来中国出口茶叶的国际竞争力在不断下降。基于对茶叶品种的细分,运用出口单价、国际市场占有率、RCA指数测算了1992—2009年中国不同品种、不同包装茶叶的国际竞争力,并通过与其他茶叶出口大国进行对比,找出中国茶叶的主要优势。分析结果表明：大包装绿茶是中国最具竞争优势的茶类,但这种优势在下降。大包装红茶竞争力最弱;1992—2009年间,影响中国茶叶出口竞争力变化的国际环境因素主要有加入WTO以及2007年的次贷危机,其中加入WTO的影响比较持久,次贷危机的影响较为短暂。     

Creating a reference to a complex emergency situation using time series methods: war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999

Impacts of complex emergencies or relief interventions have often been evaluated by absolute mortality compared to international standardized mortality rates. A better evaluation would be to compare with local baseline mortality of the affected populations. A projection of population-based survival data into time of emergency or intervention based on information from before the emergency may create a local baseline reference. We find a log-transformed Gaussian time series model where standard errors of the estimated rates are included in the variance to have the best forecasting capacity. However, if time-at-risk during the forecasted period is known then forecasting might be done using a Poisson time series model with overdispersion. Whatever, the standard error of the estimated rates must be included in the variance of the model either in an additive form in a Gaussian model or in a multiplicative form by overdispersion in a Poisson model. Data on which the forecasting is based must be modelled carefully concerning not only calendar-time trends but also periods with excessive frequency of events (epidemics) and seasonal variations to eliminate residual autocorrelation and to make a proper reference for comparison, reflecting changes over time during the emergency. Hence, when modelled properly it is possible to predict a reference to an emergency-affected population based on local conditions. We predicted childhood mortality during the war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999. We found an increased mortality in the first half-year of the war and a mortality corresponding to the expected one in the last half-year of the war.     

零售企业自有品牌竞争力评价研究

在总结品牌竞争力评价和自有品牌竞争要素已有研究的基础上,从品牌竞争力的企业能力视角和外部表征视角构建了零售企业自有品牌竞争力的评价指标体系。该体系由自有品牌支撑能力、自有品牌管理能力、自有品牌市场能力三个一级指标和九个二级指标、21个三级指标构成,采用层次分析法确定了指标体系的权重分配。应用模糊综合测度模型,以两家在中国的跨国零售企业为例,对其自有品牌竞争力进行了评估和比较分析。     

从生态系统管理到复合生态系统管理的演进

从自然生态系统到复合生态系统是生态系统发展和演变的历史必然,复合生态系统管理理论起源于生态系统管理理论和实践的发展,在梳理复合生态系统管理理论与实践发展历程的基础上,对复合生态系统管理理论国内外研究成果及实践进行述评,针对当前研究中的不足,提出复合生态系统管理理论研究的主要趋势和方向,为进一步研究奠定基础。     

卡森·麦卡勒斯小说中母亲形象缺席的创作心理分析

卡森·麦卡勒斯是美国著名的南方作家,在奠定其文学史地位的五部小说中,通过对母亲形象的缺席不在场书写,实现了现实生活中作家对作为"父亲"代表的母亲的无意识"阉割"欲望。作家在文本升华中,呈现出典型的"俄狄浦斯情结"特征。     

移动互联网时代基于OaaS的电信运营企业竞争力提升途径

面向用户的新型移动互联网时代要求电信企业具备新的竞争力内涵和扩展。首先基于此现状,从电信运营企业竞争力提升的视角出发,归纳移动互联网时代电信企业竞争力的构成要素,提出融合发展是移动互联网时代电信运营核心竞争力的观点;然后运用运营即服务（OaaS）的思想,构建新的移动互联网价值链模式;最后提出了新形势下电信运营企业竞争力的提升途径。     

中国直销企业九问

随着我国对于环境污染、食品安全、就业形势等问题的日趋关切,人们对于健康重要性的认识也在不断加深,从而决定了以保健品为主体产品的直销企业存在与发展有其客观必然性。但并不是说,存在就一定是合理的,国家在严厉打击非法传销的同时,合法直销企业违规现象也不断曝光。在直销行业快速发展的今天,如何破其不利因素,立其有利因素,则成为政府、企业以及学术界普遍关注的要点之一。基于此种思考,笔者提出一些不成熟的话题,以求教于直销行业的各位同仁。