浅析高校图书馆员的自卑心理及对策

图书馆员的心理健康影响着图书馆为读者提供服务的质量,关系到读者需求的满意程度,自卑是图书馆员不健康心理的一种具体情绪体现。本文就图书馆员自卑情绪的外在表现形式,产生的原因,和消除自卑情绪的策略,做了简单的论述。     

弗洛伊德民族心理学思想述论

心理学大师弗洛伊德也是西方民族心理学的奠基者之一,他的俄底普斯情结、图腾与禁忌和民族群体领袖等理论,打开了民族学和心理学交叉研究的大门,对宗教思想和民族心理密切关系的阐释,补充了民族心理学的研究内容。     

基于TRIZ的复杂系统FMECA分析\n流程和方法研究

大型复杂系统具有结构复杂和功能多样化的特点,严重故障的发生将会造成巨大损失,而现有的故障分析方法和管理手段明显不足。基于传统FMECA方法,结合TRIZ理论和方法,以神光系列激光装置为研究对象,本文提出改进的FMECA分析流程和方法,目的是开展故障模式及影响的多样性分析以及寻找完善的问题纠正措施,从而提高故障归零率,降低系统运行风险     

Finite mixture of regression models for a stratified sample

Despite the popularity and importance, there is limited work on modelling data which come from complex survey design using finite mixture models. In this work, we explored the use of finite mixture regression models when the samples were drawn using a complex survey design. In particular, we considered modelling data collected based on stratified sampling design. We developed a new design-based inference where we integrated sampling weights in the complete-data log-likelihood function. The expectation–maximisation algorithm was developed accordingly. A simulation study was conducted to compare the new methodology with the usual finite mixture of a regression model. The comparison was done using bias-variance components of mean square error. Additionally, a simulation study was conducted to assess the ability of the Bayesian information criterion to select the optimal number of components under the proposed modelling approach. The methodology was implemented on real data with good results.     

运用层次分析法解析复杂网络下的电子商务——以大众点评网为例

以电子商务企业大众点评网为例,将电子商务运营的复杂网络进行分隔、简化处理,运用层次分析法(AHP)理论解析复杂网络下电子商务快速发展的主要动力因素。研究表明,促进电子商务快速发展的主要动力可分为外围推动和内部聚合两大因素,其中外围的硬联网、软形网、商户网、会员网、大众网,以及内部的功能模块要素、激励会员要素、激励商户要素、会员自身要素、商户自身要素相互作用和交互聚合共同推动了电子商务自身的快速增长。     

Community Resilience and Decision Theory Challenges for Catastrophic Events

Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd‐following, group‐think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard‐to‐envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building “disaster‐resilient” communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events.     

R&D网络的自组织演化模型及其仿真研究

从复杂适应系统理论出发,将R&D网络的演化视为复杂系统的自组织过程进行研究。从宏观阶段划分、微观企业行为规则和网络特征统计量3个维度构建R&D网络自组织演化的分析框架,基于复杂网络理论建立R&D网络自组织演化的理论模型,运用数值仿真方法揭示其演化规律以及知识溢出效率对网络特征统计量的影响。研究结果表明,R&D网络的自组织演化过程最终可达到稳定状态,企业具有择优连接的意识,使网络呈现出无标度和集聚特征,知识溢出效率对网络规模、网络利用效率具有显著影响,这为政府正确制定宏观政策提供了理论依据。利用诺基亚的R&D网络对上述理论模型进行验证,模型与实际网络基本吻合,在一定程度上说明模型的正确性。     

基于质量意识的复杂产品质量控制激励策略

激励在复杂产品供应链中对主供协同合作关系及质量控制发挥了重要作用。本文研究基于主制造商在复杂产品生产研发前按照客户要求形成的质量意识的激励策略是否可以实现复杂产品质量控制问题。考虑具有质量意识的主制造商和其系统供应商组成的两级供应链,建立以主制造商为领导者的Stackelberg博弈模型,分别讨论无激励和存在激励时的主供生产最优决策。基于激励方式的不同,将激励策略分为根据供应商产品质量水平激励以及根据主制造商质量意识水平激励两种方式。研究结果表明激励是供应商加强协同合作、改进产品质量的内在动力,主制造商根据质量意识激励供应商可以进一步促使双方协同合作,提高产品质量,使双方获得更高的利润从而实现供应链整体利润最大化。此外用灵敏度分析发现提高主制造商质量意识水平可以增加双方协同合作努力程度,有效提升产品质量水平并实现帕累托改进。     

基于复杂网络的投资组合优化研究

本文基于复杂网络的局部聚类系数改进了传统的全局最小方差投资组合模型。首先通过股票对数收益率的相关系数矩阵构造股票关联网络,然后计算股票关联网络的局部聚类系数,最后通过全局最小方差模型确定最佳投资组合。将改进后的模型应用于A股市场,经过夏普比率、信息比率和欧米茄比率的对比分析得出改进后的投资组合模型在样本外的表现优于传统的全局最小方差投资组合模型。     

Rating System as a Banking Performance Regulator in the Conditions of Transition Economy

Taking into consideration the importance of having a strong banking system, the issue of bank performance evaluation and analysis becomes essential for the bank regulation process in the countries with an emerging economy. For banking performance evaluation and analysis various methods are used in international practice. These methods have many disadvantages and are unusable for the banking systems in the countries with transition economy. In this article a new and complex system of analysis and evaluation of bank performance is described. This is a multidimensional system of bank performance indicators. This system enables to analyze bank performance through integrated indicators, viewing them in corresponding surfaces. Implementation of this system will allow to efficiently analyze bank performance by different directions, to reveal existing problems in the bank, to make corresponding regulation decisions for each bank, and to and group banks according to different criteria.