Engineering confederalism for Iraq

This article examines Iraqi political developments in the last few years. It argues that unless a constitutional mechanism for proper dispersal of political powers across Iraq's regions and branches of its government is developed quickly, it may become too late for defeating Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, stemming the sectarian and ethnic conflicts, overcoming its perpetual crises of governance or for keeping Iraq united. We suggest that a confederal structure is a better and lasting political solution for Iraq than federal or other structural configurations. We also argue that power-sharing and consensus must be intertwined directly into the constitutional fabric of the political structure.     

基于农村居民需求演变规律的供给侧创新研究

分析了我国农村居民生产资料和生活资料需求侧的演变特点与规律,认为当农民的收入水平和恩格尔系数达到小康水平时,满足最低农业生产所需的生产资料和基本温饱的生活资料,不会因为农民收入水平的提高而同比率提高;而满足高效率、享受型、健康型的生产资料和生活资料需求却大幅度增长,此时“供给侧”对商品种类和服务种类的供给创新与发展,成为刺激和促进农村居民消费增长的主要因素。今后应在科技、高效、享受、智能、健康等范畴和方面,提升供给侧对农村居民所需商品和服务的创新和发展能力。     

市场全球化下的战略性自然资源国家治理

中国在原材料出口限制措施案和稀土等产品出口案中的相继败诉,表明中国在战略性自然资源治理方面离市场经济的要求仍有相当差距.符合世贸组织规则的中国战略性自然资源良好治理机制的构建,必须以承认这一差距为思想动力,深入理解市场规律,辨证认识国家自然资源永久主权同世贸组织规则之间的关系与衔接,通过提高体现战略性自然资源稀缺价值的资源税费、制定和执行旨在保护环境的严格而科学的环保制度、建立战略性自然资源类原材料产品储备制度和跟踪制度的路径而完成.     

电子证据概念与审查认定规则的构建研究

电子证据在中国被确立为一种独立证据类型,具有在范畴以及审查认定标准与规则等方面加以特殊研究的必要性。电子证据就其范畴而言,应定义为“以电子形式存储或传输的、用于证明案件事实的数据或信息”,包含“数据、电子、证据”三个要素;就其独立性及其范围而言,区别于书证和物证,但是与证明案件事实的视听资料证据存在交叉,现有立法将交叉部分纳入到电子证据的规制框架之下,这意味着其取证、保存、出示、审查及认定都将适用电子证据的相关规定。电子证据在物理形式与采集技术上的独特性,导致对传统证据相关规则的极大挑战,在真实性审查和认定规则特殊构建方面要求尤为突出。目前国际上对于电子证据真实性审查的规则呈现出两种发展态势：形式审查的门槛在不断降低;这种降低依赖于证据调查活动规范程度的不断提升,即实质审查层面真实性的提升。中国可以借鉴国际经验,确立和完善关于电子证据实质审查和形式审查两个方面的规则。     

中国货币政策的利率规则——基于金融状况指数的分析

为检验中国中央银行是否已将金融市场状况纳入货币政策的框架,采用HTVPVAR模型的脉冲响应构建中国金融市场状况指数,检验结果显示:以金融市场状况指数为转换变量的STR模型形式的利率规则能较好地拟合实际数据,政策利率对通货膨胀缺口的变动存在非线性调整,且金融市场的景气（不景气）将增强（减弱）货币政策对通货膨胀缺口的反应程度。     

Addressing potential prior‐data conflict when using informative priors in proof‐of‐concept studies

Bayesian methods are increasingly used in proof‐of‐concept studies. An important benefit of these methods is the potential to use informative priors, thereby reducing sample size. This is particularly relevant for treatment arms where there is a substantial amount of historical information such as placebo and active comparators. One issue with using an informative prior is the possibility of a mismatch between the informative prior and the observed data, referred to as prior‐data conflict. We focus on two methods for dealing with this: a testing approach and a mixture prior approach. The testing approach assesses prior‐data conflict by comparing the observed data to the prior predictive distribution and resorting to a non‐informative prior if prior‐data conflict is declared. The mixture prior approach uses a prior with a precise and diffuse component. We assess these approaches for the normal case via simulation and show they have some attractive features as compared with the standard one‐component informative prior. For example, when the discrepancy between the prior and the data is sufficiently marked, and intuitively, one feels less certain about the results, both the testing and mixture approaches typically yield wider posterior‐credible intervals than when there is no discrepancy. In contrast, when there is no discrepancy, the results of these approaches are typically similar to the standard approach. Whilst for any specific study, the operating characteristics of any selected approach should be assessed and agreed at the design stage; we believe these two approaches are each worthy of consideration. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

试论司马光的经济思想

司马光的经济思想是保守的,但他的保守是建立在他对中华帝国深刻理解的基础上的。他主张开源节流,阐扬轻徭薄赋、黜奢崇俭、蓄积与常平的“富民”思想。针对日益严重的财政经济危机,他提出了一整套经济改革的主张。最主要的是他对传统社会经济运行规律和经济管理的深刻体认。     

亲亲相隐制度的解读与重构——以和谐社会为背景的思考

我国的亲亲相隐制度源于儒家思想,其合理性基础是人性的根本需求.当行为人面临道德义务和法律义务冲突时,法律是不能强人所难的.顺应当下构建和谐社会之需要,解读亲亲相隐制度的合理价值蕴涵,并借鉴国外刑事法的相关规定,重构亲亲相隐制度具有重大现实意义.     

环境匮乏、社会适应性和紧急冲突:霍马-迪克逊环境安全研究述评

环境安全是当代可持续发展的重要议题。在建构环境匮乏、社会适应性和紧急冲突的因果联系过程中,霍马—迪克逊(Homer-D ixon)探讨了环境安全的本体论与方法论问题,对发展中国家的环境安全问题进行了经验研究,并且建立了较为完整的环境安全理论体系。他的研究有一些启发意义,当然也存在一些不足。     

Studying children in armed conflict: data production,social indicators and analysis

The authors seek to give an overview of ways in which social indicators relevant to research on children affected by armed conflict can be developed, and how such research can be carried out. Technical and methodological challenges involved in this pursuit are discussed. It is argued that data production must consider issues of definition and delineation of the phenomenon of war-affected children more actively than it does currently. An analytical approach is proposed, in which children’s characteristics in different situations, or in different stages of conflict, may be used as intakes to understanding how the social processes pertaining to life histories of children in armed conflict are created and reproduced.