基于AHP-物元综合评判的“工作执法一网考”考核模型及指标体系研究

警务考核是充分调动民警工作积极性，进一步提高打击犯罪和保障平安能力的重要手段，也是世界性难题。广东省公安厅为破解队伍管理的难题，创造性地提出“工作执法一网考”（下称“一网考”）的理念，建设并在全省推广应用“一网考”系统。本文通过对警务绩效考核中存在的问题进行分析，提出了“一网考”的考核模型，在此基础上建立了考核指标体系。基于层次分析法，对考核指标及权重进行了量化，使考核指标具有科学性、客观性和公正性；应用物元理论，建立物元综合评判数学模型，实现对民警的综合评价。     

Statistical Inference for Single‐index Panel Data Models

We study estimation and hypothesis testing in single‐index panel data models with individual effects. Through regressing the individual effects on the covariates linearly, we convert the estimation problem in single‐index panel data models to that in partially linear single‐index models. The conversion is valid regardless of the individual effects being random or fixed. We propose an estimating equation approach, which has a desirable double robustness property. We show that our method is applicable in single‐index panel data models with heterogeneous link functions. We further design a chi‐squared test to evaluate whether the individual effects are random or fixed. We conduct simulations to demonstrate the finite sample performance of the method and conduct a data analysis to illustrate its usefulness.     

金融危机预警指标体系及其结构方程模型构建

金融危机预警指标体系的构建是研究金融危机预警的一个重要环节。对于一个国家或者地区,不同部门之间资金流动的大小和方向反映了金融风险的大小。本研究在建立了金融危机预警指标体系的构建原则后,从数据的统计口径出发,基于资金流动的大小和方向,统筹考虑政府、金融、企业和对外等四个部门之间的关联性,利用结构方程模型,构造了金融危机预警指标体系。最后,通过自回归模型进行指标时滞性分析。     

Designing of a mixed-chain sampling plan based on the process capability index with chain sampling as the attributes plan

In this article, we propose a new mixed chain sampling plan based on the process capability index C_pk, where the quality characteristic of interest having double specification limits and follows the normal distribution with unknown mean and variance. In the proposed mixed plan, the chain sampling inspection plan is used for the inspection of attribute quality characteristics. The advantages of this proposed mixed sampling plan are also discussed. Tables are constructed to determine the optimal parameters for practical applications by formulating the problem as a non linear programming in which the objective function to be minimized is the average sample number and the constraints are related to lot acceptance probabilities at acceptable quality level and limiting quality level under the operating characteristic curve. The practical application of the proposed mixed sampling plan is explained with an illustrative example. Comparison of the proposed sampling plan is also made with other existing sampling plans.     

工业4.0背景下推动辽宁省工业发展的财政政策建议

工业4.0概念的提出标志着人类工业发展迈入了一个新的时代,智能化是工业4.0时代的重要特征。工业发展离不开财政政策的支持,尤其是对于辽宁省这样的工业大省来说,量身打造一套系统的财政支持方案十分重要。这将是一个比较复杂的系统工程,从完善企业获得财政资金支持的考核标准、扩大地方政府财政资金来源、发挥国家相关优惠政策合力,以及结合地区工业特点进行政策的个性化订制四个方面提出建议,为政府部门决策提供参考。     

储层含油气性定量评价中指标权重的确定方法

在综合评价事物特性过程中，权重的确定-直是-个重要难题，长期没有得到良好地解决。本文以川南碳酸盐岩储气层的选井选层研究为例．使用灰色关联分析法，在模糊综合评判中成功地确定了权重。这-成果使油气综合评价更加符合客观实际，也为模糊综合评判法广泛应用提供了良好途径。     

Summarizing Risk Using Risk Measures and Risk Indices

Our society is fascinated with risk in many different areas and disciplines. One of the main ways to describe and communicate the level of risk is through risk indices, which summarize risk using numbers or categories such as words, letters, or colors. These indices are used to communicate risks to the public, understand how risk is changing over time, compare among different risks, and support decision making. Given the different methods to construct risk indices, including flawed methods such as risk matrices, this article develops specific steps that analysts can follow to create a risk index. This article emphasizes the importance of describing risk with a probability distribution, developing a numerical risk measure that summarizes the probability distribution, and finally translating the risk measure to an index. Measuring the risk is the most difficult part and requires the analyst to summarize a probability distribution into one or possibly a few numbers. The risk measure can then be transformed to a numerical or categorical index. I apply the method outlined in this article to construct a risk index that compares the risk of fatalities in aviation and highway transportation.     

基于因子分析法的我国区域人类发展实证研究

本文介绍并引进了以因子分析法为基础构建的人类发展指数(HDI)。通过指标体系的构建、评估方法的选择及与联合国开发计划署制订的人类发展指数比较发现,基于因子分析法的人类发展指数较之传统的方法更适合测算与度量我国区域人类发展水平。     

愚昧还是文明,哪一个离我们更近-中国人口素质逆淘汰的实证分析

中国的人口素质逆淘汰问题不仅是多学科的研究对象,而且是学术界争论的焦点。本文从城乡不同的生育率是造成人口素质逆淘汰的原因出发,采取定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法,指出静态社会中的确存在人口素质逆淘汰,但城镇化不仅控制了人口数量,而且提高了人口素质,因此,加大高等教育的投入和改善医疗卫生条件等提高我国人口素质的根本途径应和推进城镇化相结合,才能达到事半功倍的效果。     

关于中国教育性别隔离的分析

文章以平方根指数作为衡量性别教育不平等的工具,得出以下结论:一、1990年至今,中国教育性别隔离总体呈下降趋势,城乡差异依然显著;二、地区教育性别隔离程度从高到低为东部,西部和中部;三、就各教育层次来看,教育性别隔离下降主要来自义务教育的贡献,高等教育阶段女性受教育机会相对更平等.进一步的分析发现,教育性别隔离状况与经济发展水平及人均教育经费并不相关,与人均受教育年限和出生性别比有一定关系.