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U. S. National Income Series Revised—Congress Votes No on Censuses of Business and Manufactures—Britain Revises Living Cost Index-U. S. and U. K. Surveys Uncover Lacks in Statistical Training-Forthcoming Statistical Conferences     

The Consistent System

The Consistent System (CS) is an interactive computer system for researchers in the behavioral and policy sciences and in fields with similar requirements for data management and statistical analysis. The researcher is not expected to be a programmer. The system offers a wide range of facilities and permits the user to combine them in novel ways. In particular, tools for statistical analysis may be used in combination with a powerful relational subsystem for data base management. This paper gives an overview of the objectives, capabilities, status, and availability of the system.     

Dynamic Graphics for Exploring Spatial Data with Application to Locating Global and Local Anomalies

We explore the application of dynamic graphics to the exploratory analysis of spatial data. We introduce a number of new tools and illustrate their use with prototype software, developed at Trinity College, Dublin. These tools are used to examine local variability—anomalies—through plots of the data that display its marginal and multivariate distributions, through interactive smoothers, and through plots motivated by the spatial auto-covariance ideas implicit in the variogram. We regard these as alternative and linked views of the data. We conclude that the most important single view of the data is the Map View: All other views must be cross-referred to this, and the software must encourage this. The view can be enriched by overlaying on other pertinent spatial information. We draw attention to the possibilities of one-many linking, and to the use of line-objects to link pairs of data points. We draw attention to the parallels with work on Geographical Information Systems.     

Functional sliced inverse regression analysis

Most of the usual multivariate methods have been extended to the context of functional data analysis. Our contribution concerns the study of sliced inverse regression (SIR) when the response variable is real but the regressor is a function. In the first part, we show how the relevant properties of SIR remain essentially the same in the functional context under suitable conditions. Unfortunately, the estimation procedure used in the multivariate case cannot be directly transposed to the functional one. Then, we propose a solution that overcomes this difficulty and we show the consistency of the estimates of the parameters of the model.     

“投票悖论”的分析及其矫正——理性选择理论的“投票现象”应用批判

投票机制是民主政治的制度性保障,但它却存在着一个悖论。这一悖论可被简单地表述为：在投票参与者意识到自己的选票对结果的影响是微不足道的时候,他们往往不会牺牲闲暇以及交通成本等方面的付出到投票站投出手中的选票。美国大选仅仅具有半数左右的参与率似乎也在事实上为以上＂洞见＂提供了心理学依据和社会学依据。在试图解决投票悖论这一问题的过程中,具体分析理性选择理论是如何从一个过分武断化了的前提出发,而走向一条循环论证的死胡同的;进而希望通过为投票动机添加新的变量的方式来缓解理性选择理论的这种弊病。     

Geometric sample size determination in Bayesian analysis

The problem of sample size determination in the context of Bayesian analysis is considered. For the familiar and practically important parameter of a geometric distribution with a beta prior, three different Bayesian approaches based on the highest posterior density intervals are discussed. A computer program handles all computational complexities and is available upon request.     

止斋诗初论

止斋诗在诗思上具有郁勃不平的的政治情感取向,但同时又能融苍浑于平实,归怨艾于雅正,体现出情兼怨雅的趋尚;在诗艺上则有意求雅、求工与求新,体现出醇雅工巧的创作追求。作为"学人之诗",止斋诗具有不可忽视的多重诗学意义,它既折射了南宋永嘉学派的历史演进,同时又在诗歌的抒情性与工巧性追求上对包括"永嘉四灵"在内的"风人之诗"产生了实质性影响,从而真正前驱性地参与了南宋后期唐韵复归,"宋调"式微的诗史进程。     

金代交钞制度新议

自海陵王贞元二年金朝建立交钞制度起,交钞以其繁复的变化深刻地影响了金代的社会经济,甚至影响到了金代国运兴衰。交钞的问世主要不是缘于社会经济的充分发展,而是缺少铜矿等客观因素制约的结果。在金朝行用交钞的八十年间,政府一方面以国家力量强制推行交钞,另一方面为应对纸币危机而屡变钞法。金代交钞制度的演进是典型的强制性变迁,国家是导致这种变迁的主要力量。政府无视货币规律,最终导致了金代交钞制度的崩溃。