Non‐Parametric Change‐Point Tests for Long‐Range Dependent Data

Abstract. We propose a non‐parametric change‐point test for long‐range dependent data, which is based on the Wilcoxon two‐sample test. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis that no change occurred. In a simulation study, we compare the power of our test with the power of a test which is based on differences of means. The results of the simulation study show that in the case of Gaussian data, our test has only slightly smaller power minus.3pt than the ‘difference‐of‐means’ test. For heavy‐tailed data, our test outperforms the ‘difference‐of‐means’ test.     

Numerical Algorithms Group Manual Mark 7

We consider the estimation of the 90 and 95 percentiles of a normal distribution and also the construction of one-sided 90% and 95% -normal ranges. Three methods are proposed -the sample percentile method, and two based on kernel estimates of the density function using Fryer's method and the leaving-one-out method for choosing a smoothing parameter.

A simulation study compares the methods in terms of bias, variance and mean square error of the population percentile estimates and of the eovers of the consequent normal ranges.     

History and role of order statistics

This paper starts with an itroduction which gives definitions of order statistics,makes a clear distinction between order statistics and rank statistics, and gives an overview of the problems in which methods based on order statstics are useful.The following sections deal with the history and role of order sta¬tistics in selected areas: central tendency, dispersion, and regression; treatment of outliers and robust estimation; maximum likelihood estimators; best linear unbiased estimators; extreme-values; multiple comparisons and studentized range. The last two sections discuss a basic coverage property and some of its conse¬quences and describe the author's chronological annotated bibliography of order statistics. Finally, there is a list of references.     

The moving-range chart and autocorrelated processes

This paper investigates the behavior of the moving-range statistic and the performance of the standard moving-range chart in the presence of autocorrelation. The distributional properties and time-series properties of the moving-range statistic are presented. The average run length (ARL) properties of the standard moving-range chart in the presence of autocorrelation and a new proposed chart are presented.     

决策柔性的一般定义、模型与价值

许多学者和决策实践者认为,决策柔性应当具有价值.但这一直觉推测并未在一般的决策理论框架下得到的证实.文章的目的就是要从理论上证明这一推测.通过回顾关于柔性的文献,归纳出柔性的本质属性(范围和速度).进而在决策理论的一般框架下,给出了决策柔性的数学定义,建立了柔性决策模型,并指出了该模型与经典柔性决策模型之间的关系.最后,应用该模型,证明了"决策选项的价值随着决策(范围和(或)反应)柔性水平的提高而增加"这一基本结论.     

国际贸易与多产品企业行为、绩效研究

多产品企业贡献了绝大部分的产出额和贸易额,产品范围和产品组合决策关系到企业内资源配置效率和企业总体生产率。系统梳理和评述了多产品企业国际贸易理论研究文献、多产品企业国际贸易行为与绩效典型事实的经验研究文献和国际贸易影响多产品企业行为与绩效的经验文献。研究认为,多产品企业国际贸易理论由跨国企业具体化模型演变为基于Melitz异质性企业理论的一般化模型,此后从研发投入、管理效率、劳动力技能等企业异质性和可变成本加成、质量差异等产品异质性维度进行了拓展和深化。研究还认为,多产品企业出口产品静态分布偏向于出口额高的产品,出口产品动态转换频繁且贡献绝大部分出口额;进口（出口）贸易自由化、进口产品转换、出口目的地竞争程度、出口状态和汇率等国际贸易相关因素显著影响多产品企业行为和绩效。     

知识产权损害赔偿探讨

在知识产权的经济价值凸现的今天,知识产权侵权行为层出不穷,民事侵权赔偿是最能补偿被侵权人损失的救济方式.文章对我国法律确定的损害赔偿范围、损害赔偿金的计算方法做了简要分析,并对补偿性赔偿与惩罚性赔偿的效果做了对比,认为我国法律应采纳惩罚性赔偿金制度.     

The General Multivariate Gauss—Markov Model of the Incomplete Block Design

The aim of the paper is to generalize testing and estimation for the multivariate standard incomplete block model (Rao & Mitra, 1971a) to the general multivariate Gauss—Markov incomplete block model with singular covariance matrix. The results of this paper can be applied to particular cases of the multivariate Gauss—Markov incomplete block model, including the Zyskind—Martin model.     

井下宽频带发射天线

从一个新的设计思想出发，对地下钻孔中的宽带发射天线进行了探索，获得了一种新颖的柱形宽带天线形式。设计制作了这一种天线，进行了相应的分析和实验。通过现场测试，证明该天线的工作频带至少可达５个倍频程（５．９～３０．９ＭＨｚ），可用以代替目前无透设备中所用的半波振子天线，并达到或超过半波天线的探测距离，是一种新型的宽带发射天线，有极好的应用前景。     

公共预算理论:现状与未来

当前,在公共预算研究领域主要存在渐进预算理论、公共选择理论、政策过程理论、预算改革理论等理论模型,但各自都有其理论缺陷。进入后渐进主义时代后,公共预算研究领域又出现了新的理论思考,包括鲁宾的描述性理论、凯顿的模式分析、勒娄普的微观和宏观预算理论、希克关于预算基本要素的分析,但它们都不足以形成公共预算的一般性理论。由于建立一种无所不包的"大理论"不可能,我们主张建立一种能够识别预算过程的关键性变量及其相互关系的"中层理论",以便在一定的约束条件下对预算结果进行预测。