重视解决收入差距问题是宏观经济向好的关键

经过连续数年实行扩张性的宏观经济政策,目前继续依靠扩张投资需求拉动经济增长的空间已十分有限;制约我国内需扩大和经济增长的主要矛盾是居民消费需求不足,而消费需求迟迟无法全面启动的根本原因在于近年来迅速扩大的收入分配差距;非法非正常收入是造成收入差距过大的主要根源;因此,无论从经济增长还是从社会发展角度看,现在都是突出地提出和解决收入差距过大问题的时候了。     

秦皇岛国有商业银行个人消费信贷的现状与对策研究

个人消费信贷是国有商业银行信贷业务的新兴领域,对银行拓展服务领域,取得竞争优势有着重要意义。本文在对秦皇岛市国有商业银行个人消费信贷现状的调查基础上,通过比较分析,找出个人消费信贷发展的制约因素,并提出相应的对策及建议。     

Convergence in the Social Welfare Systems in Europe: From Goal to Reality

The history of the social welfare systems in Europe in the postwar period appears as autonomous national processes because the construction of Europe which imposed common rules in many areas was equally consistent with the national development of social welfare systems, within each national culture. However, the idea of a common system of social protection has always remained linked to political and economic European construction which would create a more cohesive society. Many studies have analysed the trend of specific social policies and their convergence or divergence in Europe. Therefore, global convergence is often conceived as resulting from the domestic dynamics of each social risk. The paper focuses on one specific topic: the quantitative evaluation of convergence among the EU and OECD countries at the macroeconomic level. In the first part we explain the construction of social indicators which can assess the convergence or divergence of social expenditure in EU and OECD countries. In the second part we show many methodological problems and difficulties of interpretation of the social indicators. Then we see that the analysis of national trajectories of social expenditure and the link with economic development can enrich the analysis of convergence in social protection. Finally, the empirical analysis supports the idea of “adjustment” reforms rather than radical changes in a transitional period.     

区域消费波动与区域经济增长关系的计量分析

以新古典经济学为理论依据,在完全可替代生产函数的基础上构建了基于区域消费波动与经济增长的分析模型。利用长系列的区域经济产出(GDP)及其构成数据、劳动力投入数据等,计算、模拟了从1981—2000年我国省市区消费波动对区域经济增长的影响。模型结果显示:(1)区域资本、劳动力投入的增长对我国区域经济增长的作用是积极的,起到了推动作用;其中,以资本投入增长对区域经济的增长推进作用最大,其次是劳动力增长的作用。(2)区域消费的波动对区域经济增长产生不利影响,起阻碍作用。     

上海市城镇居民消费行为实证分析

居民消费越来越成为一个地区经济发展的动力,居民消费结构、消费倾向作为居民消费行为的重要参数,对该地区经济健康、持续发展有重要影响。文章采用扩展支出系统模型,定量地讨论了上海市城镇居民在食品、衣着、家庭设备、医疗保健、交通通信、娱乐文化、居住及杂项商品和服务等8大类项目上的消费行为。从而看出上海市城镇居民消费主要集中在食品、居住方面,消费较低的是医疗、交通和通信。     

完善税制调整需求的思考

扩大内需是我国经济发展长期的、基本的立足点,进一步扩大出口是经济发展的有力保障。税收作为国家宏观经济调控的经济杠杆,对需求的扩大和经济的持续稳定增长有一定的影响。我们有必要把完善税制和扩大需求结合起来,从消费、投资、出口三方面促进经济的可持续发展,以实现全面建设小康社会的奋斗目标。     

唐代军籍虚占与军费

唐代军籍勘简趋向于军额限定 ,中唐以后 ,额内兵与额外兵并存 ,但军籍虚占、窜名挂籍、军功虚冒之风 ,普遍存在于各道诸军之中。军费漏洞愈益严重。这些现象导致唐廷财政亏空 ,进而成为国政之弊。唐政府采取的弥补措施软弱无力、不济于事     

对我国居民消费增长的利率弹性的实证分析

本文运用 1978～ 2 0 0 1年间的相关数据 ,在分别考察了城市和农村居民消费行为的基础上 ,对我国居民消费行为的利率弹性作出定量分析 ,得出我国居民的消费行为对利率具有一定的敏感性的结论。文章最后指出了一些影响我国利率政策消费弹性的原因 ,这些原因主要有 :我国居民收入差距扩大、生活中的不确定性因素增强、利率的收入效应以及消费结构的改变等     

试析中国国际收支构成对人民币汇率的影响

中国国际收支的3个主要构成部分对人民币汇率的影响正在发生着深刻变化,其中,经常项目在人民币汇率决定中的作用在减弱;资本项目对人民币汇率的影响在逐步加强;外汇储备的作用以调节国际收支为主转向了以干预外汇市场、保持人民币汇率基本稳定为主。     

Lognormal Distributions for Fish Consumption by the General U.S. Population

The rate of fish consumption is a critical variable in the assessment of human health risk from water bodies affected by chemical contamination and in the establishment of federal and state Ambient Water Quality Criteria (AWQC). For 1973 and 1974, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) analyzed data on the consumption of salt-water finfish, shellfish, and freshwater finfish from all sources in 10 regions of the United States for three age groups in the general population: children (ages 1 through 11 years), teenagers (ages 12 through 18 years), and adults (ages 19 through 98 years). Even though the NMFS data reported in Ref. 14 are 20 years old, they remain the most complete data on the overall consumption of all fish by the general U.S. population and they have been widely used to select point values for consumption. Using three methods, we fit lognormal distributions to the results of the survey as analyzed and published in Ref. 14. Strong lognormal fits were obtained for most of the 90 separate data sets. These results cannot necessarily be used to model the consumption of fish by sport or subsistence anglers from specific sites or from single water bodies.