The 2015 welfare reform of the National Basic Livelihood Security System in South Korea: Effects on economic outcomes

In July 2015, South Korea’s National Basic Livelihood Security System (NBLSS) was reformed for the purposes of eliminating welfare blind spots and reducing poverty. The reform is expected to affect the recipients’ economic behaviours and choices. In this study, we used changes in benefits and eligibility for the NBLSS under the customised benefit system to identify the effects of the change in the NBLSS on a proposed set of economic outcomes – income, labour supply, consumption, savings, poverty reduction. To estimate the effects, we used data from the 10th–12th waves of the Korea Welfare Panel Study and employed a difference‐in‐differences framework integrated with the propensity scores. We found that the NBLSS helps the poor to reduce financial and material hardships through income and consumption increments, but that it does not provide disincentives to the recipients from participating in the labour market or from saving.     

Alcohol consumption among undergraduate social work students at a South African university

ABSTRACT

Alcohol consumption among tertiary level students is a public health problem that can adversely affect students’ performance at university. This study therefore investigated the drinking patterns; reasons for drinking; and the perceived impact of drinking on academic performance of undergraduate social work students at a South African university. Of the 145 students who completed a group administered survey questionnaire, 88% reported using alcohol mainly for social purposes and enjoyment, with two-fifths admitting to participating in binge drinking. Despite these findings, a high proportion (78%) reported not performing poorly on a test or exam due to alcohol consumption in the preceding 12 months. Recommendations are provided for the education and support of social work students as future healthcare professionals.     

On hysteretic vector autoregressive model with applications

This paper proposes a new hysteretic vector autoregressive (HVAR) model in which the regime switching may be delayed when the hysteresis variable lies in a hysteresis zone. We integrate an adapted multivariate Student-t distribution from amending the scale mixtures of normal distributions. This HVAR model allows for a higher degree of flexibility in the degrees of freedom for each time series. We use the proposed model to test for a causal relationship between any two target time series. Using posterior odds ratios, we overcome the limitations of the classical approach to multiple testing. Both simulated and real examples herein help illustrate the suggested methods. We apply the proposed HVAR model to investigate the causal relationship between the quarterly growth rates of gross domestic product of United Kingdom and United States. Moreover, we check the pairwise lagged dependence of daily PM2.5 levels in three districts of Taipei.     

On Hotelling’s T2 test in a special paired sample case

In a special paired sample case, Hotelling’s T² test based on the differences of the paired random vectors is the likelihood ratio test for testing the hypothesis that the paired random vectors have the same mean; with respect to a special group of affine linear transformations it is the uniformly most powerful invariant test for the general alternative of a difference in mean. We present an elementary straightforward proof of this result. The likelihood ratio test for testing the hypothesis that the covariance structure is of the assumed special form is derived and discussed. Applications to real data are given.     

Confidence intervals based on the deviance statistic for the hyperparameters in state space models

The main objective of this work is to evaluate the performance of confidence intervals, built using the deviance statistic, for the hyperparameters of state space models. The first procedure is a marginal approximation to confidence regions, based on the likelihood test, and the second one is based on the signed root deviance profile. Those methods are computationally efficient and are not affected by problems such as intervals with limits outside the parameter space, which can be the case when the focus is on the variances of the errors. The procedures are compared to the usual approaches existing in the literature, which includes the method based on the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator, as well as bootstrap confidence intervals. The comparison is performed via a Monte Carlo study, in order to establish empirically the advantages and disadvantages of each method. The results show that the methods based on the deviance statistic possess a better coverage rate than the asymptotic and bootstrap procedures.     

浅析房地产市场复苏的制约因素及其对策

房地产市场包括一级市场和二级市场，二级市场又包括消费市场和投资市场。现在的政策导向只注重房地产消费市场部分，而忽视了其投资市场部分，这是潜力巨大的市场。房地产只有真正成为大众投资品种时，才可能促进房地产一、二级市场的共同繁荣     

从分税制到项目制:制度演进和组织机制

分税制改革以后,中国随之进行了公共预算体制改革,由此形成了一种新的国家治理体制——项目制。地方政府的项目支出主要有三种类型：上级专项转移支付、上级非补助性项目支出和本级项目支出。三类项目支出在地方得以汇聚和重组,在很大程度上形塑了基层政府的财政结构。项目制本质上不是对科层制的一种摆脱或超越,而是国家主动对政府科层体系的一次完善和补充,是近代国家政权建设在新时期的延续与拓展。项目制的直接目的是“硬化”预算约束,深层目的是增强政府的回应能力,二者在实践中呈现一定张力,政府治理的理性化和技术化并不必然增强其对公共需求的回应能力,甚至可能形成反向效应。     

中国社会保障公共支出省际比较研究

在借鉴社会保障制度比较研究的经典理论和模型的基础上,本文依据中国31个省份的年度截面数据对影响各省社会保障公共支出水平的因素进行了统计分析和模型检验。研究结果发现,中国各省级政府的社会保障公共支出水平存在着巨大的差异。政府力量是造成各省社会保障公共支出水平差异的首要因素,其次是单位体制因素,再次是经济发展水平因素。     

北京市现代制造业的产业组织结构分析

北京现代制造业的发展已有4年时间,对其发展状况和存在问题有必要从不同角度做出一个基本判断。本文主要从产业组织学的角度分析北京现代制造业产业组织结构的现状,探讨其存在的问题,并提出优化北京现代制造业产业组织的对策与建议。     

农民工参与城镇医疗保障的行为研究

文章利用农民工调查数据,研究了农民工参与城镇医疗保障的影响因素以及城镇医疗保障对农民工医疗支出决策和医疗费用的影响,考察城镇医疗保障制度是否解决了农民工的医疗保障问题。研究结果发现,自评健康状况很好和很不好的农民工都不愿意参与城镇医疗保障,城镇医疗保障既存在逆向选择,也没有有效分散农民工的医疗风险。农民工是否有医疗支出和医疗费用的多少主要取决于疾病严重程度,农民工参与城镇医疗保障对此没有显著性影响。因此,现行农民工城镇医疗保障制度还没有起到为农民工提供足够的医疗保障作用。