扩大消费需求的新思维

消费需求不足是困扰我国经济发展的大问题,扩大内需是我国经济工作的重中之重。要充分发挥消费需求对经济的拉动作用。需要对超万亿的储蓄进行合理引导,向消费等领域分流资金。提出启动我国消费,拓展扩大消费需求的新空间,促进经济持续增长的建议和措施。     

Efficient sequential estimation in multiplicative counting processes

The problem of efficient sequential estimation is counting processes with multiplicative intensity processes is considered. A sequential version of Cramér-Rao type information inequality is obtained and all the 'efficient' triples (S, f, g) are characterized: the variance of an unbiased estimator f for g attains the lower bound under a sampling plan S. Applications to Poisson processes, Markov processes, birth and death processes and Markov branching processes with immigration are also considered.     

Determining the Number of Primitive Shocks in Factor Models

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in the National Income and Product Accounts are often used to investigate whether the time series properties of consumption are consistent with the permanent-income/life-cycle hypotheses. In this article, I address the issue of the general quality of the PCE data and its definitional consistency with the typical model of the intertemporal allocation of consumption. I find that, in terms of the population coverage and the consumption concept, the raw PCE data are unsuitable for the analysis of the permanent-income/life-cycle hypotheses. More fundamentally, adjustments to the data to provide greater consistency with the theory alter critical conclusions concerning the time series properties of consumption.     

中国城乡居民消费差距与收入差距的误差修正模型研究

在以绝对收入假说为基础的消费函数分析中发现,消费倾向差距对城乡居民消费差距的影响不显著,收入差距对城乡居民消费差距影响显著。在此基础上,通过构造城乡居民消费差距与收入差距的误差修正模型,发现他们之间还存在着长期稳定的均衡关系。格兰杰因果检验表明:在10%的显著性水平下,城乡居民消费差距与收入差距有双向的因果关系。为此,要有效缩小城乡居民消费差距,需要消费政策与收入政策协同并进。     

中国碳强度影响因素长期均衡与动态分析

选择人均GDP、能源强度、第二产业比重等三个影响因素变量,采用协整理论和误差修正模型分析中国碳强度与三个影响因素变量之间的长期均衡关系,再运用VAR模型的脉冲响应与方差分析等方法分析人均GDP、第二产业比重、能源强度对碳强度的动态影响。研究表明：从长期看,这三个因素对碳强度均产生正影响,其中能源强度对碳强度的影响最大;从动态影响来看,第二产业比重对碳强度影响最明显。因此,降低能源强度和第二产业比重能有效地减少碳强度,特别是调整降低第二产业比重既能提高能源利用率,同时又能减少碳强度。     

Partial self-exciting point processes and their parameter estimations

Abstract

A partial self-exciting point process is proposed based on some phenomena in real world, which is a new kind of Hawkes process with partial self-exciting effect. The features, properties and moments of the partial self-exciting point process are investigated in terms of Dynkin formula and the method proposed by Cui et al. (2017 Cui, L., Hawkes, R. A. G. Yi. and H. 2017. A new method for moments of Hawkes processes. (submitted). [Google Scholar]), and the relationship between the new and conventional Hawkes processes is given. The maximum-likelihood estimations (MLEs) for the parameters in the partial self-exciting point process for two data situations are given via some sets of equations that can be solved numerically by suing the commend fslove in Matlab. Some numerical examples are presented based on simulation data to illustrate the MLE method, and an algorithm to generate the random event times for the partial self-exciting point process is presented as well. A primary goal of the work is to extend the applicability of Hawkes process and to present the MLE of parameters for partial self-exciting point process.     

Upper Bounds for the Ruin Probabilities of the Entrance-Based Risk Model

Li et al. (2005 Li , Z. , Zhu , J. , Chen , F. ( 2005 ). Study of a risk model based on the entrance process . Statist. Probab. Lett. 72 ( 1 ): 1 – 10 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) proposed a risk model based on the entrance process and studied the asymptotic behavior of the surplus when time goes to infinity. This article considers the ruin problem in that model. Some simple characteristics (stochastic intensity, compensator, mean process, etc.) of the risk process and other related processes are also considered. Under small claim condition, exponential upper bounds for the ruin probability are obtained.     

中国独生代消费者炫耀性消费动机的实证分析

消费者对炫耀性商品的消费动机与一般消费品有很大不同,现有消费者行为理论未对炫耀性消费动机给出恰当的解释,更缺乏对特定群体消费者炫耀性消费动机的系统研究。鉴于中国人的炫耀性消费日益呈现低龄化倾向,在中国文化背景下针对独生代群体的炫耀性消费动机进行实证研究,得出中国独生代消费者炫耀性消费动机的三维因子结构。包括“面子”动机、自我享乐动机和追求独特动机。     

从传统伦理到消费伦理——当代伦理学变革中的一种立场

传统伦理是在前资本逻辑时代中确立的人与人之间的伦理。当代资本逻辑条件下的消费社会产生了“异化消费”,从而迫使消费伦理问题成为可能。消费伦理虽然并非是对传统伦理学的彻底颠覆,但消费伦理却超越了传统伦理的有效界限——消费伦理把后代人拓展为伦理对象,从而试图在人对自然物的审美关系中,以及对消费的哲学反思中建构当代人与后代人之间的伦理。在这个意义上,消费伦理越来越成为当代伦理学变革中的一种立场。     

基于农民福利视角对农村消费与经济增长的考察

农村消费不足是当前面临的突出问题,而对农村消费问题研究长期缺乏福利理论视角。事实上,农村消费与农民的基本福利水平有着密切的联系。通过对农民福利的制度考察和现实分析,尝试开启透视农村消费与经济增长的新视角,而研究表明：长期以来,国家在农村只承担最低限度的福利责任,结果导致农民福利水平低下,成为制约农村消费的主要因素。因此,只有调整政策取向,从农村生产福利、保障福利、生活福利和科技福利着手,改变制度的不足与缺陷,让农民共享经济发展的成果,使农民的福利状况得到根本性改善,才能增强农民的消费信心和消费能力,扩大农村消费,保持经济平稳较快增长。