扩大公民有序政治参与问题的研究

扩大公民有序的政治参与是 2 1世纪中国政治发展面临的重大课题 ,是不断完善人民当家作主的民主制度的重要体现。本文重点论述了在实现社会主义现代化进程中 ,扩大公民有序的政治参与的现实意义及如何扩大公民有序的政治参与     

中小企业内部控制系统现状及完善对策的探讨

会计信息失真现象与社会环境、经济环境、市场经济的发育程度等企业的外部环境息息相关，但单位内部控制系统弱化是一个更重要、更直接的内部因素。因此，建立和加强单位的内部控制，使内部控制合理设计并有效实施，才能最大可能地防止会计造假等错弊行为的发生，保证会计信息的真实、完整、相关、透明，才能促使企业价值的增值。本文以中小企业作为研究对象，对中小企业如何加强与完善内部控制系统作了一些探讨，提出了一些具体的措施。     

局部理性市场的预期分析

在一个发育不完善、组织效率较低的商品或资本市场中,不同的市场主体拥有不同信息并产生预期模式的差异,由于交易者之间的信息屏障在短期内无法有效消除,导致预期的异质化长期存在并使市场仅具有局部理性.局部理性市场价格的稳定性取决于理性投机与非理性交易行为的力量对比,而不成熟市场经常显现的过度波动性则往往是理性投机处于弱势的表现.     

Modeling for Risk Assessment of Neurotoxic Effects

The regulation of noncancer toxicants, including neurotoxicants, has usually been based upon a reference dose (allowable daily intake). A reference dose is obtained by dividing a no-observed-effect level by uncertainty (safety) factors to account for intraspecies and interspecies sensitivities to a chemical. It is assumed that the risk at the reference dose is negligible, but no attempt generally is made to estimate the risk at the reference dose. A procedure is outlined that provides estimates of risk as a function of dose. The first step is to establish a mathematical relationship between a biological effect and the dose of a chemical. Knowledge of biological mechanisms and/or pharmacokinetics can assist in the choice of plausible mathematical models. The mathematical model provides estimates of average responses as a function of dose. Secondly, estimates of risk require selection of a distribution of individual responses about the average response given by the mathematical model. In the case of a normal or lognormal distribution, only an estimate of the standard deviation is needed. The third step is to define an adverse level for a response so that the probability (risk) of exceeding that level can be estimated as a function of dose. Because a firm response level often cannot be established at which adverse biological effects occur, it may be necessary to at least establish an abnormal response level that only a small proportion of individuals would exceed in an unexposed group. That is, if a normal range of responses can be established, then the probability (risk) of abnormal responses can be estimated. In order to illustrate this process, measures of the neurotransmitter serotonin and its metabolite 5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid in specific areas of the brain of rats and monkeys are analyzed after exposure to the neurotoxicant methylene-dioxymethamphetamine. These risk estimates are compared with risk estimates from the quantal approach in which animals are classified as either abnormal or not depending upon abnormal serotonin levels.     

论我国民事诉讼检察监督制度的完善

目前民事检察监督存在监督范围狭窄、监督方法过于单一、监督流于形式等诸多问题;针对这些问题,有必要采取一系列对策,如转变观念、完善立法、建立检察人员和审判人员轮换机制,以完善我国民事诉讼检察监督制度,实现司法公正。     

浅谈高校音乐欣赏课的教学改革

改革音乐欣赏课的部分内容 ,采取新颖的教学形式和教学方法 ,从而培养学生的综合欣赏能力     

创新驱动下新零售服务供应链质量协同改进的稳态策略

技术和消费的“双升”加快了新零售服务供应链的形成和产生,同时也通过驱动其质量系统的协同改进及动态演化实现持续的发展。本文从创新驱动质量的动态视角,分析创新驱动下新零售服务供应链中多主体协同质量改进的运行机制和动态演化过程,运用演化博弈方法分析构建多主体协同的动态演化博弈模型,以此分析新零售服务供应链协同质量改进中各参与主体的博弈策略选择,并利用雅克比矩阵判断其策略稳定性。研究表明：在多元参与主体利益诉求得到满足的前提下,多主体协同质量改进能够保持系统稳定状态;多主体间的质量势差与协同质量改进稳定性呈现出反比关系;良好的质量协同效应、独立的内部监督机制等能有效的促进协同质量改进系统稳定。     

Estimation for Continuous Branching Processes

The maximum-likelihood estimator for the curved exponential family given by continuous branching processes with immigration is investigated. These processes originated from population biology but also model the dynamics of interest rates and development of the state of technology in economics. It is proved that in contrast to branching processes with discrete space and/or time the MLE gives a unified approach to the inference. In order to include singular subdomains of the parameter space we modify the MLE slightly. Consistency and asymptotic normality for the MLE are considered. Concerning the asymptotic theory of the experiments, all three properties LAQ, LAN, and LAMN occur for different submodels     

Data envelopment analysis in the presence of measurement error: case study from the National Database of Nursing Quality Indicators® (NDNQI®)

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is the most commonly used approach for evaluating healthcare efficiency [B. Hollingsworth, The measurement of efficiency and productivity of health care delivery. Health Economics 17(10) (2008), pp. 1107–1128], but a long-standing concern is that DEA assumes that data are measured without error. This is quite unlikely, and DEA and other efficiency analysis techniques may yield biased efficiency estimates if it is not realized [B.J. Gajewski, R. Lee, M. Bott, U. Piamjariyakul, and R.L. Taunton, On estimating the distribution of data envelopment analysis efficiency scores: an application to nursing homes’ care planning process. Journal of Applied Statistics 36(9) (2009), pp. 933–944; J. Ruggiero, Data envelopment analysis with stochastic data. Journal of the Operational Research Society 55 (2004), pp. 1008–1012]. We propose to address measurement error systematically using a Bayesian method (Bayesian DEA). We will apply Bayesian DEA to data from the National Database of Nursing Quality Indicators^® to estimate nursing units’ efficiency. Several external reliability studies inform the posterior distribution of the measurement error on the DEA variables. We will discuss the case of generalizing the approach to situations where an external reliability study is not feasible.     

企业内部控制的思考

现代企业从事的社会化大生产,具有分工精细、协作广泛的特点。日新月异的科学技术、加速发展的全球一体化进程,使得企业面临着错综复杂的政治、经济、文化、社会等内部环境。因此,企业要正确定位,优化设计,实施与持续改进绩效考评,建立资源计划系统以应对不断变化的形势。