局部理性市场的预期分析

在一个发育不完善、组织效率较低的商品或资本市场中,不同的市场主体拥有不同信息并产生预期模式的差异,由于交易者之间的信息屏障在短期内无法有效消除,导致预期的异质化长期存在并使市场仅具有局部理性.局部理性市场价格的稳定性取决于理性投机与非理性交易行为的力量对比,而不成熟市场经常显现的过度波动性则往往是理性投机处于弱势的表现.     

新微派建筑初探

文章探讨了新徽派建筑的类型和特征,对新徽派建筑的作品进行了评析。分析了20世纪80年代以来新徽派建筑的四条主要探索途径及成因,着重论述了它推陈出新的内涵和美学特征以及对新地方风格建筑探索的启示意义。     

论现代教学媒体在高校《现代文学》教学中的应用

现代教学媒体的应用 ,为《现代文学》新型教学模式的建构提供了理想的教学环境。它的合理使用 ,有利于学生知识的获取与保持 ,有利于学生兴趣的激发和智力的开启 ,有利于学生各种能力的培养     

主审法官负责制的实现条件及当前应解决的问题

主审法官负责制是人民法院为实现司法公正解决司法独立问题所进行的内部结构性改革,在推行时须注意五大实现条件和解决好当前存在的三大问题。在实现条件上,要求主审法官有较高的业务素质和良好的政治道德素质,为此,应搞好法官的选任工作,在此基础上,建立完善的法官任职保障、物质保障制度和落实主审法官职务上的权利和义务。而须解决的三大问题是,当前应对现有法官队伍进行选拔淘汰并合理分流,对已任或新任法官加强培养工作,增强其业务技能,对行政化的审判业务运作机制应予以消除,实现主审法官独立办案。     

实现以人为本的的图书馆服务理念

"用户至上,服务第一"是图书馆的核心价值观,图书馆的服务质量直接影响着图书馆工作的发展。本文介绍了新时期图书馆读者服务工作的特征,探讨了图书馆的以人为本、个性化服务内容和服务方式。     

On Rates of Convergence for Bayesian Density Estimation

Abstract.  We consider the problem of estimating a compactly supported density taking a Bayesian nonparametric approach. We define a Dirichlet mixture prior that, while selecting piecewise constant densities, has full support on the Hellinger metric space of all commonly dominated probability measures on a known bounded interval. We derive pointwise rates of convergence for the posterior expected density by studying the speed at which the posterior mass accumulates on shrinking Hellinger neighbourhoods of the sampling density. If the data are sampled from a strictly positive, α -Hölderian density, with α  ∈ ( 0,1] , then the optimal convergence rate n^{− α / (2 α +1)} is obtained up to a logarithmic factor. Smoothing histograms by polygons, a continuous piecewise linear estimator is obtained that for twice continuously differentiable, strictly positive densities satisfying boundary conditions attains a rate comparable up to a logarithmic factor to the convergence rate n ^−4/5 for integrated mean squared error of kernel type density estimators.     

On an adaptive version of the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm with independent proposal distribution

In this paper, we present a general formulation of an algorithm, the adaptive independent chain (AIC), that was introduced in a special context in Gåsemyr et al . [ Methodol. Comput. Appl. Probab. 3 (2001)]. The algorithm aims at producing samples from a specific target distribution Π, and is an adaptive, non-Markovian version of the Metropolis–Hastings independent chain. A certain parametric class of possible proposal distributions is fixed, and the parameters of the proposal distribution are updated periodically on the basis of the recent history of the chain, thereby obtaining proposals that get ever closer to Π. We show that under certain conditions, the algorithm produces an exact sample from Π in a finite number of iterations, and hence that it converges to Π. We also present another adaptive algorithm, the componentwise adaptive independent chain (CAIC), which may be an alternative in particular in high dimensions. The CAIC may be regarded as an adaptive approximation to the Gibbs sampler updating parametric approximations to the conditionals of Π.     

Optimal scaling of Metropolis algorithms: Heading toward general target distributions

The authors provide an overview of optimal scaling results for the Metropolis algorithm with Gaussian proposal distribution. They address in more depth the case of high‐dimensional target distributions formed of independent, but not identically distributed components. They attempt to give an intuitive explanation as to why the well‐known optimal acceptance rate of 0.234 is not always suitable. They show how to find the asymptotically optimal acceptance rate when needed, and they explain why it is sometimes necessary to turn to inhomogeneous proposal distributions. Their results are illustrated with a simple example.     

考虑环境因素下的上海世博会经济影响评价

通过对环境生态成本的分析，根据上海市2002年的投入产出表，建立了基于资源一经济一环境绿色投入产出表的绿色GDP核算方法。利用这一方法对2010年上海世博会对上海经济一环境影响进行分析研究，结果反映了上海世博会对上海的综合影响。     

中国近世以来对外开放的历史轨迹及其启示

自近世以来,中国对外开放经由两次鸦片战争期间的被动不适、洋务运动至民国末年的主动适应直至新中国的自主经略,其间先后出现半殖民地化的对外开放格局和全方位、多层次、宽领域的对外开放格局;新中国自主经略对外开放的进程自20世纪70年代末起相继实现三次历史性飞跃。贯穿于近世以来中国对外开放过程的主题一直是中华民族实现伟大复兴、自立于世界民族之林的追求;对外开放历程之于来者,启示价值颇丰。