Current Situation and Prospects for the Urbanization of Chinese Migrant Workers

本论文运用年龄结构—生命周期方法分析农民工就业状况对他们城镇化的影响。基于中国企业用工年轻化、农民工失业中年化的现状,论文首先运用年龄结构—生命周期模型进行了估算,指出为了全家城镇化,农民工夫妻婚后一般需要连续工作30年。在此基础上,论文构建了农民工工作寿命表,用以估算中国具备城镇化最低限度经济能力的农民工总量。考虑到未来企业用工年龄结构的变化,预计2006年时年龄在30岁以下的6900多万农民工及其家属都已具备在城镇定居的最起码的经济条件。

关键词: 农民工城镇化?农民工就业?年龄结构—生命周期模型?工作年限?中年失业

This article uses the age‐structure/life‐cycle method to analyze the impact of migrant workers’ employment on their urbanization. Since enterprises tend to employ younger workers and unemployed migrant workers tend to be middle‐aged, we first apply the age structure/life cycle model to carry out our estimations, pointing out that in order to complete the urbanization of their families, migrant worker couples usually have to work for thirty years consecutively after marriage. On this basis, the article constructs a working life table for migrant workers and uses it to estimate the total quantity of Chinese migrant workers who have the minimum economic capacity required for urbanization. Taking into consideration future changes in the age structure of enterprise employment, we estimate that over the sixty‐ nine million migrant workers who were under thirty years old in 2006, together with their families, would already be in possession of the minimum economic conditions for settling in urban areas.     

The increasing importance of place: neighbourhood differences in metropolitan Sweden, 1990–2006

The shift from a fairly equitably distributed economy to a more unequal one is likely to have consequences. This article investigates neighbourhood differences in three cities in Sweden between 1990 and 2006 using panel registry data for the total population. The results show increasing neighbourhood differences in the outcomes of student grades and youth unemployment. Neighbourhood differences were computed for both those belonging to the majority of the population and visible minorities, and it was determined that the differences are not the result of an increase in the number of immigrants in poorer neighbourhoods. The majority population displays the largest differences in both grades and unemployment. The increase in disparities among neighbourhoods regarding outcomes for youth is a warning sign: it could lead to low motivation, loss of aspirations and social unrest.     

Mortality inequality in two native population groups

A sample of people aged 40–67 years, taken from a longitudinal register compiled by Statistics Finland, is used to analyse mortality differences between Swedish speakers and Finnish speakers in Finland. Finnish speakers are known to have higher death rates than Swedish speakers. The purpose is to explore whether labour-market experience and partnership status, treated as proxies for measures of variation in health-related characteristics, are related to the mortality differential. Persons who are single, disability pensioners, and those having experienced unemployment are found to have substantially higher death rates than those with a partner and employed persons. Swedish speakers have a more favourable distribution on both variables, which thus notably helps to reduce the Finnish–Swedish mortality gradient. A conclusion from this study is that future analyses on the topic should focus on mechanisms that bring a greater proportion of Finnish speakers into the groups with poor health or supposed unhealthy behaviour.     

The effect of labour market polarization on university students’ job market‐related outcomes in the Republic of Korea: Implications for youth unemployment

This article aims to assess the effect of the labour market environment on university students’ labour market‐related behaviour in the Republic of Korea. Using data from the country's Graduates Occupational Mobility Survey for 2005–13, the author estimates the effect of macroeconomic variables on university students’ job market‐related outcomes. Results indicate that labour market polarization, as measured by the labour market polarization index developed by Chung and Jung (2016), has a significant effect on both the nominal and masked (through extension of university enrolment and university transfers) unemployment of university students. These findings imply that the labour market structure is a key element in understanding youth unemployment.     

Alternative approaches to testing non-nested models with autocorrelated disturbances

Since departures from the classical assumptions regarding the disturbances in a linear tegression model arise frequently in empirical application, deveral computationally Straightforward procedutes are presented in this paper for testiog non-nested models when the disturbances of these models follow first- or higher-order autoregressive processes. Anempirical example is used to illustrate how the procedures may be used to test competing Keynesian and New Classical non-nested models of unemployment for the U.S using annual time series data for 1955-85.     

Assessing the impact of initial nonresponse and attrition in the analysis of unemployment duration with panel surveys

We show how register data combined at person-level with survey data can be used to conduct a novel type of nonresponse analysis in a panel survey. The availability of register data provides a unique opportunity to directly test the type of the missingness mechanism as well as estimate the size of bias due to initial nonresponse and attrition. We are also able to study in-depth the determinants of initial nonresponse and attrition. We use the Finnish subset of the European Community Household Panel (FI ECHP) data combined with register panel data and unemployment spells as outcome variables of interest. Our results show that initial nonresponse and attrition are clearly different processes driven by different background variables. Both the initial nonresponse and attrition mechanisms are nonignorable with respect to analysis of unemployment spells. Finally, our results suggest that initial nonresponse may play a role at least as important as attrition in causing bias. This result challenges the common view of attrition being the main threat to the value of panel data.     

Can welfare and labour market regimes explain cross‐country differences in the unemployment of young people?

No single institution can reduce (long‐term) youth unemployment. Welfare and labour market institutions function as “bundles”, through multiple inter‐institutional synergies. Based on a focused literature review for theory and on cluster analysis for empirics, the author identifies five such regimes across the EU‐27 and estimates their effects on the youth unemployment ratio and on long‐term youth unemployment. The most helpful institutional arrangement for young people in the labour market would be a combination of strong dual apprenticeship embedded in a corporatist labour market regime with high levels of social security, active labour market policy, and spending on education and childcare.     

Structural invariance and stability of sense of coherence: A longitudinal analysis of two groups with different employment experiences

This 5-year follow-up study investigated the structure and the factorial invariance of the 13-item sense of coherence (SOC) scale (Antonovsky, ) in two employment groups (unemployment/lay-off experiences vs. continuous full-time employment) and across two measurement times. In addition, the stability of SOC between these two employment groups was compared. The postal questionnaire data was collected twice, in 1992 and in 1997. The participants were Finnish technical designers (N=352) aged between 25 and 40 years in 1992. A total of 51% of the investigated participants had been employed full-time during the 5-year follow-up period and 49% had been unemployed and/or laid off for a total period of at least one month during the follow-up. The confirmatory factor analysis indicated that the SOC scale measured one general second-order SOC factor consisting of three, first-order factors of meaningfulness, comprehensibility, and manageability. The results also indicated that the scale was best used as an 11-item measure. The factorial invariance of the scale across time and across the two employment groups was supported by the data. Unexpectedly, the stability of SOC did not differ between the two employment groups. However, those participants who had experienced unemployment and/or been laid off during the follow-up period had a weaker SOC at both measurement times than those who had been employed throughout the follow-up.     

Saudization (Localization) – A critical review

Abstract

This paper introduces the concept of Saudization and critically reviews its existing and potential impacts and consequences. It identifies that Saudization has positively contributed to reducing the overall percentage of foreign labor. However, there have been some difficulties, such as a decline in competitiveness among regional business companies with respect to a business friendly environment, and reduced direct foreign investment, which influenced the reduction of the tax on foreign investors. Saudization should place importance on skill development among Saudi nationals by strengthening educational and vocational training, and providing time-specific incentives, rather than relying only on a quota system. Saudization should be implemented more through market forces and incentives. Collecting comprehensive information on the nature and magnitude of Saudi unemployment could be a first step in developing appropriate Saudization policies. This paper suggests appropriate coordination and consultation between the government, the private sector and the public at large, so that any policies on Saudization become more easily acceptable and executable in both the public and private sector.