Evaluating a management and organization development effort in mental health agencies.

Although the use of management and organization development techniques in health and human service settings is increasing, there are few systematic studies of their effects. Those which do exist are problematic in many respects. An 18-month program incorporating both management and organization development is described along with the results of its evaluation, which were positive and well-utilized. A discussion of the methods employed, the problems encountered, and the outcomes obtained illustrates that these evaluation efforts are needed and can be useful to program evaluators involved in planned-change efforts.     

Experimental and contextual models of program evaluation

Evaluation research is one of the most rapidly evolving fields of applied behavioral science. As demand for program assessment has increased, the number of alternative evaluation approaches has also grown. As a result, everyday practitioners have often lacked sufficient guidelines for the choice of appropriate evaluation strategies.The present paper articulates an underlying epistemological distinction between (a) experimental evaluation models which simplify program realities in generalizable analyses of discrete causes and effects, and (b) contextual evaluation models which holistically examine particular program operations. These two evaluation approaches are directed at different purposes and are applicable to different program settings. A topology of program characteristics (breadth of goals, scope of treatment, specificity of results, and clarity of theory) is developed and linked to the appropriateness of experimental and contextual evaluation.     

中国航空自由化探索的机遇分析——基于后金融危机时代并购热潮的思考

随着经济全球化和区域一体化的不断推进,世界航空自由化成为中国航空产业发展的未来趋势。在梳理世界航空自由化内容形式及其发展效应的基础上,对后金融危机时代背景下国际航空并购热潮演进和中国航空联盟并购的探索进行了总结和对比。研究发现,后金融危机时代的重组并购热潮为中国航空进行自由化探索提供了良好条件,世界航空自由化和国际金融市场动荡的双重背景为中国民航企业走出去进行国际扩张带来了难得的市场机遇。为抓住这一有利时机,具有实力的中国民航企业应在思想观念、发展意识和实践探索等方面先行先试,借助多元化的海外并购拓展中长距离的国际航空市场,从而在世界航空自由化的推进过程中探索"飞出去"的跨越发展之路。     

论明清时期的酒包装

从文献、传世与考古出土实物及图像等相关史料看,明清时期酒包装容器在用材种类、造型形态、装饰及加工制作工艺等方面均有长足的发展。而造成酒包装发展变化的原因主要是商品生产的大量出现、社会文化的繁荣、造纸印刷技术的进步以及手工业生产制度的完善和酿酒行业的品牌出现等。     

翻译教师实践能力提升策略研究

随着翻译本科和翻译硕士的大量设立,翻译教师队伍日益壮大。许多英语语言文学教师变身为翻译教师,他们翻译实践少,实践能力薄弱,这直接影响到翻译教学质量。因此如何提升翻译实践能力已成为广大翻译教师的当务之急。本文从教育教学部门、翻译院系和翻译教师个人等三方入手,提出通过职称评审改革、教学管理配套政策支持和翻译教师个人努力等多个渠道来形成合力,全面提升翻译教师实践能力,提升翻译教学质量。     

Workload Process,Waiting Times,and Sojourn Times in a Discrete Time MMAP[K]/SM[K]/1/FCFS Queue

Abstract

In this paper, we study the total workload process and waiting times in a queueing system with multiple types of customers and a first-come-first-served service discipline. An M/G/1 type Markov chain, which is closely related to the total workload in the queueing system, is constructed. A method is developed for computing the steady state distribution of that Markov chain. Using that steady state distribution, the distributions of total workload, batch waiting times, and waiting times of individual types of customers are obtained. Compared to the GI/M/1 and QBD approaches for waiting times and sojourn times in discrete time queues, the dimension of the matrix blocks involved in the M/G/1 approach can be significantly smaller.     

A Markov regime‐switching model for crude‐oil markets: Comparison of composite likelihood and full likelihood

We use the two‐state Markov regime‐switching model to explain the behaviour of the WTI crude‐oil spot prices from January 1986 to February 2012. We investigated the use of methods based on the composite likelihood and the full likelihood. We found that the composite‐likelihood approach can better capture the general structural changes in world oil prices. The two‐state Markov regime‐switching model based on the composite‐likelihood approach closely depicts the cycles of the two postulated states: fall and rise. These two states persist for on average 8 and 15 months, which matches the observed cycles during the period. According to the fitted model, drops in oil prices are more volatile than rises. We believe that this information can be useful for financial officers working in related areas. The model based on the full‐likelihood approach was less satisfactory. We attribute its failure to the fact that the two‐state Markov regime‐switching model is too rigid and overly simplistic. In comparison, the composite likelihood requires only that the model correctly specifies the joint distribution of two adjacent price changes. Thus, model violations in other areas do not invalidate the results. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 41: 353–367; 2013 © 2013 Statistical Society of Canada     

Robust location estimation with missing data

In a missing data setting, we have a sample in which a vector of explanatory variables ${\bf x}_i$ is observed for every subject i, while scalar responses $y_i$ are missing by happenstance on some individuals. In this work we propose robust estimators of the distribution of the responses assuming missing at random (MAR) data, under a semiparametric regression model. Our approach allows the consistent estimation of any weakly continuous functional of the response's distribution. In particular, strongly consistent estimators of any continuous location functional, such as the median, L‐functionals and M‐functionals, are proposed. A robust fit for the regression model combined with the robust properties of the location functional gives rise to a robust recipe for estimating the location parameter. Robustness is quantified through the breakdown point of the proposed procedure. The asymptotic distribution of the location estimators is also derived. The proofs of the theorems are presented in Supplementary Material available online. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 41: 111–132; 2013 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada