基于非参数时变Copula模型的美国次贷危机传染分析

金融危机传染分析是国际金融领域中的重要课题,本文对Copula变点检测方法进行推广,采用时变非参数阿基米德Copula模型检验金融危机传染的存在性及其变化趋势,以时变尾部相依系数的大小来度量危机传染程度,并结合系数的变化趋势和时间段对金融危机传染效应进行分析.最后选择全球六个主要股票市场指数和S&P500指数进行危机传染实证研究,得出次贷危机对不同国家或地区的传染效应有所差别.     

Introduction to the Special Issue on Humanitarian Operations and Crisis Management

The Genesis of this Special Issue came from the Board of the POMS College on Humanitarian Operations and Crisis Management (HO&CM). It was seen as a necessary initiative to define the field and examine research opportunities. This Special Issue shows that humanitarian operations pose challenges for P/OM researchers and practitioners that differ markedly from those of conventional supply chains associated with profitable enterprises. On the basis of the eight articles in this Special Issue, we have described and demonstrated the unique characteristics of the POM/HO&CM interaction. We have also identified those attributes that tend to overlap with conventional aspects of POM. In addition to wanting to be cost effective, the issue of equity fairness is pervasive in humanitarian operations, and so is the need to always base considerations on “last‐mile logistics,” that is, getting aid to those in most need. Research is essential to determine how to train researchers to scout out and map the territory of the real problems. One of the most vexing problems is the lack of robust data in the humanitarian domain which is as richly varied as the types of disasters that can occur.     

企业财务危机预警双基点距离比值法

本文介绍了国内外主要企业财务危机预警模型,对模型的空间几何意义进行解释。提出了企业财务危机预警双基点距离比值模型,该模型采用非线性方法对危机企业与非危机企业的财务指标集合进行分割。用112例样本实证,预警识别率达到92.8%。     

商品金融化背景下大宗商品指数收益机制转换

基于虚拟变量Markov机制转换模型,选取具有代表性的国际商品指数-标普高盛商品指数(S&P GSCI)及道琼斯大宗商品指数(DJCI)为研究对象,探寻大宗商品指数收益率机制转换出现的规律与诱因.实证结果表明:修正后的模型能较好地反映大宗商品指数收益率波动性呈现出的“中-高-中高-低-中”的阶段性变化,在阶段变换的拐点处商品指数呈现出具有转折意义的“V”形走势;金融危机前后的流动性冲击改变机制转化的概率.研究结果可以为预测大宗商品市场走势及阶段性转折点提供参考.     

群体性突发事件中政府机会主义行为的演化博弈分析

群体性突发事件成为影响当前我国社会稳定和实现现代化平稳过渡的重要因素,但是研究主要是基于实践经验的概述和总结分析上,缺少合适的理论分析工具揭示群体性突发事件的演化规律和发展特征。本文尝试运用演化博弈理论建立了地方政府部门与社会弱势群体之间的演化博弈模型,分析了地方政府部门机会主义行为导致的群体性突发事件呈现扩大化的趋势。研究结果表明:(1)如果社会弱势群体的情绪和行动尚未激化,至多停留在集体上访或集会等体制内平和的诉求手段,机会主义的地方政府将采取高压强硬策略;此时博弈均衡结果是(妥协或平和诉求,强硬);(2)一旦弱势群体中出现少数分子采取了"打砸抢"等暴力抗争的行动,由于机会主义政府转而做出较大让步,从而诱导其他弱势成员相继采取暴力抗争行动,事态反而进一步呈现扩大趋势。因此,群体性突发事件处置过程中,地方政府的机会主义行为不仅延误事件处置的最佳时机,而且直接导致了事态的扩大化。最后结合数值分析和瓮安事件案例,剖析了地方政府部门采取的机会主义应急处置措施,以及本文理论模型的适用范围。     

Culture and Crisis Communication: Nestle India's Maggi Noodles Case

Extant theoretical paradigms in the field of crisis communication are organization-centric and do not adequately recognize the role of culture. The purpose of this essay is to analyze a crisis faced by Nestle India using the framework of global public relations which defines culture broadly to include political, economic, media, societal, and activist cultures. Our analysis revealed that a multinational corporation with over a century of presence in the country struggled to align itself to the complexities of the cultures of the host country. In the case of Nestle India, whereas environmental variables such as political economy and Westernization of urban India boosted the growth of its instant noodles, the multinational also struggled to cope with the rise of media corporatization, activist pressure and the vagaries of regulatory enforcement not to speak of cultural nationalism. It is evident that Nestlé's crisis response was governed more by its traditional corporate culture than by an ability to keep pace with the changing demands of its environment, leading to the amplification of an issue into a crisis. The study concludes that multinationals that ignore culture will be forced to pay a heavy price both in terms of reputation and the bottom line.     

论马克思的货币拜物教理论——以“华尔街的贪婪”为例

马克思的货币拜物教理论是反思当下金融危机的独特视角。货币拜物教是资本主义社会的总体判断逻辑。货币的本真意义被反向,货币符号被主体化,货币手段被目的化。货币幻象是货币拜物教的极致状态,是货币价值的心理体验和想象。华尔街的贪婪不过是货币拜物教的当下形态,表现为高杠杆率如影随形、金融评级机构不知知所进退、天价的薪酬和奖金以及权力与金钱孽生的贪婪。     

生计资本对农民工返乡自雇就业的影响

采用"2009年金融危机对农村流动人口家庭生计冲击调查"数据,基于可持续生计框架,分析了五种生计资本对农民工返乡自雇就业的影响。研究发现:人力资本中,具有初中文化程度者、在打工期间受过职业培训者更可能返乡自雇就业;社会资本中,家人担任乡、村干部的农民工更可能自雇就业;物质资本中,拥有生产型设备越多,更可能自雇就业;金融资本中,从亲戚朋友处借钱者更可能自雇就业。上述结论对于农民工返乡就业的政策涵义也进行了讨论。     

社会转型期共产主义的信仰危机及其重建

马克思主义的信仰在现实中的发展并不是直线式的,而是在各种危机和困境中呈螺旋式曲折向前发展,其往往遵循＂现状——危机——新生……＂的发展模式。当前,马克思主义所表现出来的信仰危机实质是一些错误的实践所导致的一种危机。这也昭示了精神层面危机的解决,不仅仅要加强理论层面的宣传教育,更重要的是在实践上对现实生活中各种社会矛盾和问题的有效解决,即坚持、发展并成功的践行马克思主义;加强党的建设,夯实党的群众基础;增强马克思主义信仰宣传的感染力,引起广大民众的情感共鸣;坚持马克思主义信仰与其他信仰间张力平衡的原则,正确处理好＂一元＂与＂多元＂之间的关系。