Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management of Lahar Flow Threat

The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines is considered one of the most violent and destructive volcanic activities in the 20th century. Lahar is the Indonesian term for volcanic ash, and lahar flows resulting from the massive amount of volcanic materials deposited on the mountain's slope posed continued post-eruption threats to the surrounding areas, destroying lives, homes, agricultural products, and infrastructures. Risks of lahar flows were identified immediately after the eruption, with scientific data provided by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology, the U.S. Geological Survey, and other research institutions. However, competing political, economic, and social agendas subordinated the importance of scientific information to policy making. Using systemic risk analysis and management, this article addresses the issues of multiple objectives and the effective integration of scientific techniques into the decision-making process. It provides a modeling framework for identifying, prioritizing, and evaluating policies for managing risk. The major considerations are: (1) applying a holistic approach to risk analysis through hierarchical holographic modeling, (2) applying statistical methods to gain insight into the problem of uncertainty in risk assessment, (3) using multiobjective trade-off analysis to address the issue of multiple decisionmakers and stakeholders in the decision-making process, (4) using the conditional expected value of extreme events to complement and supplement the expected value in quantifying risk, and (5) assessing the impacts of multistage decisions. Numerical examples based on ex post data are formulated to illustrate applications to various problems. The resulting framework from this study can serve as a general baseline model for assessing and managing risks of natural disasters, which the Philippines' lead agency-the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC)-and other related organizations can use for their decision-making processes.     

"五四"新文学运动前二十年文学理论批评文体的演进

文学理论批评文体是文学理论批评形式特征的总和。中国古代文论文体有其鲜明的特色 ,但也有明显的局限性。至近代 ,尤其是五四新文学运动前二十年 ,文学理论批评文体发生了巨大的变化。其变革的方向 ,总的来说是向现代文学理论批评文体演进。具体来看 ,体式向多样化、大容量发展 ;篇章结构趋向完整精致 ;语言文字趋向通俗浅显 ;对西方文体从模仿趋向融会贯通 ;文体的外在形式向规范化发展     

关于社会福利制度的深层次思考

效率和公平是社会福利的两大准则 ,整个人类历史可以说就是一个不断追求效率和公平的历史 ,而其中针对社会弱势群体进行的收入和服务保障更是一个超社会形态的课题 ,是一个关乎人类社会福利的重要问题。针对中国的实际情况 ,本文中所讨论的社会福利制度被限定在“剩余福利模式”上。在对中外社会福利制度的起源及其理论发展进行考察的基础上 ,作者指出 :社会福利的提供应是制度化的政府职责 ,它的实施不仅能有效地保护社会弱势群体 ,还有利于全社会秩序的稳定和经济增长目标的实现 ;在中国目前财政收入相对不足的情况下 ,政府应充分利用社会资源、调动社会力量、推进立法、加紧培育行业组织和非赢利社会组织 ,以达到完善社会福利制度、有效保护社会弱势群体之目的。     

曲线箱梁桥实用设计方法的研究

曲线箱梁桥目前还缺乏比较实用的设计方法．本文对曲线箱梁桥的现有设计方法作了研究，并推荐一种实用设计方法：采用空间梁单元，每个节点取六个自由度；等效梁格的模拟考虑了横向梁格附近有无横隔梁的情况．结果证明，这是一种简便、较精确的设计方法．     

The Determinants of Trust and Credibility in Environmental Risk Communication: An Empirical Study

This study examines a key component of environmental risk communication; trust and credibility. The study was conducted in two parts. In the first part, six hypotheses regarding the perceptions and determinants of trust and credibility were tested against survey data. The hypotheses were supported by the data. The most important hypothesis was that perceptions of trust and credibility are dependent on three factors: perceptions of knowledge and expertise; perceptions of openness and honesty; and perceptions of concern and care. In the second part, models were constructed with perceptions of trust and credibility as the dependent variable. The goal was to examine the data for findings with direct policy implications. One such finding was that defying a negative stereotype is key to improving perceptions of trust and credibility.     

Industry and the environment: a case study of cleaner technologies in selected European countries

The aim of this case study is to discuss the role of technology in addressing environmental problems. The paper tries to scratch beneath the surface of the increasingly frequent ‘quick-fix’ solutions to the present environmental problems, based on such beguiling catchwords as Cleaner Technologies, Best Available Technologies, and Best Available Technologies Not Exceeding Excessive Costs, etc., in an attempt to discover whether there is any substance in them, or whether they are just full of hot air. Recent data from case studies performed by the author in Germany and Finland as well as a postal questionnaire in Denmark are presented. The paper analyses and discusses the roles and responsibilities of designers, industrialists, and government policy-makers. It is argued that existing regulatory regimes, supranational industrial structures, and market mechanisms do not favour the development of cleaner technologies, nor do they promote a reduction in consumption patterns. Evidence from ongoing empirical research in Northwest Europe suggests that industry is far from developing and/or implementing cleaner technologies. The paper closes with a discussion of some of the policy implications involved and some examples of urgently needed further research.     

当代生活与艺术之死:第二、第三和第一世界

当今所谓的艺术,主要是受20世纪七八十年代以来发展并在全球范围内扩散的美国式“艺术”观念所支配,而再也不受德语的“艺术”或法语的“美的艺术”体系所支配。自从现代主义诞生以来,艺术的历史使命的减弱或者消失已经成为事实,但从全球范围而言,“艺术的终结”这一论断仍有些夸大其词。因为在第一世界的艺术死亡之后(这里存在更多的是文化),第二和第三世界的艺术还生长着。艺术从根本上说还不是一个媒介事件和现象,而是一个同我们每个人相关的东西——不管它是不是商品。     

制造企业服务业务扩展及其认知因素研究

制造企业的竞争越来越激烈,几乎所有的企业都要面对快速反应多变市场和应对价格压力的要求,面对越来越小的产品利润空间和越来越复杂的客户需求,本文从对工业服务管理文献分析和制造企业的调查研究入手,揭示了制造企业从纯粹的产品生产者向客户支持方案提供者发展的转移趋势.通过对瑞士和德国30多家机器和设备制造企业进行的调查研究,说明了服务业务对制造企业在开发财务、营销和战略机会上的重要作用,并对转移过程中服务业务的扩展过程进行了总结.结合具体企业实践,本文对制约制造企业扩展服务业务中在管理动机上的认知因素进行了分析和研究.结合中国加入WTO后,中国制造企业将全面融入国际竞争的背景,本文期望对中国制造企业的发展和竞争地位的提高提供理论和实践上的指导.     

信息不完全确定的区域产品模糊区间聚类方法

区域产品分类与选择是区域经济发展中最重要和最基础的工作.在产品选择与分类时,需要确定指标权系数和分类阈值等参数,这在实际应用中是比较困难的.针对这种情况,提出了一种信息不完全确定的区域产品模糊区间聚类方法.该方法构建了指标权系数信息不完全确定的最优模糊区间聚类模型,利用遗传算法和改进的FCM算法联合求解所得优化模型,得到指标权系数、最优聚类中心和最优划分,进而确定各产品所属类别.最后将该方法应用于某区域的产品分类和主导产品的确定中,实例计算说明该方法的可行性和有效性.     

现代信用风险度量模型的实证比较与适用性分析

本文通过实证比较分析发现,现代信用风险度量模型对银行贷款的违约率、贷款损失和损失率的预测结果的差异性较大;但信用监测模型和信用风险附加法所预测的经济资本配置比例不仅符合巴塞尔协议对银行贷款经济资本的要求,也略大于实际应该配置的比例,实证表明了它们对度量我国商业银行贷款组合的信用风险具有较好的适用性.此外,本文也充分验证了借款人信用等级的不同,银行贷款经济资本配置的比例会有显著性的差异.