关系利益在零售业忠诚计划和顾客忠诚中的中介效应研究

以零售业为背景,分析了忠诚计划对顾客忠诚的影响,并从顾客的角度引入关系利益这一中介变量;运用结构方程模型验证了忠诚计划不仅对行为忠诚具有直接的正向影响,还能够通过增加顾客从零售商与顾客的关系中获得的信任利益、社会利益和特殊待遇利益,有效提升顾客的行为忠诚和情感忠诚。实证研究表明,信任利益在提升顾客忠诚方面的作用最为显著,社会利益次之。     

基于预算限制和客户挽留价值最大化的电信客户流失挽留研究

在分析电信行业中挽留激励效应、自然流失效应和口碑传播效应对客户保持率的动力学机理的基础上,得到客户保持率在客户挽留周期中的演进路径;接着提出了使用挽留激励系数、自然衰减系数和口碑影响系数来具体描述这3种效应的作用力。然后基于客户保持率的演进路径推导出了客户挽留周期模型和客户挽留价值模型。最后建立了2种不同类型的客户挽留模型:基于挽留激励效应建立了单个客户挽留费用模型,并推导出了单个客户挽留费用的有效范围、挽留激励的高效率区域和低效率区域;基于定义的挽留收益函数和挽留边际收益函数建立了一对一客户挽留策略模型,并推导出了在挽留预算限制条件下的客户挽留顺序选择原则。实验结果表明,所提出的电信客户挽留方法是可行且有效的。     

Predictive Genetic Testing for Alzheimer''s Disease: Impact upon Risk Perception

The aim of this study was to determine the impact on risk perceptions of disclosing genetic test results used to estimate the risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Adult children (n = 149) of people with AD were randomized to one of two groups--Intervention group: lifetime risk estimates of AD based on age, gender, family history, and Apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype; Control group: lifetime risk estimates of AD based on the same risk factors excluding APOE genotype. Perceptions of personal risk (PPR) for AD were assessed six weeks after risk assessments. PPR were correlated with actual lifetime risk estimates (r = 0.501; p < 0.0001). After controlling for lifetime risks communicated to participants, age, and number of affected relatives, PPR scores among those with an epsilon4-positive test result (the test result associated with increased AD susceptibility) (adjusted mean: 3.4 (SD: 0.7)) were not different from the PPR scores in the Control group (adjusted mean: 3.4 (SD: 0.7) (F1,91= 1.98; p = 0.162). Again, controlling for lifetime risk estimates, age, and number of affected relatives, the PPR score of those receiving an epsilon4-negative test result was significantly lower (adjusted mean: 3.1 (SD: 0.8)) than those in the Control group (adjusted mean: 3.4 (SD: 0.7) (F1,95 = 6.23; p = 0.014). Perceptions of risk of developing AD are influenced by genetic test disclosure in those receiving epsilon4-negative, but not those receiving epsilon4-positive test results. Despite the reduced perceptions of risk in the former group, there was no evidence of false reassurance (i.e., perceiving risks as equal to or lower than population risks of AD), although this possibility should be assessed in other testing contexts.     

风险感知视角下邻避冲突中公众行为演化及化解策略——以浙江余杭垃圾焚烧项目为例

近几年中国公众对有害邻避设施（垃圾焚烧、化工厂等）带来环境风险的强烈感知，使得邻避类群体性事件高发频发。风险感知视角下浙江余杭垃圾焚烧项目先后经历了强烈的风险感知、坚决反对—风险感知的下降、尝试了解—态度转变、迎臂接纳三个阶段，最终成功破题原址建设。风险感知视角下邻避项目中公众的行为演化机理遵循的逻辑为：项目本身的实体风险—风险感知的放大—危机产生—介入因素转变—风险感知降低—危机解除。要摆脱邻避项目陷入应急处理的窠臼，应构建嵌入公众风险感知的常态化决策程序，其内核为公众风险感知的嵌入，中间为到位的风险沟通、科学的技术评估与合理的利益补偿三环相扣的闭环环节，协商民主的理念则贯穿整个过程。     

Communicating Asset Risk: How Name Recognition and the Format of Historic Volatility Information Affect Risk Perception and Investment Decisions

An experiment examined how the type and presentation format of information about investment options affected investors' expectations about asset risk, returns, and volatility and how these expectations related to asset choice. Respondents were provided with the names of 16 domestic and foreign investment options, with 10-year historical return information for these options, or with both. Historical returns were presented either as a bar graph of returns per year or as a continuous density distribution. Provision of asset names allowed for the investigation of the mechanisms underlying the home bias in investment choice and other asset familiarity effects. Respondents provided their expectations of future returns, volatility, and expected risk, and indicated the options they would choose to invest in. Expected returns closely resembled historical expected values. Risk and volatility perceptions both varied significantly as a function of the type and format of information, but in different ways. Expected returns and perceived risk, not predicted volatility, predicted portfolio decisions.     

丑的美学意义

丑在人类审美活动中具有重要的意义,它既是客观存在的一种社会现象,更是艺术创造、艺术鉴赏中的重要内容,它衬托美、突出美。对丑的表现与鉴赏,能使审美主体在体会感性世界的丰富与多彩中,领悟历史与人生的多层次意蕴,提升审美感受。     

IDENTIFYING TREATMENT EFFECTS IN MULTI-CHANNEL MEASUREMENTS IN ELECTROENCEPHALOGRAPHIC STUDIES: MULTIVARIATE PERMUTATION TESTS AND MULTIPLE COMPARISONS

A versatile procedure is described comprising an application of statistical techniques to the analysis of the large, multi‐dimensional data arrays produced by electroencephalographic (EEG) measurements of human brain function. Previous analytical methods have been unable to identify objectively the precise times at which statistically significant experimental effects occur, owing to the large number of variables (electrodes) and small number of subjects, or have been restricted to two‐treatment experimental designs. Many time‐points are sampled in each experimental trial, making adjustment for multiple comparisons mandatory. Given the typically large number of comparisons and the clear dependence structure among time‐points, simple Bonferroni‐type adjustments are far too conservative. A three‐step approach is proposed: (i) summing univariate statistics across variables; (ii) using permutation tests for treatment effects at each time‐point; and (iii) adjusting for multiple comparisons using permutation distributions to control family‐wise error across the whole set of time‐points. Our approach provides an exact test of the individual hypotheses while asymptotically controlling family‐wise error in the strong sense, and can provide tests of interaction and main effects in factorial designs. An application to two experimental data sets from EEG studies is described, but the approach has application to the analysis of spatio‐temporal multivariate data gathered in many other contexts.     

An emotion-based model of risk perception and stigma susceptibility: cognitive appraisals of emotion, affective reactivity, worldviews, and risk perceptions in the generation of technological stigma.

A study (N=198) was conducted to examine hypotheses derived from an emotion-based model of stigma responses to radiation sources. A model of stigma susceptibility is proposed in which affective reactions and cognitive worldviews activate predispositions to appraise and experience events in systematic ways that result in the generation of negative emotion, risk perceptions, and stigma responses. Results of structural equation modeling supported the hypotheses. Radiation sources that scored higher on a measure of stigma were included in the analyses (i.e., nuclear power plants, radioactive waste from nuclear power plants, radiation from nuclear weapons testing). Individual differences in negative reactivity and worldviews were associated with the strength of emotional appraisals that were associated, in turn, with negative emotion toward stigmatized radiation sources. As hypothesized, the model fit better with perceived risk as a function of negative emotion rather than vice versa. Finally, a measure of stigma was associated with negative emotion and, to a lesser extent, with risk perceptions. Risk communication about stigmatized objects may benefit from a more complete understanding of how affective and emotional reactions are constructed and the routes through which they affect responses and behaviors.     

美国选民的相对理性

运用定量分析的方法对美国选民在总统选举中的政治认知进行实证分析,发现美国选民在总统选举年份比在中期选举年份更有可能认识到两个主要政党之间的差异。这一发现为安格斯.坎伯尔(A ngus C am pbe ll)所发现的政治认知起落现象提供了认知模式。每当在总统府中发生党派更替时,大多数美国选举人都会预感到总统选举中势均力敌的情况。美国选民的政治认知首先是由信息吸收和处理所决定的,党派性是第二位的因素。这一发现确认了心理学的信息处理看法,扩展了安东尼.道恩斯(A n thony D ow ns)的理性选择理论和V.O.基关于留意公众和粗心公众的分类。