试述马克思主义大众化传播应坚持的四个基本原则

马克思主义大众化传播是一个极其复杂、艰巨的社会系统工程。学术界对于马克思主义大众化传播应该坚持什么样的原则和方法也是众说纷纭。从当代世界和中国现实情况、信息传播技术飞速发展的时代背景,以及马克思主义理论创新发展的内在规律出发,马克思主义大众化传播应坚持指导思想一元和文化价值多元的统一、理论逻辑和生活逻辑的统一、科学性与通俗性的统一、传承性和开放性的统一等四个基本原则。     

Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments and Embracing Ongoing Challenges

As part of the celebration of the 40th anniversary of the Society for Risk Analysis and Risk Analysis: An International Journal, this essay reviews the 10 most important accomplishments of risk analysis from 1980 to 2010, outlines major accomplishments in three major categories from 2011 to 2019, discusses how editors circulate authors’ accomplishments, and proposes 10 major risk-related challenges for 2020–2030. Authors conclude that the next decade will severely test the field of risk analysis.     

Field of study variation throughout the college pipeline and its effect on the earnings gap: Differences between ethnic and immigrant groups in Israel

This study demonstrates the analytical leverage gained from considering the entire college pipeline—including the application, admission and graduation stages—in examining the economic position of various groups upon labor market entry. The findings, based on data from three elite universities in Israel, reveal that the process that shapes economic inequality between different ethnic and immigrant groups is not necessarily cumulative. Field of study stratification does not expand systematically from stage to stage and the position of groups on the field of study hierarchy at each stage is not entirely explained by academic preparation. Differential selection and attrition processes, as well as ambition and aspirations, also shape the position of ethnic groups in the earnings hierarchy and generate a non-cumulative pattern. These findings suggest that a cross-sectional assessment of field of study inequality at the graduation stage can generate misleading conclusions about group-based economic inequality among workers with a bachelor’s degree.     

行业系统性风险的动态特征及其影响因素

现代经济主体间网络关联性越来越强,风险很容易在不同行业间扩散,因此有效识别并分析系统性风险是防范金融危机的关键步骤。基于条件风险价值(CoVaR)和边际期望损失(MES)两个指标,对巨潮行业指数系统性风险的静态和动态特征进行了研究。结果发现,各行业间系统性风险的相关性较强,动态特征显示2009年年初和2016年3月为系统性风险的两个峰值;从分行业来看,材料行业的系统性风险最高,而消费和医药行业的系统性风险最低。采用动态面板模型分析影响行业系统性风险的市场面因素发现,短期涨幅较高、长期涨幅较低及流动性较充分的行业,其系统性风险往往更低。因此,应加强对系统性风险较高行业的监管力度,建立好金融防火墙,防止外部金融风险的过度传染;同时应加强对各行业的实时监控,尤其是关注短期暴涨暴跌及流动性充分与否的监控。     

历史变局、国家兴衰与发展之路——三次千年变局叠加下的中国特色社会主义发展道路

每当先进的发展制度开始取代落后的发展制度时，整个世界格局就会进入重大的转换阶段。在中国五千年的发展历史中，有两次重大的历史变局完全改变了中国历史发展轨迹并深远地影响了当前中国的发展模式。新时代下的中国作为前两次历史变局影响的客体，曾经既是先进发展制度取代落后发展制度的受益者，也经历过作为落后发展制度主体而被先进发展制度冲击的过程。目前世界正处于第三次先进发展制度与落后发展制度交替的历史变局阶段，作为第三次重大历史变局的主体，在三次千年历史变局叠加的背景下，能否有效地认识、适应并改造利用前两次历史变局的经验与教训，构建系统性、科学性、可行性、领先性的中国特色社会主义制度，将决定中国在本次历史变局中能否顺利成为先进发展制度的主体从而实现民族复兴。     

论民族自治地方政府机构改革的深化——基于新中国成立初期探索的思考

民族自治地方政府在新一轮机构改革中进行了历史性变革和系统性重塑，然而顶层设计与分层对接机制优化、机构设置细化与整合、运转协同和效能提升仍未完全到位。回溯机构改革史，中华人民共和国成立初期作为政府顶层设计和系统性构建阶段，是民族自治地方政府机构建设最富成效的历史时期之一。这一时期的民族自治地方政府机构建设强调权能配置和人员构成的民族性，逐步差异化设置机构、探索单一制下政府机构平衡设置等历史经验，可以为进一步深化政府机构改革提供有益借鉴。在新的历史起点上深化民族自治地方政府机构改革应以新时代中国特色社会主义思想为引领，合理汲取历史养分，进一步深化理论研究，完善法制体系，明晰特殊性职权和民族性职能，健全顶层设计与分层对接机制，创新改革模式，强化地方参与性，切实破解改革难题，推动政府自身建设持续走向深入。     

浙江沿海明清卫所驻地方言的声母比较

卫所制度是明清时期重要的军政制度。以浙江沿海明清卫所驻地方言为考察对象，从北到南选取了最有代表性的16个方言点，通过共时和历时的比较，分析和总结浙江沿海明清卫所驻地方言声母在数量和古今分合上的特点。     

A Probabilistic Framework for Risk Analysis of Widespread Flood Events: A Proof‐of‐Concept Study

This article presents a flood risk analysis model that considers the spatially heterogeneous nature of flood events. The basic concept of this approach is to generate a large sample of flood events that can be regarded as temporal extrapolation of flood events. These are combined with cumulative flood impact indicators, such as building damages, to finally derive time series of damages for risk estimation. Therefore, a multivariate modeling procedure that is able to take into account the spatial characteristics of flooding, the regionalization method top‐kriging, and three different impact indicators are combined in a model chain. Eventually, the expected annual flood impact (e.g., expected annual damages) and the flood impact associated with a low probability of occurrence are determined for a study area. The risk model has the potential to augment the understanding of flood risk in a region and thereby contribute to enhanced risk management of, for example, risk analysts and policymakers or insurance companies. The modeling framework was successfully applied in a proof‐of‐concept exercise in Vorarlberg (Austria). The results of the case study show that risk analysis has to be based on spatially heterogeneous flood events in order to estimate flood risk adequately.     

Cross‐Sectional Psychological and Demographic Associations of Zika Knowledge and Conspiracy Beliefs Before and After Local Zika Transmission

Perceptions of infectious diseases are important predictors of whether people engage in disease‐specific preventive behaviors. Having accurate beliefs about a given infectious disease has been found to be a necessary condition for engaging in appropriate preventive behaviors during an infectious disease outbreak, while endorsing conspiracy beliefs can inhibit preventive behaviors. Despite their seemingly opposing natures, knowledge and conspiracy beliefs may share some of the same psychological motivations, including a relationship with perceived risk and self‐efficacy (i.e., control). The 2015–2016 Zika epidemic provided an opportunity to explore this. The current research provides some exploratory tests of this topic derived from two studies with similar measures, but different primary outcomes: one study that included knowledge of Zika as a key outcome and one that included conspiracy beliefs about Zika as a key outcome. Both studies involved cross‐sectional data collections that occurred during the same two periods of the Zika outbreak: one data collection prior to the first cases of local Zika transmission in the United States (March–May 2016) and one just after the first cases of local transmission (July–August). Using ordinal logistic and linear regression analyses of data from two time points in both studies, the authors show an increase in relationship strength between greater perceived risk and self‐efficacy with both increased knowledge and increased conspiracy beliefs after local Zika transmission in the United States. Although these results highlight that similar psychological motivations may lead to Zika knowledge and conspiracy beliefs, there was a divergence in demographic association.     

Scientific consensus,the law,and same sex parenting outcomes

While the US Supreme Court was considering two related cases involving the constitutionality of same-sex marriage, one major question informing that decision was whether scientific research had achieved consensus regarding how children of same-sex couples fare. Determining the extent of consensus has become a key aspect of how social science evidence and testimony is accepted by the courts. Here, we show how a method of analyzing temporal patterns in citation networks can be used to assess the state of social scientific literature as a means to inform just such a question. Patterns of clustering within these citation networks reveal whether and when consensus arises within a scientific field. We find that the literature on outcomes for children of same-sex parents is marked by scientific consensus that they experience “no differences” compared to children from other parental configurations.