多因素行为证券组合投资决策方法

在现有的行为证券组合理论中,所建立的行为证券组合投资决策模型仅具有理论价值,无法应用于组合投资管理实践;另外其求解算法过于复杂,以至于无法解决大规模行为组合投资决策问题。考虑到因素模型能将各种证券的收益和固定的几个因素的变化联系起来,引入了因素模型对已有的行为证券组合投资决策模型进行了简化,建立了多因素行为证券组合投资决策模型,给出了其算法。     

Nuclear Waste Management under Approaching Disaster: A Comparison of Decommissioning Strategies for the German Repository Asse II

This article compares different strategies for handling low‐ and medium‐level nuclear waste buried in a retired potassium mine in Germany (Asse II) that faces significant risk of uncontrollable brine intrusion and, hence, long‐term groundwater contamination. We survey the policy process that has resulted in the identification of three possible so‐called decommissioning options: complete backfilling, relocation of the waste to deeper levels in the mine, and retrieval. The selection of a decommissioning strategy must compare expected investment costs with expected social damage costs (economic, environmental, and health damage costs) caused by flooding and subsequent groundwater contamination. We apply a cost minimization approach that accounts for the uncertainty regarding the stability of the rock formation and the risk of an uncontrollable brine intrusion. Since economic and health impacts stretch out into the far future, we examine the impact of different discounting methods and rates. Due to parameter uncertainty, we conduct a sensitivity analysis concerning key assumptions. We find that retrieval, the currently preferred option by policymakers, has the lowest expected social damage costs for low discount rates. However, this advantage is overcompensated by higher expected investment costs. Considering all costs, backfilling is the best option for all discounting scenarios considered.     

Sizing Up a Superstorm: Exploring the Role of Recalled Experience and Attribution of Responsibility in Judgments of Future Hurricane Risk

Research suggests that hurricane‐related risk perception is a critical predictor of behavioral response, such as evacuation. Less is known, however, about the precursors of these subjective risk judgments, especially when time has elapsed from a focal event. Drawing broadly from the risk communication, social psychology, and natural hazards literature, and specifically from concepts adapted from the risk information seeking and processing model and the protective action decision model, we examine how individuals’ distant recollections, including attribution of responsibility for the effects of a storm, attitude toward relevant information, and past hurricane experience, relate to risk judgment for a future, similar event. The present study reports on a survey involving U.S. residents in Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York (n = 619) impacted by Hurricane Sandy. While some results confirm past findings, such as that hurricane experience increases risk judgment, others suggest additional complexity, such as how various types of experience (e.g., having evacuated vs. having experienced losses) may heighten or attenuate individual‐level judgments of responsibility. We suggest avenues for future research, as well as implications for federal agencies involved in severe weather/natural hazard forecasting and communication with public audiences.     

Application of a novel PROMETHEE-based method for construction of a group compromise ranking to prioritization of green suppliers in food supply chain

The food sector has a prodigious focus and is constantly gaining in importance in today’s global economic marketplace. Due to an increasing global population, society faces a greater challenge for sustainable food production, quality, distribution, and food safety in the food supply chain. Adopting green supply chain management (GSCM) elements is essential for utilizing the food supply chain in an environmentally benign way. As a solution to the above challenge, the economic and green characteristics for supplier selection in green purchasing are studied in this paper. For an organization, the evaluation and selection of the green supplier is a vital issue due to several tangible and intangible criteria involved. Accordingly, we apply multiple criteria decision aiding techniques.We propose a hybrid approach that combines the revised Simos procedure, PROMETHEE methods, algorithms for constructing a group compromise ranking, and robustness analysis. At first, the revised Simos procedure is used to derive the criteria weights. Next, the PROMETHEE method is applied to rank the suppliers according to each Decision Maker׳s (DM׳s) preferences. Then, the compromise ranking is constructed to minimize the distance of the individual׳s rankings from the solution adopted by the whole group. For this purpose, we introduce and apply some original procedures based on Binary Linear Programming. Finally, the results are validated against the outcomes of robustness analysis. The applicability and efficiency of the proposed approach is endorsed with a case study in an Indian food industry.     

Terrorism Risk Assessment,Recollection Bias,and Public Support for Counterterrorism Policy and Spending

Recollection bias (RB) refers to the phenomenon whereby after an adverse event people report that their risk assessment about a similar future event is presently no higher than their recollection of their pre‐event risk assessment. While previous research has outlined this theoretical construct and generated important empirical findings, there were some limitations. We design and employ a new national representative survey to address these limitations in this study. We examine the existence and persistence of RB among the general public in the context of a number of domestic and international terrorist attacks. We further examine the socioeconomic and political base of RB and the influences of RB on a wide range of citizens’ counterterrorism policy preferences. Our data analyses reveal strong evidence showing the occurrence of RB and its persistence across various forms of terrorism risk. With regard to the socioeconomic and political base, we find that females, older people, political conservatives, and Republicans are less likely to be subject to RB. For the effects of RB on public counterterrorism policy preferences, our analyses demonstrate that this bias significantly dampens public support for a wide range of preventive policy measures and government anti‐terrorism spending. Overall, our study, based on a national representative sample and an extended survey design, provides robust evidence of RB in terrorism risk assessment, and adds further evidence to support the idea that RB is likely a generalizable phenomenon. Implications and suggestions for future research are discussed in the conclusion.     

公平偏好对横纵向供应链定价及其绩效的影响

本文分别在纵向供应链与横向供应链中,研究了供应链成员具有公平偏好时的定价决策及其绩效表现。研究结果表明：在纵向供应链中,供应商或零售商具有公平偏好并进行Stackelberg博弈,批发价格契约能够满足供应商或零售商的公平偏好,此时整个供应链的利润最优,效率最高;在横向供应链中,处于相同供应链层级的制造商具有公平偏好并进行Cournot博弈,批发价格契约不能满足其公平偏好,但整个供应链的利润与绩效显著高于完全理性时的供应链利润与绩效。最后进行算例分析,并给出一些管理意义。     

Behavioral Modeling of Adversaries with Multiple Objectives in Counterterrorism

Attacker/defender models have primarily assumed that each decisionmaker optimizes the cost of the damage inflicted and its economic repercussions from their own perspective. Two streams of recent research have sought to extend such models. One stream suggests that it is more realistic to consider attackers with multiple objectives, but this research has not included the adaption of the terrorist with multiple objectives to defender actions. The other stream builds off experimental studies that show that decisionmakers deviate from optimal rational behavior. In this article, we extend attacker/defender models to incorporate multiple objectives that a terrorist might consider in planning an attack. This includes the tradeoffs that a terrorist might consider and their adaption to defender actions. However, we must also consider experimental evidence of deviations from the rationality assumed in the commonly used expected utility model in determining such adaption. Thus, we model the attacker's behavior using multiattribute prospect theory to account for the attacker's multiple objectives and deviations from rationality. We evaluate our approach by considering an attacker with multiple objectives who wishes to smuggle radioactive material into the United States and a defender who has the option to implement a screening process to hinder the attacker. We discuss the problems with implementing such an approach, but argue that research in this area must continue to avoid misrepresenting terrorist behavior in determining optimal defensive actions.     

Effect of Perceived Crisis Response on Consumers' Behavioral Intentions During a Company Scandal – An Intercultural Perspective

In the context of a multi-national company scandal, namely Volkswagen's Dieselgate, we examine the effect of customers' perception of organizational crisis response on their revenge and avoidance intentions in different cultural settings. Using data collected in the US and in Germany, we are able to show that the perception of appropriate crisis response reduces customers' revenge as well as avoidance intentions. However, due to the domestic bias of German respondents, the mechanism linking perception of the organization's crisis response to the respective outcomes differs between Germany and the US. Our results demonstrate for the first time that domestic bias is not always associated with being an amplifier of positive factors; rather, in the context of an organizational scandal, it dampens the effects of organizational crisis response.     

重大行政决策的集体讨论决定制度研究

重大行政决策集体讨论决定制度是指对于重大行政问题,必须充分讨论,集体决定,坚决反对个人说了算或少数人专断。重大行政决策是否科学化、民主化,直接影响到政府行政管理活动的效能。重大行政决策集体讨论决定是民主集中制的直接体现,能够避免在重大行政问题决策上的失误。通过分析和研究重大行政决策集体讨论决定制度的发展现状及其运行的规则和程序,发现中国重大行政决策缺乏统一的集体讨论决定程序,行政机关缺乏民主决策意识,社会公众缺乏民主参政意识及行政决策监督滞后等一系列局限性,指出惟有建立统一高效的重大行政决策集体讨论决定程序、提高行政机关的民主决策意识、提高社会公众的民主参政意识和加强对行政决策的监督才能更好的完善中国重大行政决策的集体讨论决定制度。     

基于快速下界估算的瓶颈旅行商问题竞争决策算法

利用数学推导和证明得出了一个瓶颈旅行商问题下界快速估算法，在此基础上利用竞争决策算法(新型优化思想)的通用模型，给出了一种瓶颈旅行商问题的竞争决策算法，经过大量数据测试和验证，并将求解结果与下界相比较，部分结果与下界相同．