随机模糊折现现金流融资决策模型建立及求解

企业未来投资收益既具有随机性又表现出一定的模糊性,而将未来单位资本投资收益率定义为随机模糊变量,按照企业发展的特点将其分为低、中、高三个阶段,并在随机模糊环境下建立了融资决策模型,最后利用基于随机模糊模拟的SPSA算法对模型进行求解,结合算例对算法的有效性进行了解释。     

入境旅游市场需要引导消费——以嵩山少林寺为例

从“旅游消费心理”和“旅游环境”两个方面分析旅游消费者的决策心理和郑州市旅游业的资源条件及发展现状。依据知觉、动机、决策等心理学理论,对入境旅游市场的吸引力和少林禅宗文化的影响力进行分析,提出以嵩山少林寺为重点,突出专题旅游资源,抓住龙头打造中原旅游精品,引导旅游消费的基本对策。     

Racial/Ethnic Minority Community College Students' Critical Consciousness and Social Cognitive Career Outcomes

A need exists to better understand how racial/ethnic minority students' critical consciousness development in response to marginalization may be involved in their educational and career development. We therefore examined the link between critical consciousness development and career decision self-efficacy and career outcome expectations among racial/ethnic minority community college students. Following social cognitive career theory's conceptual pillars, we developed a testable model integrating critical consciousness and social cognitive variables. This model was tested with 135 racially and ethnically diverse community college students. Data analysis included path analyses and tests of model fit using structural equation modeling. Results suggested that (a) higher critical agency is linked to higher career decision self-efficacy and outcome expectations and (b) critical action and reflection have a bidirectional link and predict higher critical agency. Implications for research and practice aiming to close educational and career gaps among racial/ethnic minorities are discussed.     

Employees’ prosocial behavioral intentions through empowerment in CSR decision-making

This study theorizes and empirically tests a conceptual framework to understand how a company can better motivate its employees to carry out persistent prosocial behavior and develop positive organization-employee relationships through corporate social responsibility (CSR) involvement. A managerial approach, employee participative decision making in CSR, is examined for its impact on the prosocial behavioral outcome among employees and the relational outcome for the organization. Furthermore, a psychological mechanism that emphasizes employees’ perceived need satisfaction is examined as the underlying explanation that drives the effectiveness of the managerial approach. The study results support that empowering employees to co-construct CSR decisions with top management is effective in satisfying employees’ basic psychological needs for autonomy, competence, and relatedness. This in turn increases the employees’ intention to maintain long-lasting involvement in CSR and improves their relationships with the company. This study provides important implications for public relations professionals and organizational leaders on how to improve their internal CSR communication and involvement practice and cultivate desirable organization-employee relationships.     

“载道”的乌鸟——辞赋中的乌意象论略

由于地区和时代风俗的不同,人们对乌鸦的喜恶或有差异。但乌鸟意象作为中国文学中较为复杂的意象之一,却一直为文人墨客所喜爱。此意象不仅涵义丰富,而且在辞赋中又和其在诗词中有显著的区别。唐前,辞赋中的乌鸟是作者借以表达"出"、"处"生存观念的寄托,乌意象亦随辞赋作者表情达意的需要"出""处"儒道两家,其中《神乌傅》正反映了作者在"出"、"处"间的徘徊和抉择。有唐一代,乌意象的灵异祥瑞成为辞赋书写的重要内容。宋以降,辞赋中的乌鸟渐渐摆脱了其作为祥瑞之兆的使命,而被赋予了更多的儒家道德品性。此时的乌意象集忠、孝、仁等儒家大加称扬的道德于一身,堪称"奉行"儒家伦理道德的典范。而明代《孝乌赋》,凸显乌鸟意象的"孝"德,是彰扬乌意象孝行的典型作品。     

智库影响力的国际比较与走向判断

现代智库已经成为各国决策者处理各种社会复杂问题所倚重的重要力量。中国与西方国家智库因为所处的体制环境不同,在独立属性上呈现出本土化运作的特征。通过对中西方智库的独立性的比较、分析和考察,以我国特有的国情为发展的起点,借鉴西方发达国家智库发展的成功经验,找到一条适合我国本土体制和国情的独立性的发展路径,是今后提高我国智库决策影响力的重要价值选择,也是促进我国决策科学化和民主化的重要动力。     

我国企业海外撤资的实物期权分析

由于世界经济形势变化、地区政局不稳和企业对国际市场的误判,我国部分对外投资企业亏损严重,面临着从海外撤资的决择。利用实物期权法分析企业退出问题,参照贝尔曼方程,构建撤资决策的实物期权模型,分析对外投资企业撤资决策的价值。算例分析表明,对外投资企业选择的贴现率、利润的波动率和撤资成本的变化均能影响撤资的时机和方式。我国对外投资企业应根据形势变化和自身实力,不断加强自身抵抗风险的能力,灵活选择趁机抢占国外市场的进攻策略,或尽早撤出以获得放弃期权价值的防守策略。     

Jackpot? Gender Differences in the Effects of Lottery Wins on Separation

In this study, information on small to modest lottery wins from the British Household Panel Survey (N = 2,563) was used to investigate the effect of income on separation. The analysis demonstrated that money matters within relationships. Lottery wins temporarily reduced the odds of separation after men won. Men spent more on leisure and became more satisfied with their leisure time and social lives after winning. Nevertheless, most of the effect of lottery wins on union stability was not mediated by changes in satisfaction; instead, a direct effect of wins on the threshold to leave relationships was observed. No effect on union stability was found when women won. Women did not spend their winnings on leisure time but instead saved or spent money on durable items. These types of spending did not increase satisfaction. The findings suggested that, within families, men acted relatively independently, whereas the behavior of women was more family oriented.     

Using agency data for evidence-based programming: a university-agency collaboration

Agencies providing residential treatment are encouraged, or even mandated, to collect outcomes data and to implement evidence based practices, yet little guidance has been provided on how to do so using agency administrative data that are collected on an ongoing basis. We examined data on Child and Adolescent Functional Assessment Scale (CAFAS) scores for 1608 admissions to a residential treatment center from 2002 through 2008. CAFAS scores were measured every 90 days, providing multiple CAFAS scores for each individual. Results demonstrated that on average residents improved in functioning over time. Sensitive to the evolving needs of residents who had been entering the program, the treatment center made significant program changes in 2006 to attempt to better serve residents through a broad array of specialized programming. Compared to the overall results, the analysis suggested that residents who entered the program since October 2006 appeared to have made larger improvements in their CAFAS scores. Results were derived by employing multilevel models appropriate for estimating growth trajectories with repeated measures data. Conversations with agency staff suggested that using administrative data, and advanced statistical models, were extremely helpful for organizational decision making and evidence-based programming.     

Children and Families’ Involvement in Social Work Decision Making

This review summarises the research literature on children’s and parents’ involvement in social work decision making, which is regarded, in policy terms, as increasingly important. In practice, however, it tends to be messy, difficult and compromised. Different individuals or groups may have different understandings of participation and related concepts, while differences of age and disability also mediate effective user engagement. The literature highlights common themes in effective participatory practice with both children and their parents. Central to this are the establishment of relationships of trust and respect, clear communication and information and appropriate support to participate.