刑事推定的逻辑与司法理性

刑事推定是在部分案件事实不能证明的情况下,依据逻辑关系或者司法理性,确定案件待证事实的过程。推定不是证明,但是,它是以控方的证明和辩方的证伪为基础的。从本质上看,推定不仅是一种逻辑思维过程,还是逻辑思维与司法理性结合的过程。     

论合理性的内涵

合理性的确认所能依据的理由是什么?在何种程度上理由才能说是充分的?要回答这些问题必须弄清合理性的内涵。为此本论述了合理性的三层含义。这种说明是我们对现代各种危机试图做出的回答．为人类的存在提供手段和意义。     

自然法隐退了吗?——反思法律-政治中的普遍正义空间

与以道德价值和普遍正义为圭臬的正统自然法理念相异,近世多元化和相对主义促成了以商谈为基础、政治道德意义上的正义理念,产生了政治对道德伦理中立的诉求。然而,无论在理论上还是国际国内制度实践中,以道德价值为正义基石的自然法在法律-政治中具有不可或缺的地位,特别是法律-政治活动的实践理性过程——判断和决定的过程充分体现了关注自然法原则及其推理的重要性和紧迫性。正义原则无论是作为契约政治的中立“政治道德”,还是在一般道德伦理意义上、以道德为基础的原则,即正义与道德伦理理念的关系与离合将是自然法的下一个战场。     

论价值语言

价值词不是恒常的;价值词有特定含义。价值判断是关于价值的判断而不是关于事实的判断,不同于事实判断;价值判断是判断,而不是指令,价值判断不是价值指令。价值判断与事实判断都遵循逻辑规则,所以“混合式”三段论的价值推理是可能的,结论是价值判断,前提中必须有一个价值判断。价值语言与事实语言有难以割舍的联系:事实语言带有价值倾向,价值语言也包含事实的内容。     

中华传统文化缘何未成为全球化大厦担纲之梁--谈逻辑与分析理性

中华传统文化缺少分析理性,这是它不能产生现代科学技术的原因.辩证理性需要分析理性的"监督",否则就会沦为诡辩.哲学曾经历的庸俗化需要基于分析理性加以清理.现代逻辑的重大成果是分析理性的杰作,其丰富的哲学营养和对传统哲学思考的挑战应当引起哲学家的关注.     

论实践推理中的非理性悖论

戴维森提出的“非理性悖论”揭示了非理性论证在实践推理中的两难困境。但问题的关键在于采取不同的判断理性的标准。从中国哲学的观点看,理性的准则是以“理”为核心,“合理”(to be rational)即“有理”(to be reasonable)。此“理”表面上表现为普遍之“义理”,但实质上却是服从于某种具体的道德规范。据此,在中国哲学中,实践推理中的非理性演变为“无理”(non-ra-tional)或“不讲理”(unreasonable)。通过对比分析戴维森和中国哲学对非理性的认识,可知两者在“认知判断”和“价值判断”上的不同取舍。     

“Should I Trust the Bank or the Social Movement?” Motivated Reasoning and Debtors' Work to Accept Misinformation

How can people believe corporate and state misinformation even if a social movement organization in their community has been countering this misinformation for years? Why do people knowingly accept misinformation without even being upset about it? I address these questions by analyzing ethnographic data and interviews with 84 Chilean low‐income housing debtors, whom, like many Chileans, are victims of financial misinformation. While the state and banks had significant agency in inducing the unproblematic acceptance of misinformation, debtors also played an active role in the processes. First, debtors had to decide whom to trust, which was not only a cognitive problem about evidence but also a behavioral and practical problem involving risks. Second, debtors engaged in “motivated reasoning”—affect‐driven biased information processing—to dismiss the possibility of being misinformed, to downplay the significance of misinformation, and to direct blame away from misinforming institutions. The latter two practices reduced debtors' anger about being misinformed. The findings have implications for studies of social movement framing and counterinformation, for the cognitive psychology of misinformation, and for the sociology and social psychology of acquiescence.     

统计推理谬误的类型与成因分析

统计推理是一种应用相当广泛的推理,在进行统计推理时出现谬误也是常有的现象。这些谬误或者是由于前提不真实,即收集的统计数据不能真实地反映总体的属性;或者是由于分析不合理,即对统计数据的整理不能合理地推出一般结论。其产生的原因,有的来自于外界干扰,但更主要的则来自于主观偏见──主观主义和形而上学的认识方法。统计谬误妨碍了人们对客观事物的正确认识,因此,需要用科学的态度来对它进行分析。     

Inductive Inference: An Axiomatic Approach

A predictor is asked to rank eventualities according to their plausibility, based on past cases. We assume that she can form a ranking given any memory that consists of finitely many past cases. Mild consistency requirements on these rankings imply that they have a numerical representation via a matrix assigning numbers to eventuality–case pairs, as follows. Given a memory, each eventuality is ranked according to the sum of the numbers in its row, over cases in memory. The number attached to an eventuality–case pair can be interpreted as the degree of support that the past case lends to the plausibility of the eventuality. Special instances of this result may be viewed as axiomatizing kernel methods for estimation of densities and for classification problems. Interpreting the same result for rankings of theories or hypotheses, rather than of specific eventualities, it is shown that one may ascribe to the predictor subjective conditional probabilities of cases given theories, such that her rankings of theories agree with rankings by the likelihood functions.     

基于案例推理的直觉模糊决策方法

目前大多数决策方法的定权问题仅依靠决策矩阵而忽略了决策背景。针对上述问题,将案例推理方法融入到直觉模糊决策问题。首先根据直觉模糊数的内涵构建一种相似度公式,将案例推理模型跟相似度测度结合求得最优权重以及分类半径,进而进行择优排序。最后通过案例分析详细说明了本文方法的优势之处:根据决策数据又考虑专家意见,使得决策结果与现实情况更加一致,并提出一种解决面向直觉模糊决策问题的新思路。