Integrating macro- and micro-level approaches in the explanation of population change

Demographers study population change across time and place, and traditionally they place a strong emphasis on a long-range view of population change. This paper builds on current reflections on how to structure the study of population change and proposes a two-stage perspective. The first stage, discovery, focuses on the production of novel evidence at the population level. The second stage, explanation, develops accounts of demographic change and tests how the action and interaction of individuals generate what is discovered in the first stage. This explanatory stage also provides the foundation for the prediction of demographic change. The transformation of micro-level actions and interactions into macro-level population outcomes is identified as a key challenge for the second stage. Specific instances of research are discussed.     

中国少数民族人口老龄化问题研究

利用1990、2000和2010年人口普查数据,分析中国少数民族人口的老龄化问题发现,中国各少数民族人口随全国人口一起,共同进入了持续老龄化的状态,且表现为老年人口规模及其占总人口的比例增长快,75岁以上的高龄老年人增速快,老年人口规模大,老年负担系数大,老龄化族际差异大的＂两高三大＂的特征。文章认为,在未来一个相当长的时期内,少数民族人口的老龄化趋势将会持续下去,老龄化程度会进一步提高。同时,中国少数民族集聚区,经济社会发展水平低,在这一背景下步入老龄化社会,属于典型的＂未富先老＂。要解决好少数民族人口老龄化问题,首先应尽快调整人口政策,以积极的人口对策化解深度人口老龄化进程中的社会压力与经济负担;其次要转变方式,调整结构,切实加快少数民族和民族地区的经济社会发展;第三,要充分开发和利用＂银色人力资源＂,加快发展老龄事业和老龄产业;第四,以健康老龄化为中心构建全民敬老爱老社会服务机制,广泛动员和吸纳社会中介组织、志愿者与社会资源参与。     

中国少数民族人口职业结构变迁研究

利用人口普查数据,对我国少数民族在业人口的职业结构进行分析发现：第一,少数民族总体的在业人口职业分布中,除农、林、牧、渔、水利业生产人员占比远远超过总人口和汉族外,其余各职业人口比例均低于总人口和汉族人口的水平。第二,在业人口职业结构的性别差异及变化趋势说明女性地位在1990～2010年间的逐步提高。第三,从脑力劳动和体力劳动的比例看,少数民族脑力劳动占比低,体力劳动占比超过90％,农村体力劳动占比接近70％。第四,各少数民族在业人口职业结构的多样化程度有所提高。第五,各少数民族间职业结构的族际差异显著。第六,城镇化水平及人口受教育程度是决定在业人口职业结构的主要因素。根据以上分析,我们认为近十年来,少数民族的社会排斥程度在上升。这种上升已经或正在引起一些社会问题,甚至是政治稳定问题,应引起高度关注。为此,首先要进一步加强对少数民族教育的支持力度。其次,在公务员招考中,应提高少数民族的比例,使得其与人口比例相称。第三,规定在少数民族地区的项目中,规定招收少数民族工人的比例,并对超过比例的给予鼓励。     

Optimal impulse control for dividend and capital injection with proportional reinsurance and exponential premium principle

This article supposes that a large insurance company can control its surplus process by reinsurance, paying dividends, or injecting capitals. The exponential premium principle and proportional reinsurance are adopted in business activities. We investigate the general situation that the company needs to pay both proportional and fixed costs for dividends and capital injections. The object of the company is to determine an optimal joint reinsurance–dividend–capital injection strategy for maximizing the expected present value of dividends less capital injections until the time of bankruptcy. In both cases of non cheap and cheap reinsurance, we obtain the explicit solutions for value function and optimal strategy.     

中国的家庭结构转变--来自居住方式与人口因素的作用

基于历次人口普查数据,利用SOCSIM微观模拟方法将家庭转变的关键影响因素分解为人口因素和居住方式因素两个方面,并进一步将人口因素分解为人口惯性、生育率、死亡率和结婚率四个层面进行计量分析.结果发现,当前人口变动相对稳定,较小的波动使其在家庭转变中的贡献率相对较小,而居住方式的影响相对较大;对人口因素的进一步分解还发现,人口惯性及生育率水平的作用相对更大,生育率水平、结婚率水平带来的影响与人口因素的总影响方向是一致的,均提高了一人户、一代户、二代户的人口比重,降低了三代及以上户的人口比重.与之相反,死亡率的影响与人口因素的总影响方向是相反的.     

Comparative analysis of emergency department patients lost to follow-up after computerized alcohol screening and brief intervention

Many studies have evaluated the effectiveness of alcohol screening and brief intervention (SBI) but most of them have reported substantial loss to follow-up without investigating the characteristics of those lost to follow-up. We examined the association between Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) scores, readiness-to-change scores and the demographic factors with lost to follow-up. This retrospective study compared demographic characteristics, AUDIT and readiness-to-change scores for 190 lost to follow-up patients to 221 completed follow-up patients who participated in SBI in the Emergency Department between June 2006 and May 2007. Comparing the association between baseline characteristics and completed follow-up rate, those 30–39, 40–49 and 50 years and older had 0.46 (95% CI 0.32–0.91), 0.49 (95% CI 0.29–0.90) and 0.58 (95%CI 0.22–0.79) lower odds of completing follow-up, respectively, in comparison to those 18–29 years of age. The loss to follow-up group reported more negative consequences of alcohol and binge drinking than the completed follow-up group (p = 0.04). Using logistic regression, patients who experienced more negative effects of alcohol had 0.87 lower odds of completing follow-up (95% CI 0.79–0.96). The patients lost to follow-up in this study were significantly different in age and alcohol drinking habits compared to those completed follow-ups. It is important to consider differential loss to follow-up in assessing the validity and generalizability of intervention studies. This could help in tailoring methods of approaching patients based on target population characteristics.     

公平视角下的国有企业红利分配制度改革

以某铁路车站站场下地下结构盖挖逆作法施工为工程背景，首先现场测试分析了城际铁路列车通过时地下结构的振动响应，其后建立了动车组 轨道结构 地下结构系统耦合动力分析模型，仿真分析了城际铁路列车通过地下结构的全过程，系统探讨了地下结构的车致振动响应及其空间传播规律，揭示了地下结构车致振动机理。研究结果表明，地下结构车致振动随着与运营线路的距离加大而逐渐衰减，且衰减速度逐渐减小；结构动力响应随列车运行时速的提高而增大。     

人口红利转变对居民储蓄水平影响的研究--以福建省为例

改革开放以来，我国人口红利和居民储蓄水平都发生了不同程度的变化。在 Leff 模型基础上，运用福建省三十多年来的统计数据进行实证分析，结果显示：人口红利变动与居民储蓄水平正相关，同时，人口红利变动通过作用于居民储蓄水平进而影响社会经济的发展。     

Bayesian demography 250 years after Bayes

Bayesian statistics offers an alternative to classical (frequentist) statistics. It is distinguished by its use of probability distributions to describe uncertain quantities, which leads to elegant solutions to many difficult statistical problems. Although Bayesian demography, like Bayesian statistics more generally, is around 250?years old, only recently has it begun to flourish. The aim of this paper is to review the achievements of Bayesian demography, address some misconceptions, and make the case for wider use of Bayesian methods in population studies. We focus on three applications: demographic forecasts, limited data, and highly structured or complex models. The key advantages of Bayesian methods are the ability to integrate information from multiple sources and to describe uncertainty coherently. Bayesian methods also allow for including additional (prior) information next to the data sample. As such, Bayesian approaches are complementary to many traditional methods, which can be productively re-expressed in Bayesian terms.     

Distribution of home help services in an elderly urban population: data from the Kungsholmen Project

Data from the total urban population 75 years and older in Kungsholmen, Stockholm were used to calculate the distribution of home help services. A structured questionnaire was used to collect information about education, occupation, living conditions, Katz Activities of Daily Living Scale, contact with the family, medical treatment and also questions about help needed and functional ability. Home help was considered to be provided when the subjects reported receiving home help service from the municipality. The number of hours of home help and the services received were registered. The results show that 86% of the elderly population in the Municipality of Kungsholmen live in their own homes, even when they are very old. Twenty-seven percent of those over 74 years and 33% of those over 80 years received home help services. The people receiving help were mostly women, single living, older and with disability detected by the Katz Activities of Daily Living Scale. The predicting factors of hours of home help are older age, condition of single living, disability detected by the Katz Activities of Daily Living Scale and less years of education. Our results also show that, among those who receive home help service, those with disability in the activities of daily living get more hours of help. However, a considerable group of elderly people are disabled but do not receive any home help. Our data stress the need for more attention by health care planners of domiciliary and intensive care and residential facilities for the high risk population (very old, living alone and with disability).