当代美国少数族裔人口变动特征及社会经济状况比较分析

根据美国 2 0 0 0年人口普查资料及美国政府和民间机构一些有关少数族裔的报告 ,通过对当代美国少数族裔人口在增长速度、出生率和死亡率、地区分布、城乡分布、年龄结构、家庭与婚姻和人口流动性等方面特征 ,以及教育、职业、收入和住房、医疗保险等方面社会经济状况进行的比较分析 ,得出如下结论 :总体上看 ,美国少数族裔的社会经济状况差过人口主体非西裔白人 ;而各少数族裔之间及内部在社会经济状况方面本身也存在巨大差异 ;少数族裔低下的社会经济地位及主流社会种族歧视的普遍存在 ,是导致一系列涉及少数族裔社会问题的重要原因     

“后人口红利期”实现经济持续增长的政策探究

随着我国人口超低生育率的持续,人口老龄化、劳动力逐渐减少、劳动负担逐步加重是未来人口发展的必然态势,经济能否实现持续增长便成为人们关注的问题。从人口对于经济影响的因素分析出发,对促进和发挥人口发展中的积极作用,消弱消极因素影响的政策进行剖析,提出了加快人力资本积累提高劳动生产率、积极调节人口年龄结构、推进产业升级实现经济增长方式的转变等三个方面的政策取向。     

对人口学学科体系的重新认识

人口学是一门方兴未艾的朝阳科学 ,2 1世纪正是人口科学的用武之时 ,人口学科学体系构成的研究是人口学研究中的重要环节。国内外学者对人口学学科体系的认识并不统一 ,对重大人口学问题的看法也有待商榷。人口学分支学科是人口科学研究进一步深入的载体 ,是人口科学发展与创新的新的增长点     

The western fertility decline: Reflections from a chronological perspective

The study of recent fertility trends in the West has been dominated by examinations of Europe. A better perspective on twentieth-century fertility movements can be gained by giving an equal emphasis to trends in the ‘Offshoots’ (USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand). This paper focuses on the periods of rapid fertility decline and to a greater extent on the intervening periods of near-equilibrium. It is suggested that the ‘late twentieth century compromise’ is more stable than is suggested by reports on its internal strains, and that only massive government intervention could raise fertility.     

Origin dependence, secondary migration, and the indirect estimation of migration flows from population stocks

US census data from 1940 to 2000 are used in this paper to illustrate the importance of origin dependence on migration streams and to examine the effects of such dependence on patterns of interregional migration. These findings are then used to make possible the indirect estimation of migration flows. A method is introduced that uses historical regularities found in the ratios of secondary to primary migration and two consecutive birthplace-specific counts of multiregional population stocks. The results demonstrate how patterns of primary and secondary migration act to shape population redistribution processes.     

卡布斯素丹时期阿曼的人口发展及政策

通过分析卡布斯素丹时期阿曼人口发展状况和政府在人口发展方面的政策,阐明了阿曼人口和社会发展在21世纪面临的挑战,以期对我国人口和社会的发展有所借鉴。     

National and subnational projections of elderly living arrangements: An application of the net transition probability macrosimulation model

Recently, McDonaldet al. (2006) outlined a new method of projecting living arrangements, households and dwellings at the national and subnational level, using quinquennial census data. The purpose of this paper is to apply this new simulation method to project the composition of elderly living arrangements at the national and subnational level in Australia over the period 2001 to 2016. This study presents projections of living arrangements for Temporal Statistical Districts within New South Wales and for Australia as a whole. Results show a strong increase in the number of the elderly living alone, particularly elderly males. The rate of growth in lone-person households is particularly strong in coastal and regional New South Wales, underlining the importance of capturing subnational differences in probabilities of births, deaths, migration and household movements when producing regional projections of living arrangements. This paper concludes by considering implications of the findings and potential uses of the net transition probability method.     

美国华裔人口发展趋势和多元化

华人移民美国的历史可追溯到 1 840年末 ,甚至更早。但由于遭美国政府立法排斥 ,在 1 882至 1 943年长达 61年期间 ,华人人口几乎没有增长 ,男女比例严重失调 ,形成一个畸形的、与外界隔绝的单身汉社会。 1 943年排华法废除后华人人口才开始缓慢增长 ,男女比例失调逐渐缩小。自 1 965年新移民法实施以来 ,美国华人人口飞跃增长 ,几乎每十年翻一番 ,男女比例日趋平衡 ,华人社区内部迅速多元化。 2 1世纪初 ,美国华人人口仍在继续快速增长 ,美国华人社区正在从以外来移民为主的社区向本地族裔的社区转变。     

Can migration avert population decline and ageing in East and Southeast Asia?

Fertility is currently below replacement level in China, Hong Kong, Japan, Macao, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand. These low levels are expected to lead to declines in the total population and the number of persons of labour force age. In a report that garnered much attention among policy-makers and the news media, the United Nations Population Division developed the concept of replacement migration. This was defined as the number of international migrants that would be required in order to prevent the declines in the total population; the number of persons of working age; or the potential support ratio (persons aged 15–64 per person aged 65 and over). This paper reviews the hypothetical replacement migration projections for Japan and the Republic of Korea in the United Nations report and examines similar scenarios for China, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand, with a brief overview of possible policy implications.