人口结构、产业结构与中国经济潜在增长率

对于中国经济增长潜力的判断直接关系到宏观经济调控目标和调控方式的选择。在索洛模型框架下结合人口结构和产业结构的转型,构建经济增长系统模型,并提供利用经济结构演变信息来预测未来潜在经济增长率的简单方法;根据实际经济数据和对未来结构转型的情形设定,对中国"十三五"期间经济增长率进行模拟预测,结果显示:在经济结构转型背景下,"十三五"期间中国经济增长率将出现明显下降,大约处于6.22%⁷.17%之间。未来中国经济增长将更加依赖于技术创新和人力资本积累为动力的新的增长模式。     

人口结构变化与城市综合竞争力提升关系研究——以南京为例

我国正处于人口结构快速变动转型时期,人口与经济发展存在一定关联性,它们之间协调发展就能较好地提升一个城市的综合竞争力。在创新和转型经济发展时期,以人口资源、人力资本、人才资质为主要要素的人口结构变化会对城市综合竞争力产生深远的影响。南京是长三角地区重要的区域中心城市,近年来人口结构发生了较大的变化,由此引发了南京经济社会适应性的变革,它们对未来南京城市综合竞争力的提升提出新的要求。     

城市化、对外开放与人口红利——中国1979-2010年经济增长的实证

运用中国1979-2010年的人均GDP增长模型并辅之以序列平稳性、协整关系和序列相关等检验的分析表明,改革开放30多年来,中国经济增长获取了显著的人口红利,而城市化与对外开放等制度条件因素则进一步放大和提升了经济增长中的人口红利效应。文章认为,促使乡城迁移人口由"半城市化"状态向彻底城市化状态的转变以及增加对劳动力的人力资本投资以提高企业对外竞争力等措施对于中国经济增长继续获取人口红利而言至关重要。     

上市公司股东和管理层股利偏好实证研究

文章从代理理论和利益侵占假说角度出发,以沪深两市3350家上市公司财务数据为样本,在我国已经上市的公司中,公司的管理者对股利偏好的差异性开展了实证研究,其研究的结果表现出了上市公司的股东偏好现金股利,而管理者更偏好股票股利。     

红利变化背景下中国经济发展方式转变的供给管理

通过构建指标体系对当前中国经济的发展阶段及其新特征进行评价,探讨红利变化对中国经济发展的影响,进而判断红利变化下中国经济发展方式转变的供给约束。并分析中国经济发展方式转变中需求关系的局限性,最后从改善供给结构、改善要素供给和制度供给方面探析了中国经济发展方式转变的供给管理。     

人口结构转变、家庭教育投资与中国经济增长

从一个两期的世代交叠模型入手,分析并通过数据模拟验证了在家庭和社会两种养老模式共同作用下人口结构转变对家庭教育投资与经济增长的影响。研究发现:人口年龄结构变动与人均储蓄率正相关;而家庭赡养支出比例与人均储蓄率负相关;人口年龄结构变动与教育投资率负相关;而家庭赡养支出比例与教育投资率呈倒U型变化;人口年龄结构变化、家庭赡养支出比例对经济增长的影响不确定。数值模拟结果显示:在当前条件下,中国人口年龄结构变动促进经济增长,而家庭赡养支出比例增大抑制经济增长。     

Bayesian population reconstruction of female populations for less developed and more developed countries

We show that Bayesian population reconstruction, a recent method for estimating past populations by age, works for data of widely varying quality. Bayesian reconstruction simultaneously estimates age-specific population counts, fertility rates, mortality rates, and net international migration flows from fragmentary data, while formally accounting for measurement error. As inputs, Bayesian reconstruction uses initial bias-reduced estimates of standard demographic variables. We reconstruct the female populations of three countries: Laos, a country with little vital registration data where population estimation depends largely on surveys; Sri Lanka, a country with some vital registration data; and New Zealand, a country with a highly developed statistical system and good quality vital registration data. In addition, we extend the method to countries without censuses at regular intervals. We also use it to assess the consistency of results between model life tables and available census data, and hence to compare different model life table systems.     

西方人口分布预测研究动态

在人口预洲领域,对出生、死亡、迁移、规模以及结构（性别、年龄）等因素的预测已经有了很大进展,然而对于人口分布方面的预测研究则少之又少。非常可喜的是,近十年来西方一些学者,在这个方面已经做了一些有益的尝试。可以为我国将来在该领域的研究起到很好的借鉴作用。本文就西方学者近期人口分布预测的研究傲一简要梳理．涉及的预测主题依次为：种族、教育状况、老年人口保健与收入、劳动力、移民出生地、家庭户主率等。     

Three Fertility Compromises and Two Transitions

Demographers and those concerned with population policy are increasingly focusing on the steep fertility declines that occurred in developed countries from the 1960s and the consequent widespread below-replacement fertility levels. The decline has been termed the Second Demographic Transition. This paper argues that the recent demographic change can best be understood and analyzed if we broaden the concept to include the first demographic transition, and the three demographically more settled periods preceding, separating, and following the two fertility transitions. These more settled periods or “compromises” are examined to ascertain their nature and so to help predict the likely developments in the present or third compromise. It is argued that the third compromise has now extended for 20 years with little movement in fertility rates or other socioeconomic behavior which has been said to be associated with the second transition, and that this provides sufficient evidence for analysis. The approach has two key aspects. First, it is confined in Europe to countries that distinctly experienced the full five demographic periods, namely northwestern and central Europe. Second, the analysis gains strength by including non-European countries that progressed through all five stages, namely the English-speaking countries of overseas European settlement: USA, United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand.     

Replacement Migration: A Questionable Tactic for Delaying the Inevitable Effects of Fertility Transition

This article critiques a recent U.N. Population Division report, Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations? The report explores the use of increased immigration to bolster future population size and change age distribution patterns in a group of developed countries. Fertility rate declines and lengthening life expectancies associated with demographic transition inevitably yield an aging population and a falling potential support ratio (PSR), a situation which some demographers and economists view with alarm. As the U.N. report itself suggests, replacement migration can only temporarily delay population aging and decline. These issues are ultimately better addressed through changes in retirement policy. Population projections should be used only with great caution in designing long-term demographic policy. In particular, some assumptions used to make the U.N. projections are questionable, and even minor changes in those assumptions would yield substantially different policy conclusions. Replacement migration also raises difficult environmental questions by moving large numbers of people from low to high per-capita consumption nations. Modest population decline, particularly in more developed countries, may have significant local and global environmental and climate policy benefits.