股利政策与我国上市公司股利分配问题分析

股利分配政策是股份公司财务决策的重要组成部分,它与公司的投资决策、融资决策密切相关。在对两种股利理论介绍的基础上,分析了股利政策的影响因素以及我国上市公司股利政策的现状,进行了原因分析后提出对策建议。     

西藏人口转变中的“人口红利”问题探讨——从人口发展态势看西藏的机遇与挑战（上）

文章以第四、五次人口普查资料为依据,对未来30年西藏自治区的人口规模和结构的变动作了预测。基于预测数据的分析显示,近年来随着妇女总和生育率的下降,西藏正处在人口快速转变之中。本研究表明,2010~2030年间西藏将会出现劳动力适龄人口比例最大、社会总负担比最轻的“人口红利”期。为此,西藏需以新的改革、发展思路迅速提高人口,特别是农牧区人口的教育文化素质,从而促进人口向人力资源的转化。作者针对西藏当前教育性人力资源开发中的主要问题提出的对策建议是:(1)通过人口的适度集中,提高西藏教育资源的利用效率;(2)面对未来25年人口规模和结构变动,对西藏各地区的小学、初中、高中、大学的学校布局、经费投入、师资力量、教学设备等资源配置作相应的调整以提高教育性人力资本的投资效益。     

A behavioral two‐sex marriage model

In this paper we propose a particular marriage model, i.e., a model for the number of marriages for each age combination as a function of the vectors of the number of single men and women in each age group. The model is based on Dagsvik (2000) where it is demonstrated that a general type of matching behavior imply, under specific assumptions about the distribution of the preferences of the women and men, a convenient expression for the corresponding marriage model.

Data from the Norwegian Population Register for nine years are applied to estimate the model. We subsequently test the hypothesis that, apart from a random “noise”; component, the age‐specific parameters of the model change over time according to a common trend. We find that the hypothesis is not rejected by our data.     

上市公司股利政策实证研究

股利是企业对股东投资的回报,股利分配政策不仅关系到股东的经济利益,而且关系到公司的发展前景。上市公司股利政策的制定受到诸多因素的影响。通过回顾有关学者对股利政策关系的实证研究,阐述了股利政策的有关理论。结合我国证券市场的现状,选取了2006年、2007年"沪深300指标股"中的所有符合条件的上市公司,以其为样本运用SPSS13.0软件进行了统计分析,对于不同的股利分配政策对股票价格和公司价值的影响作了分析,从一个侧面反映了股权分置改革的成效。     

现金股利与企业价值的实证研究 ——基于A股市场股权结构的分析

 本文建立了现金股利与企业价值的联立方程，用二阶段最小二乘法分析了我国特有的股权结构下二者之间的关系。研究结果表明，现金股利支付率与企业价值负相关、与管理层持股比例负相关。     

Diffusion Effects in the European Fertility Transition: Historical Evidence from Within a Belgian Town (1846–1910)

This article investigates empirically diffusion effects on married couples' fertility behaviour during the historical European demographic transition. To this end, a blended logistic model of parity-dependent stopping behaviour is developed, including indicators for both natural and structural determinants and diffusion effects. The model is applied to the birth intervals of three 19th century generations of urban working class couples living in the Belgian town of Leuven. The results indicate that occupational status cannot explain the adoption of stopping behaviour. The evidence suggests that diffusion mechanisms were at work on a neighbourhood level: the proportion of Francophone couples living in the Leuven streets had a significant positive impact on the probability that the Flemish couples were applying stopping behaviour. Also, working class couples who were living in a town quarter that was hosting many upper class people were significantly more likely to stop. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

On a perturbed MAP risk model under a threshold dividend strategy

In this paper, we consider a perturbed risk model where the claims arrive according to a Markovian arrival process (MAP) under a threshold dividend strategy. We derive the integro-differential equations for the Gerber–Shiu expected discounted penalty function and the moments of total dividend payments until ruin, obtain the analytical solutions to these equations, and give numerical examples to illustrate our main results. We also get a matrix renewal equation for the Gerber–Shiu function, and present some asymptotic formulas for the Gerber–Shiu function when the claim size distributions are heavy-tailed.     

Substance Abuse Among Puerto Rican and Dominican Gang Members in a Small City Setting

SUMMARY

Joining a gang increases an adolescent's risk for substance abuse. To better understand the contextual development of drug use behavior, this retrospective ethnographic study describes a sample of 76 young small-city mainland Puerto-Rican and Dominican males who joined gangs when they were younger. Data is presented and discussed on the drug abuse behavior including their drug using progression and the context in which such use occurs. The young average age of onset 11.2 (sd = 2.6) combined with the rapid progression to more dangerous drugs, which generally occurs within six years, demonstrates the elevated risk associated with small city gang membership. Differences in the patterns of drug use were also found between the English and Spanish speaking groups. The authors discuss the implications of the study findings on the development of interventions. Recommendations address future research possibilities on drug abuse within Latino gangs.     

中国上市公司现金分红统计特征研究——基于1990—2015年股息率数据的考察

以沪深股市1990—2015年A股上市公司股息率数据为样本,对上市公司股息率的年度、板块、企业性质、行业类别、地区等方面进行特征描述,发现:上市公司分红意识有所加强,分红连续性有所提升,但股息率仍低于国际水平;股息率变动趋势在各板块、行业、地区具有相似性,但不同板块、行业、地区的股息率水平仍差距明显;种种迹象表明中国半强制分红监管具有积极的政策效应.     

Choosing the choice: Reflections on modelling decisions and behaviour in demographic agent-based models

This paper investigates the issues associated with choosing appropriate models of choice for demographic agent-based models. In particular, we discuss the importance of context, time preference, and dealing with uncertainty in decision modelling, as well as the heterogeneity between agents in their decision-making strategies. The paper concludes by advocating empirically driven, modular, and multi-model approaches to designing simulations of human decision-making, given the lack of an agreed strategy for dealing with any of these issues. Furthermore, we suggest that an iterative process of data collection and simulation experiments, with the latter informing future empirical data collection, should form the basis of such an endeavour. The discussion is illustrated with reference to selected demographic agent-based models, with a focus on migration.