Worldwide fertility declines do not rely on stopping at ideal parities

A key demographic hypothesis has been that fertility declines rely on stopping at target parities, but emerging evidence suggests that women frequently reduce fertility without specific numeric targets. To assess the relative importance of these two paths to fertility decline, we develop a novel mixture model to estimate: (1) the proportion of women who stop at a target parity; and (2) mean completed fertility among those who do not. Applied to Demographic and Health Survey data from women aged 45–49 in 84 low- and middle-income countries, and to United States Census cohorts, the model shows considerable variation in the proportion stopping at specific parities (1–84?per cent). The estimates also show that declines in completed fertility are largely attributable to women who do not stop at target parities, suggesting that stopping at ideal parities may be less important than parity-independent decisions for a wide range of fertility transitions.     

Job stability in Europe over the cycle

This article investigates the evolution of job tenure for the time period 2002–2012 using microdata from the European Union Labour Force Survey (EU‐LFS). Overall, the data show a slight increase in average job tenure at the EU level, which can be explained by disproportional lay‐offs of short‐tenured workers during the crisis. When controlling for changes in the demographic composition of the workforce, an underlying negative trend in mean tenure becomes visible. Job tenure evolved very differently across the EU before and during the crisis, highlighting the importance of institutional frameworks, especially employment protection legislation (EPL).     

农村人口年龄结构变动对居民消费的影响研究--以西北五省为例

计划生育政策实施以来,我国人口年龄结构发生了剧烈变动,农村居民消费严重不足,扩大内需成为新常态下我国经济发展的战略方向。基于2001～2013年省际面板数据,运用一步系统广义矩估计法,实证研究了西北五省农村地区人口年龄结构变动对农村居民消费的影响,结果显示：西北五省农村少儿抚养比和农村老年抚养比均与居民消费呈同向变动关系,有效地支持了生命周期假说;城镇化水平与农村居民消费则呈负向关系。     

充分兑现人口红利的途径与措施

经济发展与人口问题密切相关。改革开放以来,中国经济的高速发展,离不开人口红利的贡献。但人口红利并非可持续的,其能否被充分利用,关系到中国的经济是否可以实现持续增长。实现劳动力充分就业,消除城乡流动的障碍,提高劳动力素质,选择可持续的养老保障模式应成为促进人口红利兑现的重要途径。     

Toward a Theory of Fertility and Ethnic Social Capital

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to develop a conceptual model of ethnic fertility differentials that incorporates the intersection of both the macro societal influences as well as the micro actor level influences. It first contextualizes ethnic fertility differentials within the global fertility decline literature. Then it reviews the extant theories of fertility decline. It then turns to an examination of fertility choices in the developed world. A summary of three major approaches to ethnic fertility differentials is examined and then incorporated into a more eclectic perspective provided by Goldscheider. Finally, this paper merges the Goldscheider perspective with the social capital perspective, as applied to fertility decisions, into a conceptual model of ethnic fertility differentials. Lastly, the new conceptual model is used to reflect upon the current state of global fertility decline.     

三种股利分配方案对股价影响差异性的实证研究

股利政策是公司重大财务决策之一,上市公司的股利分配方案公布会引起二级市场股票价格的波动。目前,我国上市公司实际采用的股利分配方案中,主要包括现金股利、股票股利和不分配三种。研究股利分配政策,从而改变企业资本结构,对了解二级市场股价波动及公司并购具有很强的意义。     

证券税制的发展动态与政策调整

证券税制包含证券流转税、证券投资所得税和证券交易利得税等税种。国外的证券流转税正朝宽税基低税率方向发展,其作用日渐淡化;证券投资所得税的税率不断下调,计税方法不断优化以处理股息重复征税;证券交易利得税正逐步推广,税负普遍从轻。我国现行的证券交易印花税和证券投资所得税的税负偏重,调控功能较弱,证券交易利得税也不完整。我国的证券税制政策调整,应以宽税基低税率来改革证券流转税,运用一体化方法完善证券投资所得税,并合理设计计税依据和税率以健全证券交易利得税。     

人口红利对我国城乡收入差距的影响研究

人口红利促进经济增长,但是城乡收入差距却不断扩大。从人口红利的两个显著特征,高劳动参与率和总抚养比的下降两个途径提出理论假说。以中国1993—2012年的第二三产业总比重、城乡人力资本投资差异和城乡收入差距的时间序列数据,构建VECM 模型。实证结果表明：城乡收入差距长期受到产业结构的变动和城乡人力资本投资差异的共同作用;在滞后期内,第二三产业总比重的增加导致城乡收入差距缩小,城乡人力资本投资差异的扩大将导致城乡收入差距扩大。     

中国上市公司股利政策稳定性的实证研究

运用Lintner经典模型,并采用混合回归方法对我国上市公司的股利政策的稳定性进行实证研究,发现与成熟资本市场的上市公司不同,我国上市公司股利支付取决于当年的盈余,与上年的股利支付无关,上市公司遵循不稳定的股利政策,融资制度差异是我国公司股利支付的不稳定的根本原因,盈余的不稳定等因素加剧了股利政策的不稳定。与成熟资本市场国家的股利政策信息内涵不同,我国上市公司股利政策变动并不反映企业未来盈余的变化,因此建议投资者在利用股利政策来决定投资决策时应慎用这些信息。     

河南省人口红利与经济增长关系研究

基于柯布道格拉斯生产函数的理论推导,建立人均收入、人均物质资本和总抚养比三者的计量模型,利用1987—2013年的时间序列数据,通过协整理论对计量模型进行检验,研究河南省人口红利与经济增长的关系。结果显示：三者之间存在长期稳定关系,在长期,总抚养比对人均收入具有负向影响,人均物质资本对经济增长具有正向影响,并且总抚养比变化对人均收入的影响比物质资本投入大;在短期,抚养比变化并未直接作用于经济增长,物质资本的投入对经济增长的影响具有滞后性。