证券税制的发展动态与政策调整

证券税制包含证券流转税、证券投资所得税和证券交易利得税等税种。国外的证券流转税正朝宽税基低税率方向发展,其作用日渐淡化;证券投资所得税的税率不断下调,计税方法不断优化以处理股息重复征税;证券交易利得税正逐步推广,税负普遍从轻。我国现行的证券交易印花税和证券投资所得税的税负偏重,调控功能较弱,证券交易利得税也不完整。我国的证券税制政策调整,应以宽税基低税率来改革证券流转税,运用一体化方法完善证券投资所得税,并合理设计计税依据和税率以健全证券交易利得税。     

中国上市公司股利政策稳定性的实证研究

运用Lintner经典模型,并采用混合回归方法对我国上市公司的股利政策的稳定性进行实证研究,发现与成熟资本市场的上市公司不同,我国上市公司股利支付取决于当年的盈余,与上年的股利支付无关,上市公司遵循不稳定的股利政策,融资制度差异是我国公司股利支付的不稳定的根本原因,盈余的不稳定等因素加剧了股利政策的不稳定。与成熟资本市场国家的股利政策信息内涵不同,我国上市公司股利政策变动并不反映企业未来盈余的变化,因此建议投资者在利用股利政策来决定投资决策时应慎用这些信息。     

人口红利对我国城乡收入差距的影响研究

人口红利促进经济增长,但是城乡收入差距却不断扩大。从人口红利的两个显著特征,高劳动参与率和总抚养比的下降两个途径提出理论假说。以中国1993—2012年的第二三产业总比重、城乡人力资本投资差异和城乡收入差距的时间序列数据,构建VECM 模型。实证结果表明：城乡收入差距长期受到产业结构的变动和城乡人力资本投资差异的共同作用;在滞后期内,第二三产业总比重的增加导致城乡收入差距缩小,城乡人力资本投资差异的扩大将导致城乡收入差距扩大。     

河南省人口红利与经济增长关系研究

基于柯布道格拉斯生产函数的理论推导,建立人均收入、人均物质资本和总抚养比三者的计量模型,利用1987—2013年的时间序列数据,通过协整理论对计量模型进行检验,研究河南省人口红利与经济增长的关系。结果显示：三者之间存在长期稳定关系,在长期,总抚养比对人均收入具有负向影响,人均物质资本对经济增长具有正向影响,并且总抚养比变化对人均收入的影响比物质资本投入大;在短期,抚养比变化并未直接作用于经济增长,物质资本的投入对经济增长的影响具有滞后性。     

隐性契约与公司股利政策研究

隐性契约以商品所有权分割为存在前提,含有隐性契约价格的商品出售使公司承担对顾客的隐性负债,从而对股利政策产生约束。专用性投资是偿还隐性负债的基础,在公司具备相当盈利能力的前提下,专用性投资与股利支付水平应具有负相关关系。实证研究表明,由于中国上市公司的自生能力不足,内部资金没有成为其主要的资金来源,导致专用性投资与股利支付率不具有显著的相关关系。     

Regional Features and the Socio-Demographic Development of the Jews of Podilia

ABSTRACT

This article examines how the Jewish national minority of Podilia – a historical-geographical region mainly in the central part of Ukraine – formed. Considerable attention is given to the demographic processes within the Jewish environment of the region and features of formation of the social characteristics of the Jewish population that manifested themselves in its resettlement, formation of localities, self-government, and professional employment. This article shows that one of the biggest Eastern European Jewish communities was formed in Podilia before the beginning of World War II. This community was represented by the largest Jewish subethnic group – Ashkenazim. The social features of the Jews of the region were determined by the fact that the Jewish population lived in small towns of the primarily agrarian region. In addition, during this period, its social structure and professional employment were determined by both national customs and traditions and the power policy.

This study shows that after the 1940s, the Jewish community in Podilia changed. The Jews suffered from the Holocaust, which forever changed the social characteristics of the Jewish population of Podilia.

Active anti-Jewish policy during the postwar totalitarian regime, latent antisemitism during the “thaw,” and the authoritarian conservative regime in the USSR from 1964 to the mid 1980s, caused significant changes in the demographic processes of the Jewish population of the region. From the 1940s to the 1980s, the Jewish population of Podilia steadily decreased. The Jewish community before the end of the 1980s noticeably lost its influence in the region, but remained the largest ethnic community there, after Russians.     

充分兑现人口红利 实现经济持续增长

经济发展和人口问题密切相关。改革开放以来,中国经济的高速发展,离不开人口红利的贡献。人口转变过程的特殊性,使得中国的人口红利来得早,也去得快。如何抓住这短暂的历史机遇,如何挖掘人口红利的巨大效应,从而发挥劳动力资源优势,提高劳动力配置效率,这不仅是中国获得经济持续高速发展的重要手段,也是迎接老龄化社会到来的当务之急。笔者认为,实现劳动力充分就业,消除城乡流动的障碍,提高劳动力素质,选择可持续的养老保障模式应成为促进人口红利兑现的重要途径。     

Mortality–fertility synergies during the demographic transition in the developed world

The classic theory used to explain the demographic transition assumes that mortality is the key explanatory variable influencing the decline in fertility. However, the empirical results obtained in what is known as the Princeton European Fertility Project have led many specialists to question this assumption. Using both national and provincial aggregated data for 25 countries over a long time span, the analysis reported in this paper found that mortality does indeed play a fundamental role in accounting for the main demographic changes that occurred both before and during the transitional period. Others’ research based on individual data has shown clearly that the number of surviving children was indeed an important factor for reproductive decisions. My analysis, using aggregated data, reached largely similar conclusions regarding the role of mortality in changing reproductive trends, via its impact on nuptiality and marital fertility at different stages of the demographic transition.     

Assessing the impact of liberalising the one-child policy on the sustainability of China’s pension system

This article examines the effects of the so-called two-child policy on the future demographic structure and on alleviating the pension payment pressures. To this end, we provide population projections based on the cohort-component method and simulate the total fertility rate in different social-demographic scenarios. Actuarial models for pension fund budgets are calibrated. We found that the economic effects of the new fertility policy involve a time lag, with the predicted system dependency ratio significantly declining after 2035. The overall sustainability of pension balance will be improved, however, with the occurrence of both current and accumulated deficits delayed.     

未来全国和不同区域人口城镇化水平预测

城镇化将是我国未来几十年社会经济发展的动力之一。从人口学的角度讲,在加速城镇化过程中,人口三大因素,即出生、死亡、迁移的变化中,人口城乡迁移将是核心问题。本文在城镇化发展的中方案假设下,利用ⅡASA的模型对全国和地区未来30年人口城镇化水平进行预测。结果显示了全国和不同区域的城镇化长期趋势;揭示了城乡间的迁移和农村居民身份的改变,是城镇地区人口高速增长的重要因素。伴随城镇化的加速,农村地区人口老龄化速度快于城市。