充分兑现人口红利 实现经济持续增长

经济发展和人口问题密切相关。改革开放以来,中国经济的高速发展,离不开人口红利的贡献。人口转变过程的特殊性,使得中国的人口红利来得早,也去得快。如何抓住这短暂的历史机遇,如何挖掘人口红利的巨大效应,从而发挥劳动力资源优势,提高劳动力配置效率,这不仅是中国获得经济持续高速发展的重要手段,也是迎接老龄化社会到来的当务之急。笔者认为,实现劳动力充分就业,消除城乡流动的障碍,提高劳动力素质,选择可持续的养老保障模式应成为促进人口红利兑现的重要途径。     

人口年龄结构转变对经济增长的影响--以长三角地区为例

人口因素与经济增长的关系历来为人们所关注。文章利用五次人口普查及各次人口抽样调查的分年龄组数据,及各地统计年鉴中的相关数据,以人均GDP的增长率为因变量,各年龄段人口比重、人口自然增长率、通货膨胀率、固定资产投资增长率、财政支出增长率等指标为应变量,分析了人口年龄结构及转变对全国及长三角地区经济增长的影响。结果表明,目前长三角地区人口年龄结构转变使长三角地区快于全国进入了“人口红利期”,为该地区的经济建设创造了较好的人口条件。     

Assessing the impact of liberalising the one-child policy on the sustainability of China’s pension system

This article examines the effects of the so-called two-child policy on the future demographic structure and on alleviating the pension payment pressures. To this end, we provide population projections based on the cohort-component method and simulate the total fertility rate in different social-demographic scenarios. Actuarial models for pension fund budgets are calibrated. We found that the economic effects of the new fertility policy involve a time lag, with the predicted system dependency ratio significantly declining after 2035. The overall sustainability of pension balance will be improved, however, with the occurrence of both current and accumulated deficits delayed.     

Mortality–fertility synergies during the demographic transition in the developed world

The classic theory used to explain the demographic transition assumes that mortality is the key explanatory variable influencing the decline in fertility. However, the empirical results obtained in what is known as the Princeton European Fertility Project have led many specialists to question this assumption. Using both national and provincial aggregated data for 25 countries over a long time span, the analysis reported in this paper found that mortality does indeed play a fundamental role in accounting for the main demographic changes that occurred both before and during the transitional period. Others’ research based on individual data has shown clearly that the number of surviving children was indeed an important factor for reproductive decisions. My analysis, using aggregated data, reached largely similar conclusions regarding the role of mortality in changing reproductive trends, via its impact on nuptiality and marital fertility at different stages of the demographic transition.     

人口红利、经济增长与产业结构调整

近三十年来,依靠人口红利与结构红利,我国经济取得了快速发展。本文通过实证验证了人口红利与结构红利在我国经济中所起的作用。随着我国人口红利的不断减小乃至消失,在充分把握人口红利效应的同时,应加强产业结构转型,促进经济可持续增长。     

Life Course Changes of Children and Well‐being of Parents

How do children's life course transitions affect the well‐being of their parents? Using a large panel survey among parents with longitudinal information on 2 randomly chosen children, the authors analyzed the effects of children's union formation, parenthood, and union dissolution on changes in depressive symptoms of parents. Negative effects were found for children's divorce, and positive effects were found for children's marriage and parenthood. Mothers suffered more from a child's divorce or separation than fathers. Effects depended in part on the parent's traditional family norms, pointing to a normative explanation of life course effects. Little evidence was found for explanations in terms of altruism or selfish motivations. In a more general sense, this article supports the notion of linked lives suggested by the life course perspective. This research provides stronger support for this notion than the few previous studies that have examined it.     

中国农业“人口红利”正在消失——基于随机前沿模型的检验

本文运用了随机前沿分析方法,根据全国三十个省、直辖市和自治区1990—2009年的省级面板数据对中国农业劳动力的利用率进行了估算。主要估算结果包括：1、中国农业劳动力利用率增长显著,从1990年全国平均68．1％上升到2009年全国平均84％。这说明我国农业劳动力虽仍有剩余,但向其他产业转移空间已经不大。如果延续目前劳动力利用率的增长速度,“人口红利”对经济增长的推动作用将在几年内消失;2、各地区的劳动力利用率及其变动趋势有明显差异,表明不同地区对“人口红利”的贡献有所不同：3、在1990—2009年期间中国农业产出的平均就业弹性趋近于零。     

未来全国和不同区域人口城镇化水平预测

城镇化将是我国未来几十年社会经济发展的动力之一。从人口学的角度讲,在加速城镇化过程中,人口三大因素,即出生、死亡、迁移的变化中,人口城乡迁移将是核心问题。本文在城镇化发展的中方案假设下,利用ⅡASA的模型对全国和地区未来30年人口城镇化水平进行预测。结果显示了全国和不同区域的城镇化长期趋势;揭示了城乡间的迁移和农村居民身份的改变,是城镇地区人口高速增长的重要因素。伴随城镇化的加速,农村地区人口老龄化速度快于城市。     

Social Security and Demographic Shocks

An overlapping generations model of social security with shocks to the productivity of labor and capital and demographic shocks is studied. We focus attention on stationary long run allocations. An allocation is interim optimal if there does not exist another feasible allocation that improves the expected welfare of all generations, computed conditionally on the state of the world when they are born. We characterize the set of interim optimal allocations and study the equilibria associated with various institutional forms of social security from the point of view of this optimality criterion. We obtain the analogs of the two traditional welfare theorems of microeconomic theory. Assume that there exists a financial asset in fixed quantity, which supports some (non null) intergenerational transfers. Then the rational expectations equilibrium allocation of this economy is interim optimal. Conversely, any stationary interim optimal allocation can be supported by such an equilibrium, with adequate lump sum transfers.     

The effect of long-term migration dynamics on population structure in England & Wales and Scotland

We investigated the effect of migration on population dynamics in England & Wales and Scotland from the mid-nineteenth century to the present by comparing actual population size and structure with estimates based on zero net migration from a range of starting dates. In this period, Scotland had the largest net outflow among countries in Europe for which detailed information is available, whereas overall net migration in England & Wales was close to zero. In the absence of migration, population would have been over twice as large in Scotland in 2013 as the actual value, but similar to its actual value in England & Wales. Levels and pace of population ageing have been broadly similar in both countries, so the major impact of differential migration has been on population size rather than structure. We discuss these findings in relation to the debate on migration policy between political parties supporting and opposing independence in the 2014 Scottish referendum.