上市公司综合评价研究

客观合理地评价上市公司,是投资者、上市公司以及监管机构都非常关注的问题,也是规范发展证券市场的一个重要方面。基于平衡记分卡的原理,提出了我国上市公司的评价指标体系。财务层面的评价采用因子分析法;客户层面、内部层面、学习与创新层面以及综合评价,则是根据模糊三角数的概念构造判断矩阵,利用模糊三角数比较大小的原理进行排序。     

多媒体综合电教室的设计与建设

提出了多媒体综合电教室不宜片面地追求硬件设备的建设问题,探讨了多媒体综合电教室设计的原则及多媒体计算机、投影机、视频展示台、扩音系统等媒体应具备的功能指标。同时,提出了合理的设计与建设方案。     

论英语课堂教学设计的艺术

本文通过对英语课堂教学设计的分析,提出课堂教学设计艺术的重要性,并具体提出了课堂教学设计艺术的几个措施:抓住重点,艺术地设计基础知识教学;艺术导入,集中学生课堂注意力;培养自然、真实、平等的教学气氛;艺术创设教学情景。最后,总结出课堂教学设计的艺术给师生带来了愉悦。     

论发展中的室内文化体系——软装饰

在人们的居住环境向个性化、舒适化、文化层面发展的今天,室内软装饰显出愈来愈重要的意义。本文就“软装饰”及其所涉及到的室内文化层面的一些特征展开探讨,提出软装饰是营造室内文化的重要标志、是可持续的设计文化等观点。     

经济预测中的Monte Carlo模拟及方差控制——以国际石油价格预测为例

从MDnte Carlo模拟的实现过程入手，首先通过对Monte Carlo方法原理的阐述来介绍该种方法。进一步结合具体的实例通过计算机进行模拟来解释Monte Carlo方法的具体实现过程。重点讨论在选择合理的数据生成过程的前提下，如何在Monte Carlo方法中减少模拟方差，从而提高估计精度，更好地应用这种方法来进行经济预测。     

Sampling design proportional to order statistic of auxiliary variable

The sampling designs dependent on sample moments of auxiliary variables are well known. Lahiri (Bull Int Stat Inst 33:133–140, 1951) considered a sampling design proportionate to a sample mean of an auxiliary variable. Sing and Srivastava (Biometrika 67(1):205–209, 1980) proposed the sampling design proportionate to a sample variance while Wywiał (J Indian Stat Assoc 37:73–87, 1999) a sampling design proportionate to a sample generalized variance of auxiliary variables. Some other sampling designs dependent on moments of an auxiliary variable were considered e.g. in Wywiał (Some contributions to multivariate methods in, survey sampling. Katowice University of Economics, Katowice, 2003a); Stat Transit 4(5):779–798, 2000) where accuracy of some sampling strategies were compared, too.These sampling designs cannot be useful in the case when there are some censored observations of the auxiliary variable. Moreover, they can be much too sensitive to outliers observations. In these cases the sampling design proportionate to the order statistic of an auxiliary variable can be more useful. That is why such an unequal probability sampling design is proposed here. Its particular cases as well as its conditional version are considered, too. The sampling scheme implementing this sampling design is proposed. The inclusion probabilities of the first and second orders were evaluated. The well known Horvitz–Thompson estimator is taken into account. A ratio estimator dependent on an order statistic is constructed. It is similar to the well known ratio estimator based on the population and sample means. Moreover, it is an unbiased estimator of the population mean when the sample is drawn according to the proposed sampling design dependent on the appropriate order statistic.     

A spatiotemporal auto-regressive moving average model for solar radiation

Summary.  To investigate the variability in energy output from a network of photovoltaic cells, solar radiation was recorded at 10 sites every 10 min in the Pentland Hills to the south of Edinburgh. We identify spatiotemporal auto-regressive moving average models as the most appropriate to address this problem. Although previously considered computationally prohibitive to work with, we show that by approximating using toroidal space and fitting by matching auto-correlations, calculations can be substantially reduced. We find that a first-order spatiotemporal auto-regressive (STAR(1)) process with a first-order neighbourhood structure and a Matern noise process provide an adequate fit to the data, and we demonstrate its use in simulating realizations of energy output.     

Bayesian inference for a discretely observed stochastic kinetic model

The ability to infer parameters of gene regulatory networks is emerging as a key problem in systems biology. The biochemical data are intrinsically stochastic and tend to be observed by means of discrete-time sampling systems, which are often limited in their completeness. In this paper we explore how to make Bayesian inference for the kinetic rate constants of regulatory networks, using the stochastic kinetic Lotka-Volterra system as a model. This simple model describes behaviour typical of many biochemical networks which exhibit auto-regulatory behaviour. Various MCMC algorithms are described and their performance evaluated in several data-poor scenarios. An algorithm based on an approximating process is shown to be particularly efficient.     

御园自是湖光好，山色还须让静宜——浅析香山静宜园28景经营意向

香山静宜园是著名清代皇家园林,始建于乾隆朝,是清代皇家园林的重要代表,涵纳的造园意象非常丰富,具有极高的研究价值。系统地研究静宜园28景的构成要素和设计手法,总结出香山静宜园建筑设计和景观经营意向,有助于深入探索自然山水园的思想精髓,对当今的建筑环境以及景观设计都有重要的借鉴和指导意义。     

以旅游业为龙头推进西部地区城镇化建设

城镇化是人类社会发展和进步的必然趋势 ,是衡量一定地域经济社会发展水平和文明程度的重要标志。针对我国西部地区以农村人口为主和城镇与农村并存的特点 ,西部要发展就必须找准突破口 ,加强地方经济建设 ,推进城镇化进程