Time Consistency: Stationarity and Time Invariance

A sequence of experiments documents static and dynamic “preference reversals” between sooner‐smaller and later‐larger rewards, when the sooner reward could be immediate. The theoretically motivated design permits separate identification of time consistent, stationary, and time invariant choices. At least half of the subjects are time consistent, but only three‐quarters of them exhibit stationary choices. About half of subjects with time inconsistent choices have stationary preferences. These results challenge the view that present‐bias preferences are the main source of time inconsistent choices.     

从魏克塞尔到凯恩斯利率理论的研究

魏克塞尔把货币问题与经济发展密切联系起来,通过对利率的分析,明确了经济发展与货币供给的关系。凯恩斯在继承魏克塞尔的基础上进一步阐明了货币供给对经济发展的重要作用,在批判古典主义货币理论的基础上开创了宏观调控的理论,从而使调控经济增长有了理论基础,而这个理论很重要的部分就是利率理论。因此,要合理运用凯恩斯理论调控经济,就必须更清楚地把握其利率理论。     

美国实施亚太再平衡战略的制度途径--TP P框架的权力分析

国际制度是国际社会在发展进程中,在民族国家之间的联系更为密切、互动更为频繁的基础上逐渐产生的一种国际关系现象。冷战结束后,美国凸显为国际体系中综合实力最强大的国家,成为占据体系权力结构中心的单极权力国家。美国在强调凭借军事手段塑造国际新秩序的同时,并没有放弃发挥国际制度的权力作用。美国在有效发挥其军事、经济、文化和科技等表现为具体形式的实体权力竞争力、吸引力和号召力的同时,强化了国际制度规则的构建和运用。     

农村土地综合整治绩效评价的MAUT及FANP分析

文章利用成都市2001-2010年农村土地综合整治的统计数据以及对五个区县市农村集中居住新区的调查数据,从多重属性效用理论的利益相关者视角构建指标体系,采用FANP模型对土地综合整治综合绩效进行分析。评价结果表明:(1)成都市自2001年来的土地整治工作取得了比较满意的绩效;(2)土地综合整治尚存以下主要问题:耕地数量难以提高;建设用地指标整理难度偏大;农业科技发展水平不能满足需求;农业生产率有待提高;"空心村"现象严重等。在分析这些问题的基础上提出了解决对策。     

“美为人而存在”:鲁迅“立人”文艺观论析

21世纪的鲁迅研究应当致力于鲁迅整体价值观念和精神框架的建构而非解构,＂立人＂作为一条明晰的思想脉络贯穿其全部著述及文学活动,是鲁迅思想的核心,也成为他的基本价值尺度,成其始终不渝的理想乃至信仰;唯有承认＂立人＂的本质性意义,才能合理地解释其文艺思想强烈的现实性。其人本主义的文学起源观与创作观、超越＂功利—非功利＂界限的文学功能论以及＂不用之用＂的批评实践特色,从本质、效果、方法3个维度构成了鲁迅的＂立人＂文艺观。     

城市水务基础设施的物权设计

改革开放在我国已经开展了三十多年,从21世纪初开始,市政公用事业的市场化改革才明显加快。各地方政府为促进城市化和提高城市竞争力,开始大量引进国内外民间资金参与市政公用事业的建设和管理,取得了一定的成就,但是仍然存在很多问题。鉴于水务产业市场化的重要意义,选择以城市水务基础设施为突破口,研究其物权设计,分析在公用事业市场化改革中,不同的物权设计对水务基础设施实现方式和实现程度的影响,希望得出的结论能对基础设施的改革进程有一定的借鉴意义。     

An Attempt in Modeling the Labor Supply Process of Married Women in Tunisia

ABSTRACT

This article is aimed at determining the appropriate model for a married woman’s labor supply process in the presence of strategic interaction. We here compare two approaches: a traditional model and a strategic model. We try to estimate the process using Probit and Strategic models and specify, via structural equations, the advantage of the strategic model in the study of strategic data. Using the two models on individual Tunisian data enables us to note that as contrary to the woman expectations in a Probit model, the financial side is not a determining factor in the husband’s reaction once his wife gave up her work. This result has been observed only via the strategic model because it takes into account the presence of effect of strategic interaction between a woman’s decision and her husband’s reaction.     

更新扩散模型与最优广告费用控制

从消费者购买行为的分析,应用贝叶斯风险决策理论,研究了新产品的市场扩散过程,建立了耐用消费品及重复性购买产品的总体市场扩散模型。在考虑广告和已购者信息传播效应基础上,应用最优控制理论,得出了广告费用的最优控制策略。     

Forecast Evaluation in the Presence of Unobserved Volatility

A number of volatility forecasting studies have led to the perception that the ARCH- and Stochastic Volatility-type models provide poor out-of-sample forecasts of volatility. This is primarily based on the use of traditional forecast evaluation criteria concerning the accuracy and the unbiasedness of forecasts. In this paper we provide an analytical assessment of volatility forecasting performance. We use the volatility and log volatility framework to prove how the inherent noise in the approximation of the true- and unobservable-volatility by the squared return, results in a misleading forecast evaluation, inflating the observed mean squared forecast error and invalidating the Diebold-Mariano statistic. We analytically characterize this noise and explicitly quantify its effects assuming normal errors. We extend our results using more general error structures such as the Compound Normal and the Gram-Charlier classes of distributions. We argue that evaluation problems are likely to be exacerbated by non-normality of the shocks and that non-linear and utility-based criteria can be more suitable for the evaluation of volatility forecasts.     

Estimation in Semiparametric Marginal Shared Gamma Frailty Models

The semiparametric marginal shared frailty models in survival analysis have the non–parametric hazard functions multiplied by a random frailty in each cluster, and the survival times conditional on frailties are assumed to be independent. In addition, the marginal hazard functions have the same form as in the usual Cox proportional hazard models. In this paper, an approach based on maximum likelihood and expectation–maximization is applied to semiparametric marginal shared gamma frailty models, where the frailties are assumed to be gamma distributed with mean 1 and variance θ. The estimates of the fixed–effect parameters and their standard errors obtained using this approach are compared in terms of both bias and efficiency with those obtained using the extended marginal approach. Similarly, the standard errors of our frailty variance estimates are found to compare favourably with those obtained using other methods. The asymptotic distribution of the frailty variance estimates is shown to be a 50–50 mixture of a point mass at zero and a truncated normal random variable on the positive axis for θ₀ = 0. Simulations demonstrate that, for θ₀ < 0, it is approximately an x −(100 − x )%, 0 ≤ x ≤ 50, mixture between a point mass at zero and a truncated normal random variable on the positive axis for small samples and small values of θ₀; otherwise, it is approximately normal.