国际直接投资理论与中国海外投资的实证研究

国际直接投资理论在前半个世纪的发展中,众多流派出现。较成熟的理论,主要有微观主流优势论、边际产业扩张论以及小规模技术理论等。改革开放后,中国的海外投资的总量呈波动型增长特征,投资区域以发展中国家和地区为主．投资行业集中在贸易、航运、资源开发和加工生产等。构建适合中国实际的海外投资理论,应充分考虑当前制度转轨的背景和二元经济结构状况,应注重考察诱导因素、文化等非经济因素对中国海外投资的影响。     

A Meta-Analysis of Children's Hand-to-Mouth Frequency Data for Estimating Nondietary Ingestion Exposure

Because of their mouthing behaviors, children have a higher potential for exposure to available chemicals through the nondietary ingestion route; thus, frequency of hand-to-mouth activity is an important variable for exposure assessments. Such data are limited and difficult to collect. Few published studies report such information, and the studies that have been conducted used different data collection approaches (e.g., videography versus real-time observation), data analysis and reporting methods, ages of children, locations, and even definitions of "mouthing." For this article, hand-to-mouth frequency data were gathered from 9 available studies representing 429 subjects and more than 2,000 hours of behavior observation. A meta-analysis was conducted to study differences in hand-to-mouth frequency based on study, age group, gender, and location (indoor vs. outdoor), to fit variability and uncertainty distributions that can be used in probabilistic exposure assessments, and to identify any data gaps. Results of this analysis indicate that age and location are important for hand-to-mouth frequency, but study and gender are not. As age increases, both indoor and outdoor hand-to-mouth frequencies decrease. Hand-to-mouth behavior is significantly greater indoors than outdoors. For both indoor and outdoor hand-to-mouth frequencies, interpersonal, and intra-personal variability are approximately 60% and approximately 30%, respectively. The variance difference among different studies is much bigger than its mean, indicating that different studies with different methodologies have similar central values. Weibull distributions best fit the observed data for the different variables considered and are presented in this article by study, age group, and location. Average indoor hand-to-mouth behavior ranged from 6.7 to 28.0 contacts/hour, with the lowest value corresponding to the 6 to <11 year olds and the highest value corresponding to the 3 to <6 month olds. Average outdoor hand-to-mouth frequency ranged from 2.9 to 14.5 contacts/hour, with the lowest value corresponding to the 6 to <11 year olds and the highest value corresponding to the 6 to <12 month olds. The analysis highlights the need for additional hand-to-mouth data for the <3 months, 3 to <6 months, and 3 to <6 year age groups using standardized collection and analysis because of lack of data or high uncertainty in available data. This is the first publication to report Weibull distributions as the best fitting distribution for hand-to-mouth frequency; using the best fitting exposure factor distribution will help improve estimates of exposure. The analyses also represent a first comprehensive effort to fit hand-to-mouth frequency variability and uncertainty distributions by indoor/outdoor location and by age groups, using the new standard set of age groups recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for assessing childhood exposures. Thus, the data presented in this article can be used to update the U.S. EPA's Child-Specific Exposure Factors Handbook and to improve estimates of nondietary ingestion in probabilistic exposure modeling.     

促进我国数字出版产业技术创新的对策研究

技术创新是科学技术转化为现实生产力的重要途径。出版业产生与发展的历史表明,出版业是一个高度的技术依赖型行业。随着现代电子信息技术的飞速发展,我国出版业正经历由传统出版向数字出版的数字化转型。在数字出版产业飞速发展的同时还存在诸如产业链整合、版权保护、人才建设和集群创新等方面制约技术创新的一系列问题。在深入分析这些问题的基础上,提出了促进我国数字出版技术创新的对策建议。     

内容银行构建对我国数字内容产业发展的必要性研究

为解决现阶段新兴文化产业的核心———数字内容产业其内容价值无法实现、盗版泛滥等问题，从内容与技术微观层面的研究视角，分析了数字内容产业发展现状，提出构建“内容银行”的必要性并建构了其运行体系，以解决现阶段数字内容产业存在的问题，以规范数字内容产业交易行为，保障版权制度，在交易中实现数字内容价值，并引入案例分析内容银行从理论到实践的可行性，实现数字内容产业更好更快地健康发展。     

基于语料库的Assure和Ensure两词的对比研究

利用语料库研究方法，基于英国国家语料库（BNC），比较分析意义相近的动词assure和ensure的词频、搭配、类联接及语义韵。研究发现，assure较ensure更常用于口语和小说中，ensure多用于学术文章和新闻中。assure用来表示向某人保证某事将要发生，既可以用来确证某事，也可以表示使某人确信，assure的宾语通常是人名或人称代词，抽象名词较少，而且做宾语的抽象名词多为积极语韵；而ensure后面的宾语通常是抽象名词，较少使用人名或人称代词，且做宾语的抽象名词也是多为积极语韵。通过观察索引行还得出ensure的5种典型搭配。     

从推测语气上看「ようだ」和「らしい」的区别

对推量助动词「ようだ」和「らしい」在推测语气上的异同进行了分析和比较,结果表明这两个词主要在判断依据的直接性和间接性、说话者的心理意识的远近以及责任意识的承担和回避上存在语义内涵的区别。     

审判委员会制度重塑

作为我国独特创举的审判委员会制度,长期以来为学界所争议.总体上看,当下我国法律界对其的批评已逐渐成为主流,并且主要指向审判委员会“审判分离”、侵犯当事人诉讼权利、行政化倾向严重、责任分担不明等问题.在试图对审判委员会制度的历史沿革及现状进行剖析的基础之上,尝试提出初步的改革设想,使这一具有中国特色的诉讼制度能够符合司法审判的规律,满足司法审判实践的要求.     

Effect of Particle Size on Risk Assessment of Direct Soil Ingestion and Metals Adhered to Children's Hands at Playgrounds

The quantity of heavy metals in soil is measured after 2‐mm sieving in Japan for risk assessment of direct soil ingestion. A study was conducted on the relationship between the size of soil particles and quantity of heavy metals in soil, and the particle‐size distribution of soil adhered to children's hands, and the risks of direct intake of soil considering the particle sizes ingested were evaluated. The results showed that smaller particles had a tendency to contain more heavy metals than bigger ones, that the particle size of approximately 90% of the soil particles from playgrounds adhered to children's hands was less than 100 μm, and that 2‐mm sieving in preparation for measuring heavy metal content caused underestimation of the risk of direct soil intake. The amount of heavy metals on children's hands after playing outside was investigated. Various metals and soil were adhered to their hands, and the amount of soil adhered could be estimated from the concentration of metals. To develop accurate risk assessment, the particle‐size distribution of ingested soil and more detailed scenarios of soil intake are necessary.     

央行沟通与实际干预的频域政策效果研究

利用谱分析识别宏观变量的主导频域,进而采用小波方法分离出宏观变量的低频、经济周期频域以及高频三种频域成分,最后构建结构向量自回归模型考察实际干预工具和央行信息沟通在不同频域的政策效果.研究结果显示,中国经济增长的波动由长周期的低频波动所主导,经济周期频域次之,但是所有货币政策工具对低频波动的调控效果都不理想,而只在经济周期频域有较好表现.通货膨胀则是由经济周期频域的波动所主导,价格型货币政策和央行沟通都呈现出对此频域的良好调控效果.预期通胀在各个频域的波动分布较为均衡,央行沟通在低频和经济周期频域均起到了良好的调控效果,体现出其在预期管理中的突出作用.数量型货币政策整体表现均不理想.     

Evaluation of realized volatility predictions from models with leptokurtically and asymmetrically distributed forecast errors

Accurate volatility forecasting is a key determinant for portfolio management, risk management and economic policy. The paper provides evidence that the sum of squared standardized forecast errors is a reliable measure for model evaluation when the predicted variable is the intra-day realized volatility. The forecasting evaluation is valid for standardized forecast errors with leptokurtic distribution as well as with leptokurtic and asymmetric distributions. Additionally, the widely applied forecasting evaluation function, the predicted mean-squared error, fails to select the adequate model in the case of models with residuals that are leptokurtically and asymmetrically distributed. Hence, the realized volatility forecasting evaluation should be based on the standardized forecast errors instead of their unstandardized version.