Did Divorces Decline After the Oklahoma City Bombing?

The Oklahoma City bombing in April 1995 was an act of terrorism that had many potential influences on the city and state, including influences on families. We analyzed divorce data from 1985 to 2000 for all 77 counties in Oklahoma to assess the divorce response to the Oklahoma City bombing. Our prediction was that divorce rates in Oklahoma would decrease in response to the bombing, a prediction derived from two different theoretical orientations, terror management theory and attachment theory. We test this prediction in the context of two relatively powerful quasi‐experimental designs, an interrupted time series design, and a nonequivalent control group design. We analyze the time series data with polynomial regression. Results suggested that there were lower observed divorce rates following the Oklahoma City bombing than the prevailing 10‐year cubic divorce trend would have predicted, with the effect dampening over time. We analyzed the nonequivalent control group design using an analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) linear model to compare counties in and around Oklahoma City to those farther away, and to compare metropolitan to nonmetropolitan counties in Oklahoma. In each case, divorces were lower in the predicted directions.     

清代以来洞庭湖区渍涝特征与灾害防治

清代以来,由于人水争地与淤垦分离加剧,洞庭湖区渍灾愈演愈烈,对社会经济造成了巨大影响。湖区社会为减少渍涝损失采取与水妥协及技术对抗两类应对举措。在传统技术相对落后的情况下,以多种经营、政策调整为主的妥协之道显得较为突出。随着生态与社会双重压力的加大,在政府主导下提升应对渍灾的技术能力成为湖区社会的主要出路,并最终走上了一条以近代水利技术为支撑的“逆生态化”发展道路。这一定程度上增强了农业生产力,但却大大提升了生产成本,对湖区社会持续发展的作用有限。     

Tangible and Spiritual Relief After the Storm

Abstract

This study assessed the types of social services and spiritual messages that were provided by Baton Rouge area churches following Hurricane Katrina. Church representatives (n = 157) completed a 26-item survey which consisted of open and closed ended questions. The most common resources provided by churches included food, clothing, and financial assistance. Nearly 75% of churches attempted to connect evacuees with outside state and federal resources. The greatest unmet needs reported by churches included evacuee shelter and housing, and on-site computer and internet access. Churches recommend preparedness, triage care, and leadership for other churches that find themselves the first responders following a disaster. Because of their responsiveness to the needs of communities, clergy need to be trained in disaster management. Moreover, government monies could be well-spent in supporting faith-based disaster initiatives .     

Return Migration and Decontamination After the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Disaster

Return migration is key to community recovery from many disasters. Japanese governments have conducted radiation decontamination efforts in the Exclusion Zone designated after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in order to encourage this outcome. Little is known, however, about the factors that influence post-disaster migrants to return, and, if people are relatively unresponsive to decontamination, then the costs of promoting recovery may exceed the benefits. We exploit a unique survey of Fukushima evacuees to determine the factors that influence their decision to return after a disaster. Location-specific capital characteristics, such as housing tenure and the extent of property damage, are estimated to be strong factors. The radiation dose rate of the home location is found to be a statistically significant factor for intent to return, but its effect is small. We also found that households with various other characteristics were noncommittal about the return option and likely to defer their decisions, which implies that “return” and “not-return” are asymmetric. Our simulation analysis found that the number of returnees encouraged by this decontamination was 12,882, less than 8% of the total evacuees, while the decontamination cost per returnee was 3.36 million USD. This result implies that the government could have improved the well-being of evacuees at a lower cost by policies other than decontamination.     

清代江浙漕粮赈闽及相关问题探析

清代江浙漕粮的七次赈闽,时间上集中出现于康雍乾时期,空间上以输入漳、泉二州为多。赈闽漕粮以海运为主,平均数量约10万石。作为官方弥灾的重要举措之一,清代漕粮赈闽的数量和次数虽然有限,但意义不可低估,不仅凸显了政府对粮食市场的积极调控以及对民生的重视,而且表明了漕粮功能的进一步社会化。     

中国传统伦理情怀的当代价值——地震灾难引发的伦理反思

现代化社会对利益的追求使人们逐渐淡化了传统以血缘亲情为基础、以人与人情感关系为纽带的伦理情怀。人们过分张扬理性，追求个性，结果导致社会情感匮乏、精神贫困。2008年的汶川地震使得中国的传统伦理情怀重新被唤醒，血缘亲情的情感文化所具有的重大价值被彻底表现出来。相信这种人与人之间的血缘情感、民众对国家和同胞的大爱，势必会成为中国今后复兴最为重要的软实力。     

Resilience Analysis of Countries under Disasters Based on Multisource Data

Disasters occur almost daily in the world. Because emergencies frequently have no precedent, are highly uncertain, and can be very destructive, improving a country's resilience is an efficient way to reduce risk. In this article, we collected more than 20,000 historical data points from disasters from 207 countries to enable us to calculate the severity of disasters and the danger they pose to countries. In addition, 6 primary indices (disaster, personal attribute, infrastructure, economics, education, and occupation) including 38 secondary influencing factors are considered in analyzing the resilience of countries. Using these data, we obtained the danger, expected number of deaths, and resilience of all 207 countries. We found that a country covering a large area is more likely to have a low resilience score. Through sensitivity analysis of all secondary indices, we found that population density, frequency of disasters, and GDP are the three most critical factors affecting resilience. Based on broad‐spectrum resilience analysis of the different continents, Oceania and South America have the highest resilience, while Asia has the lowest. Over the past 50 years, the resilience of many countries has been improved sharply, especially in developing countries. Based on our results, we analyze the comprehensive resilience and provide some optimal suggestions to efficiently improve resilience.     

浅谈1941—1947年豫东黄泛区蝗灾

在1941～1947年间,豫东黄泛区频繁发生的蝗灾具有数量多、范围广、危害大等明显特点.肆虐的蝗灾,不仅给豫东泛区的农业生产造成惨重的损失,而且引发了饥荒.为防治蝗灾,当时的河南省政府制定了种种措施,并取得了一定成效.     

近代西北地区自然灾害特点规律初探——自然灾害与近代西北社会研究之一

西北地区是各种自然灾害频发地区，尤其是在近代，自然灾害成灾严重，对社会产生许多负面影响。研究近代西北地区自然灾害，对于更加深入地认识西北社会历史，探讨西北地区自然灾害的爆发规律以及更好地预防和控制自然灾害都有积极的现实意义。     

《聊斋志异》灾荒瘟疫描写的印度渊源及文化意义

《聊斋志异》对危害人类的灾荒与瘟疫,显示了异乎寻常的关心。蒲松龄写二牛相斗,为水灾象征和预兆,是李冰故事的一个变型或日简化,受印度牛崇拜影响。牛瘟描写,显示了蒲松龄博济众生的同情心。疫鬼认识,还与古代中医学的诊断术有关。疫鬼貌丑,体现了人的恐惧和厌恶。佛经描写瘟疫由外而来的思想,对于中国瘟疫天降、瘟神传播的思路是有启发的。印度早灾来自人世冤狱的信奉,对中国故事的伦理性质,以及人间善恶影响灾害、瘟疫使者的思路．也有促进。瘟疫及疗救方法,也启《聊斋志异》之先。