宋教仁的帝国主义论与民族解放思想

宋教仁对帝国主义的侵略特点和战争本质都有深刻的新认识.他在20世纪初敏锐地预见到国际战略格局的新变化,认为日、美、英等国在亚太地区的激烈争夺,必然导致日美之间的战争;同时剖析了欧洲德、奥、意"三国同盟"与英、法、俄"三国协约"的形成与矛盾的尖锐化.认为这必将导致世界大战的爆发.他提出,中国应该利用帝国主义之间的矛盾,配合世界性民族独立解放运动的新潮流,争取中华民族的独立与解放.     

Workplace Crisis Intervention

Summary

The workplace, where adults spend about one-third of their lives, would seem an ideal place from which to promote health and respond to crisis. This paper employs a systematic statistical review of experimental and quasi-experimental research on workplace-based crisis intervention programs. Nine studies were identified that met inclusion criteria for further analysis. Results suggest that the workplace can be a useful platform from which to provide crisis intervention programs.     

Economics of Disaster Risk,Social Vulnerability,and Mental Health Resilience

We investigate the relationship between exposure to Hurricanes Katrina and/or Rita and mental health resilience by vulnerability status, with particular focus on the mental health outcomes of single mothers versus the general public. We advance a measurable notion of mental health resilience to disaster events. We also calculate the economic costs of poor mental health days added by natural disaster exposure. Negative binomial analyses show that hurricane exposure increases the expected count of poor mental health days for all persons by 18.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.44–31.14%), and by 71.88% (95% CI, 39.48–211.82%) for single females with children. Monthly time‐series show that single mothers have lower event resilience, experiencing higher added mental stress. Results also show that the count of poor mental health days is sensitive to hurricane intensity, increasing by a factor of 1.06 (95% CI, 1.02–1.10) for every billion (U.S.$) dollars of damage added for all exposed persons, and by a factor of 1.08 (95% CI, 1.03–1.14) for single mothers. We estimate that single mothers, as a group, suffered over $130 million in productivity loss from added postdisaster stress and disability. Results illustrate the measurability of mental health resilience as a two‐dimensional concept of resistance capacity and recovery time. Overall, we show that natural disasters regressively tax disadvantaged population strata.     

从电影《2012》到"新灾变时代"——从气候变迁史解读"世界末日"问题

电影《2012》演绎的板块快速移动，引起世界范围内的毁灭性灾难其实是不科学的。古今所谓“世界末日”观念，均无科学依据。全新世以来，古气候发展有四个主要阶段，并具有2500-3000年的周期，先后分别是前北方期一北方期、大西洋期（黄金时代）、亚北方期（灾变时代）、亚大西洋期（新黄金时代）。目前，亚大西洋期接近结束，一个新灾变时代即将到来，并将对世界气候环境造成不可估量的重大影响。我国东部季风环流势必遭受干扰，西部干燥化将加强。     

Catastrophe Risk Models for Evaluating Disaster Risk Reduction Investments in Developing Countries

Major natural disasters in recent years have had high human and economic costs, and triggered record high postdisaster relief from governments and international donors. Given the current economic situation worldwide, selecting the most effective disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures is critical. This is especially the case for low‐ and middle‐income countries, which have suffered disproportionally more economic and human losses from disasters. This article discusses a methodology that makes use of advanced probabilistic catastrophe models to estimate benefits of DRR measures. We apply such newly developed models to generate estimates for hurricane risk on residential structures on the island of St. Lucia, and earthquake risk on residential structures in Istanbul, Turkey, as two illustrative case studies. The costs and economic benefits for selected risk reduction measures are estimated taking account of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We conclude by emphasizing the advantages and challenges of catastrophe model‐based cost‐benefit analyses for DRR in developing countries.     

论重大自然灾害作为合同免责事由的原因力

重大自然灾害在合同法上被界定为不可抗力，作为法定的免责事由而免除当事人合同不履行的法律责任。但司法实践中却可能存在诸多的因素导致合同不履行，重大自然灾害可能不是唯一的合同不履行的原因，故在重大自然灾害背景下探讨重大自然灾害与合同不履行之间的原因力关系，对司法实践中处理与重大自然灾害有关的合同纠纷案件具有重要的现实意义。     

非常规灾害事件情景演化的概率性生长模式——基于台风莫拉克的探索性案例研究

使用探索性案例研究方法，对台风莫拉克在浙江的演化过程进行分析。研究发现，非常规灾害事件的情景演化过程与生物体的生长过程具有诸多相似之处，同时又具有明显的概率性。在案例研究基础上，进一步构建数学模型，给出了概率性生长模式的形式化表达，也为仿真模拟和计算实验提供了理论基础。     

灾难情境下的社会心态研究——“生物—心理—社会”研究思路与方法

从"生物—心理—社会"的视角全面地探讨灾难情境下的人们的社会心态变化规律及其特点有一定的学术价值。生物学视角的研究成果表明,灾难后的心理行为变化源于人类前额叶的高级认知控制功能受到应激影响的条件下转变为由杏仁核所主导的快速情绪反应模式。心理学视角的研究分析认为,灾难后的心理行为变化可看做进化心理学和精神分析理论双重意义上的心理原始化过程。社会文化视角的分析认为,灾难后的心理行为变化可看做一种社会文化心态模式从"平时状态"向"灾难应急模式"的转换。这三个视角的研究分析既有内在本质的联系,也遵循各自不同的逻辑,只有将这三个视角结合起来考虑,我们才能获得对于灾难后社会心态变化的全面认识。     

A Bayesian Benefit-Risk Model Applied to the South Florida Building Code

A Bayesian compound Poisson benefit-risk model is described in this paper, and used to evaluate recent revisions to the South Florida Building Code (SFBC). The model accounts for natural variability in hurricane frequency and severity, and uncertainty in the effectiveness of the revised code. Ranges of residential growth rate, code effectiveness, construction cost increase, and planning period length are assumed, to show the ranges of cost-to-performance ratio within which the code will make sense economically. The expected cost of residential hurricane damage over 50 years for ten South Florida counties assuming continuation of previous building practices was $93 billion, equivalent to the residential damage of 5.2 Andrews. Assuming a reduction in the growth of damageable housing in South Florida from 5.5% to 2% as a result of code revision, estimated damages under the new code were $45 billion. At a per-house construction cost increase of 5%, the probability of at least recovering the estimated $40 billion cost of the specified wind-resistant construction was estimated to be 47%. Expected return on investment was estimated at $7 billion over 50 years. The expected return lies between a $44 billion loss and a $47 billion gain, when growth in damageable housing is allowed to range from 1% to 4% and construction cost increases are assumed to lie between 3% and 8%. Actual monetary return for a 5% cost increase and 2% growth in damageable housing ranges from a $20 billion loss to a $100 billion gain with 95% probability, as a result of weather variability alone. Results support SFBC revisions on solely economic grounds, a conclusion strengthened considerably in light of potentially avoided deaths and hurricane traumas. The model represents one approach to evaluating economic aspects of the sustainability of new technological measures on the basis of available information.     

信息化经营对四川农业抗旱避灾的作用

传统的抗旱技术立足于从水资源开发的角度来研究抗旱避灾,但基本上是属于劳动力密集型的“靠天救灾”,技术的含量较少。本文从农业信息化的角度出发,较为全面地阐述了四川农业干旱的状况、信息化在四川农业抗旱减灾中的作用、四川农业信息化的现状、四川农业抗旱减灾信息化建设的思路,以及正确处理信息化经营与传统抗旱技术的关系等方面的问题。